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Hi all,
So what a roller coaster this week - not too despondent as the whole market was down and again, others more so than ourselves, eg EZJ and Wizz and we were pretty much in line with falls for IAG and Jet2. Additionally of course and unique to ourselves, we had brokers giving timelines for selling ahead of the delisting and so investors in Halifax and ii, were the first to hit that timeline on the 15th this week and possibly adding to our downward pressure.
Have been re-looking through our H1 results though and they really give me strong belief in the Company and its future - this one will hopefully provide some cheer:
As we all know, the Company is stating that their EBIT will increase 24 vs 23 by at least 25%!
Within the H1 results, the company states that in H1 24 vs 23, we are already +232m ahead in EBIT. Now add that to the full year EBIT result for 2023 of 977m and you get 1,209m, which already is a 23.7% increase yr on yr!
So I get their 'reticence' in not wanting to over egg and with 40% of the Summer season still to sell, but unless something really dramatic happens - I realise it's happened before with wars etc and could well happen again - but if nothing happens untoward and we get a fair wind, either at the Q3 announcement or the one in September, which is the trading statement ahead of the close period and our full year results (which I personally think will be the time), they will have to upgrade their EBIT forecast for 2024, which will be a boon! Against that opportunity, I don't see any other travel/airline business significantly beating what they've announced to the city for 2024
Hope this helps to add a little cheer for the weekend and GLA
No it doesn't. This share has lost its wings, has empty tank, no captain flying it. Bought big into this as a recovery stock and has gone down and down in value ever since.
I am astonished by the backtracking of the sp over the last couple of weeks. The half year results are in and are not bad but the sp declines. Where is the uplift of the sp going to come from now? Prior to the hyr I was quite optimistic that the sp would consistently grow after the results were announced. I was obviously wrong. Oil price is stable , Israel and Iran have shown they are prepared to attack each other which has brought a sort of stability in the area , Russia is achieving and sustaining their aims which is going to result in a diplomatic resolution so these 3 potential negatives i dont think are really affecting the sp badly. Holiday demand is stabilising and their are signs of price wars. The move solely to Frankfurt will not in my opinion bring any substantial sp increase and we still have the debt to deal with and of course there is no dividend. Sorry to sound negative but what should drive the sp , just isnt anymore. So i will repeat my question to this board. Just what is going to drive the sp up?
Hi masaimara, I'm not surprised you expressing your astonishment of the backtracking in the SP. As you may know, I'm much less astonished. If fact I expressed the view we would see this fall to 550p and below. So... you asked "where is the uplift going to come from now?" - IMO the backtracking has not yet come to an end and I think we could see drops right down to 510-515p as a worst case. As soon as it reaches those levels I think there will be strong buying momentum to perhaps sharply pull the SP right back up towards £6.80p.
Hi mas,
Hope you're well.
You're missing a major piece of the jigsaw ref our SP right now - it's called sentiment and it's been hit ever since O'Leary opened his big mouth a couple of weeks ago and again yesterday at their FY results.
He's basically saying that there could be a 'price war' this Summer as he's seeing a scenario for Ryanair whereby prices will be flat to just up for Summer - previously he was predicting prices increases of 10% yr on yr. But of course this is simply applicable to Ryanair - it doesn't have to be and in fact I don't believe it will be relevant to us - why - because package holidays offer up a much bigger element of moving margin and profit around, as clearly we're not just reliant on selling seats on a plane. Additionally of course we have a cruise line part to our business too, which is flying right now and will undoubtedly have a brilliant Summer and rest of 2024. But, the sentiment part needs to work its way through, which is what's occurring right now.
Simply look at all of the other travel/airline stocks and every single one of them is down and actually many more down than us over the last 7-10 days.
As I say, until we get beyond this sentiment issue, the SP will remain where it is - always unfortunate when sentiment changes just as you release good results, but afraid it is where it is.
GLA
Hi Mike , dont get me wrong , i am hanging in there. I knew Tuis recovery was a long termer but I didn't think we would still be stuck on the starting line at this stage. Next date of note I suppose is delisting day and full entry into Frankfurt. Let's see!
Hi mas,
Many thanks for coming back and don't get me wrong - I was also expecting a better SP - guess as investors who wouldn't. As I say though, this downward sentiment certainly needs to work its way through and is certainly impacting our whole market.
To give you and others some idea of how the sentiment has hit others even more so than ourselves in the last few days, I've been looking at 200 DMA's - I'm not techie at all, but I do know that breaking this line is pretty important etc.
So current SP vs 200 MDA's are:
Tui - current SP 5.43; 200 MDA 5.35
EZJ - current SP 4.61; 200 MDA 4.84
WIZZ - current SP 19.57; 200 MDA 20.38
For completeness, both IAG and Jet2 are also above their 200 MDA's
Ref key dates - guess one will be tomorrow and our inflation print - not sure if Europe does theirs too tomorrow. Secondly, the 5th June which will be the time that Frankfurt announces that we will be accepted within the MDAX come the 24th June 2024 - whilst we won't get any new investors until we join on the 24th; again sentiment might be boosted by its announcement
GLA