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I'm surprised by the lack of an emergency repair plan for Freeport. Almost like they want Putin to inflict maximum damage to the global economy.
Gas futures are the highest for months so whats going to happen this winter.To be honest its a worry that there will be a severe shortage of gas across the EU which could effect us all
If it stays there it should see the SP edge further back towards the placement price before the end of the month. Follow that up with positive news on flows and Gwinville earnings and we should be set fair for a strong Q4.
NG over 7 tonight chart looking bullish
It will take time to get back to the 90s but, as with iTE and PTAL among others, recovery will not be long in coming. Some of the analysis here has been correct: Capital markets have been worse than tight.
For anyone familiar with peak oil features in the Bakken (2014) and elsewhere the pattern is being repeated for natural gas. The only difference owing to Russia-Europe factors is pricing is unlikely to fall any time soon. Maintenance of HH (MS) premium @ >$10 can only help the company.
On the general subject, although I don't do it these days, mineralrightsdiscussionforum i.r.o. ND and OK counties has been a tool to check lease activity. There's probably little current input in Jefferson-Davis Co. but worth an occasional check.
Also, often incoherent, but useful fodder -
https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard?symbol=v.sou
We are well over sold here if we get some encouraging figures coming out im sure we will make strong progress.The placees must have known this was a good thing to invest so much cash imo
Encouraging signs that sentiment might be turning positive again? A return to the 55p placing price by end July would be nice especially with lots of positive news potential through Q4.
.74 close in Canada up again
That 100k buy at 44p was nice
Lots of hope for this company, annoying to be down 10p on the raise already but we should make it back and then the rest eventually
According to Bloomberg today Germany are already having to draw on their winter gas storage facilities to maintain supplies,thats why we have seen NG creeping up in price in the last few days imo.Question is what is going to happen this winter with prices,we could be in a good place here.
Tom, some of your ADVFN observations are more accurate than you realise. And it is not difficult to figure out why a choke hold has been applied on placees in Canada. I interpret similar constraints do not apply over here but might have got that one wrong.
Although there has been dissatisfaction over disclosures they have not been as meagre as some think, e.g. the HH price for SOUC product is >$10 mmBtu (at a $3.40 premium). Unless recent hedging arrangements have been made on Mt Olive wells receipts will be higher than at the rates shown on -
https://markets.ft.com/data/commodities/tearsheet/summary?c=Natural+Gas
Provided drilling proceeds as planned there are few grounds to believe production will not be well beyond current boepd. On the other hand, following three OK and TX gas pipeline mishaps, we have to accept that some Southerners are accident-prone.
As McCreath, Beynon, Yau, McMurren and Atkinson took up a fair amount of stock on 07/07 there is every reason to sit tight.
NB > I have no exclusive, privileged information on SOUC or any other company. Other than a spot of probing, details are there for all to see combined with a degree of local knowledge.
@Viable.
I'm sure it won't be news to you but are you aware that a huge chunk of IOG's shares are held by administrators?
https://money.tmx.com/en/quote/SOU
Hopefully the start of the recovery.
Equally IOG which has seen a strong revival.
SP up 10% CAD could be the gas increases
SP up 10% CAD could be the gas increases
NG up over 8% @ 6.64 must be a big demand atm
@ 07:25 - TGM, Although I avoid quoting exact content my "sources" are mostly the companies in question. Accordingly my holding remains intact. The same applies to CHAR, i3E, IOG and SQZ although I halved SOU @ 2.10p.
Your avatar reminds me of my biggest holding SHG, also reflecting a modest divi. As a teenager I listened to adults in Ngong discussing MauMau and Rosterman. I am familiar with Kakamega, Bushiangala, Isulu, Ramala, etc. If the years are on your side you will see at least one open pit operation (possibly Ramala) starting in the Lihranda corridor by 2025. I am not saying it will be another Witwatersrand but W Kenya will become the country's gold mining hub.
With the vagaries of an acquisition being mention in the RNSs on more than one occasion I think many believed it would be given including myself.I think a lot of investors have since sold and are still doing so because of the lack of clarity.Even so imo this seems a good investment in the medium term
With the vagaries of an acquisition being mention in the RNSs on more than one occasion I think many believed it would be given including myself.I think a lot of investors have since sold and are still doing so because of the lack of clarity.Even so imo this seems a good investment in the medium term
Thanks Viable.
I can understand a desire to accelerate drilling and if this is now prioritised over inorganic growth so be it. SOUC could be more transparent on this and if they provided the clarity I have suggested ismissing it might help stem the bleeding of the SP.
For what it is worth I would be surprised if we do not see a significant revision of futures pricing around the time of the Freeport resumption. European prices are almost 3 times higher than those in the US. The disconnect won't be sustainable in the mid term.
The silence from SOUC remains a concern. To have said nothing whilst the SP continues to wilt post-placing is a significant concern and erodes trust.
Thanks for the update Viable, can you reveal your source? Also, do you have an indication on when the next batch of drilling at Gwinville will start?
I find it concerning when companies drip out information informally via supposed "insiders" on bill boards as opposed to formal channels (interviews or presentations) and putting it squarely into the public domain for all to see, not least of all because the info put out which I see by these "insiders" has tended to be crap... Which I am not suggesting is the case here, but elsewhere this has been the case.
It turns out that several recent guesses made here have been correct. Plans/projects are to be accelerated rather than being allowed to drift into Q2 2023.
We know marketplace financing was tightening in the face of a global recession. Having a healthy war chest was a prerequisite to forward booking a hightech rig and getting on with Gwinville east. In addition Nymex forward prices into Q2/Q3 2023 are weakening prompting some urgency:
https://futures.tradingcharts.com/marketquotes/NG.html
Reading between the lines we can look forward to more batch drilling. Some of them may occur in wells already held by production. I was wrong on Cotton Valley sites which will not get attention before H1 2023.
Reasons for overhauling plans are better understood and I look forward to Sept/October. Pullbacks are apparent across the board. The only counter is to hold a selection of producing assets with decent cash positions. They include i3E, which gives a monthly return, JSE and PTAL. I expect most stocks to take a hammering until September. Information on CHAR, HMI, IOG and THS, based on medium-term progress, has been encouraging.
Thanks for digging Viable. Look forward to your update!
@ 11:04 - I have had replies from three companies incl SOUC.
All have a similar theme.
Will update shortly.
@Harka.
It isn't just about irrational short term price movements. Those happen all the time. When they happen so soon after a significant dilution at a heavily discounted share price, they suggest a connection. In spite of your take on it, perhaps their message isn't getting through? I personally feel that communications are inadequate (frequency) and sometimes contradictory (content/strategy).
I don't think.you can blame shareholders for assuming that the discounted placement price was to be mitigated by a rapid/immediate acquisition, as is often the case in such circumstances. We have not seen an immediate acquisition so doubts are raised as to the identification of acquisition targets and timing of the placement. Such doubts are compounded when a subsequent RNS muddies the water by introducing the prospect of 'mergers' a message taken a step further in a note from the lead underwriters of the placement that emphasises the prospect of a takeover of SOUC. The same note discusses the use of all of the placement proceeds in Q4/22 to support an increase in drill rate from 15 to 21 wells per year as a catalyst.
Perhaps the share price is dropping to reflect the doubts over timing, implementation and prioritisation of corporate objectives? For example, I have significant doubts that I would see the value of my investment restored to post-placement levels by a takeover of SOUC.
I'm happy for you if you think the road ahead is crystal clear but it seems that many PI's have less conviction and are understandably upset to watch the value of their investment diminish on a daily basis whilst the board sit back and watch. In my opinion there is a pressing need for them to restore confidence and slow or stop the drop in SP.