Tribe Technology set to deliver healthy pipeline of orders from Tier-One miners. Watch the video here.
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Terrace - still hopeful, but in the context of having sold 2/3 of my pre-announcement holding - so I'm certainly not banking on a counter-offer or sweetening of the deal, but I still think there's a chance.
Samson Rock seems to have folded yesterday, closing out its CFD long. But Tavira, like Sand Grove the day before, has converted a CFD long to shares (2.04m of them in the case of Tavira) and added another 200k shares for good measure.
So now we have about 18% held between Sand Grove, Tavira and Cicogne - still probably enough to block the Scheme given general apathy and/or hostility to the deal among retail investors.
Why is there that stipulation in the Takeover Code about not being able to increase a "final" offer? I think it's to stop acquirers laying siege to a company, by saying this is the "final" offer but then increasing it when they don't reach the pass mark and causing more distraction for the company's management. I presume (but don't know) that if the target (i.e. Tef), the bidder (CBRE) and shareholders representing a significant chunk of the voting rights went to the Takeover Panel and said they all want the bidder to be able to increase its offer then the Takeover Panel might agree.
So although a last-minute counter-bid is possible on Monday, I think a more likely upside case is now that the deal is voted down on Tuesday and that CBRE is then invited to sweeten its offer, with the consent of the Takeover Panel, the Tef board and a number of institutional shareholders. And I suppose it's even possible that if all sides accept the vote won't pass they might even present a sweetened bid on Monday or Tuesday so that the vote on the current offer doesn't go ahead.
And the downside remains, IMO, that the vote fails on Tuesday without a counter-bid appearing and without any agreement for CBRE to sweeten its bid.
Your insightful posts on the jockeying for position amongs the shareholders has been most welcome
FWIW I've now sold my remaining Tef position and reinvested in Crest.
Although a counter-bid could still be announced tomorrow, or a sweetened deal, my feeling is that such an outcome was more likely to have been announced first thing this morning after weekend negotiations and my fear is that rejection of the deal is now the bigger risk. If it is rejected though, given the recent arb behaviour, I think that might be a prelude to an attempt at renegotiation with CBRE - subject to Takeover Panel agreement to CBRE submitting a higher bid.
Good luck those of you staying in.
Good luck with Crest