Tribe Technology set to deliver healthy pipeline of orders from Tier-One miners. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
A lot of different opinions on this I see, and rightly so. Things are stuck with no obvious solution in sight: TLW has no way to go alone, Kenya has no money to chip in, kicking TLW out has huge potential legal tails, and partners are not committing given the total lack of clarity, mostly from the government side and his financial requests....
So someone must start thinking outside of the box, given that as Anton said there is a hell a lotta cash underground but nobody, as Jmax says, is willing to put cash at work to get it out. What about setting up a new company with, say, TLW and Kenya having 20% each, call it Turkana PLC and, with a clear legal and expected cash flow forecast sells the 60% to the market to fund the whole development? Investors will have to be convinced about the oil extraction potential but will have no other reservations as Kenya will have put in writing at the outset all his legal, authorisation and tax requests. Turkana newco will be equity funded so not suffering from TLW's indebtedness and incapability to raise new cash; if as I expect and Anton keeps reminding us the numbers are compelling, I would happily invest one of my bond redemptions in this new baby.....yes, TLW's earnings will be hugely diluted, but better 20% of the moon than 100% of a pit!! GLA
There must be something happening with Rahul's recent visit to Kenya.
J Bond, I suggested starting a company with the Kenyan Government a couple of years ago.
The Kenyans would like to see the back of TLW, but there issue is that any deal is better than no deal for TLW.
Some on here stated that the tax dispute would be resolved by H2 ?
Another good option J.Bond and proves there are lots of permutations for Tullow to at least get something out of Kenya.... Only issue with a new company is current share price values Tullow at less than £500m market cap for 1.5b shares. We know they need at least $3.5b to get Kenya off the ground, so the new company would need to be worth around $5.8B for Tullow and Kenya to have 20% each and raise the funds. If they issued a billion shares could they sell all of them for $3.5 each? I'm not sure.
One thing is for sure looking at the current share price .... if EPRA are going to approve the FDP by the end of the month news certainly hasn't leaked. Next week is going to be interesting.
Rahul stated that, but not on here
https://www.tullowoil.com/application/files/6317/1102/2450/Tullow_Oil_plc_Annual_Report_and_Accounts_2023.pdf
Page 8
In February, 2023 we announced that Tullow Ghana Limited (TGL) had filed requests for arbitration with the International Chamber of Commerce in London in respect of two disputed tax assessments received from the Ghana Revenue Authority (GRA). The assessments relate to the disallowance of loan interest deductions for the fiscal years 2010 – 2020 and proceeds received by Tullow Oil plc during the financial years 2016 to 2019 under the Group’s corporate Business Interruption Insurance policy. Tullow had also previously filed a request for arbitration in respect of a separate assessment for Branch Profits Remittance Tax of $320 million in 2021. A hearing in respect of this dispute took place in October 2023 with an outcome expected this year.
Anton have you missed the point..
Tlw partner with the Kenyan government on this project, simple.
Good point Anton. There are a few oil companies with very low levels of debt; one is Murphy Oil with sales of $3.5bn and Gross profit of 1.5bn (very similar to our Turkana newco) which capitalises today at $6 bn!!
Another Northern Oil & Gas sales 2bn gross profit 0.9bn and 3.75bn mkt cap.
So around 6bn valuation for the newco is not far fetched: on the minus side a Kenyan asset even if partially government owned has to be worth less than a US one for a simple reason of country risk; on the plus side I think the newco operating margin should be higher, maybe around 50% and at the start will have no debt, while the 2 above have some leverage although less than the average. As I said, numbers will have to be compelling and the operating framework agreed with the government water tight but we could get the cash needed.....
Some are over thinking this or stating the obvious. There were ongoing discussions with two Indian companies and the reason they stalled was because they were looking for clarity on the stakes. When Tlw got 100% it was only ever going to be a question of what stake Kenya would be gifted. FDP approval was/is tied to this. There are signs that there may be agreement. I can't believe Dhir is doing things sequentially. In other words if/when we get approval we'll start looking for a partner. If that is the case, then he's worse than I thought. No need for complex structures - Tlw needs a lump sum and carried interest from India or China. My bet is India.