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I feel for you too, sundance. If it's any consolation, averaging down would have cost you a packet more (as it did me) that you would also never have got back. I got mine down to 15p but was up to my neck for hundreds of k by that stage, almost all of it now written off.
Sun,
>20p ouch. I feel your bitterness, but never say never.
I fortunately bought in early, got caught in the hype of holding my golden tickets and averaged down to a SP that I still believe will give me a positive outcome.
I don’t think GL has made a secret of moving on but he would want to so with a personal positive outcome. Perhaps a total take out sailing in this direction.
My average is high enough to not believe it will be reached, my business but you asked and its above 20 but below 30
And no I haven't averaged down mainly because I don't believe GL enough as lets face it this has been traded to death for the past 10 years and financial reasons require my hard earned elsewhere
And no I don't think it will ever get there even if we hit gold down there and the 31tcf is utter b/s and Ps put it brilliantly,there will be 2.5 billion shares by the time this starts delivering,let that sink in 2.5 billion ,GL will be gone this time next year I think or maybe end of next year ,that's just my opinion,only those who have bought in now and have actually averaged down will make a decent return ,the rest as Mr Ps said , its already gone
Sun,
so you don’t think the SP will ever hit your average, even if a drill hits?
So you were confident or foolish to buy in high but not to average down.
What is your average that it will never reach?
Just curious.
I’m enjoying this ride but aware of the risks and potential gains from here.
With a possible 31TCF to go after the share price will rebound higher if any drill hits pay.
Even with more shares in issue.
I shall hang around to find out!!
Excellent breakdown of what's to come .For all the Peskis and dreamers of the same illusion, please read PS's post, as it's about as accurate as it can be and very well written.I, for one, will go like the wind and away at the first sign that the share price is decent enough to make my shrug of shoulders make me feel not so stupid when I sell the lot .It will still hurt as there's no way this will get the sp where that is my average but I am hoping it will give me something
Crude, you make my point for me. "Remember when X happened" (ignoring the fact that it was before we suffered 90% dilution through share issuance and farm down). I cannot see SOU ever achieving 6p again, let alone going from 6p to 67p. Of course, there's no accounting for the AIM lottery and what might happen. But that would require a whole new slew of "greater fools" with generational amnesia. For the next several years there are too many burned investors looking to get out, not in. I don't think the SoundBoys and sundry shameless rampers are going to tip that balance anytime soon.
Well thank you PS for your candour but it all sounds a little negative. I appreciate your workings but if we have a good day with the drill bit, a following wind & no 'Just Stop Oil' protesters who knows what the share price might achieve in a morning of trading? Remember our share price & value prior to Marciano & Java? Our sp rocketed from 6p to 67p just on anticipation of a drilling campaign. The AIM is a very volatile market so fingers on buzzers when the time comes!
But the AIM is like a casino where many people lose their shirts...it has needed 'Reform' for ages so let's hope we get it...
Crude...Reform is where it's at if we want honest trading & not dodgy gambling!
Punchline got truncated ...
"For some of the rampers on here, they just haven't realised that with time delays and dilution their money is *already gone*"
Tableleg: "Remember the SP last time?"
Rather than bickering about whether share price will soar let's look at where we've come from, which doesn't require anyone to understand "core NAV" and other esoteric details from SP Angel.
There is a direct evolutionary line from the famous statement by Parsons (or one of his sidekicks, can't remember which) that "one tcf to Sound is worth £1.50" on the share price. At the time, SOU held 50% of the Tendrara concession, with 25% for Schlumberger and 25% for ONHYM. We eventually discovered that SOU's 50% meant the £1.50 was actually 75p. There is one third of a tcf recoverable in the TE-5 horste. Now we are at 25p. It is worth bearing in mind that SOU's actual C1 assets in the ground were *never* worth more than that, no matter how silly the SP got.
The 650m shares on issue then has more than tripled and, indeed if the loan note holder continues to convert will be more like 3.5x. At any rate, the 25p has been reduced by dilution to at most 8p. Here you can see the first connection with SP Angel's target SP of 7.6p from last year.
Since then, of course, SOU's share of the Tendrara concession fell to 35% under Calvalley, and 20% under Managem. Since we are comparing it to the 50% held in the Parson's days we need to take 20%/50% = 40%. Multiply by 8p and you have the current target SP of ~3.2p. It's amazing that the forecast holds up all the way from the £1.50/tcf days.
Anyone basing their current forecast on nostalgia for 2017 is wilfully ignoring that the share price back then was overvalued by a factor of 4 compared to actual assets, and has been diluted by a factor of 10 by farming down and by the issuance of shares like confetti over the intervening years. 3p is the new £1.
Excitement over new drilling is understandable, but bear in mind that if M5 was the most roaring success possible (i.e. the whole structure being replete with gas with the same recoverability factor as TE-5) it would only double the assets. SBK-1 is a much smaller affair. M5 would also need a tie in to the pipeline which SOU doesn't have the money for, and would inevitably involve further farming down.
The share price is not going to be 10p or 20p soon, or ever. That is more or less an impossibility. It *WILL* go up from here. The loan note holder are not converting their outlay plus interest into shares for the good of anyone's health but their own. But since they have already made 75% interest and can get shares for under a penny, they only need a 1.5p price to achieve a 3-bagger. At the first sign of a decent rise they will be gone like a hot snot, creating a drag on the price for everyone else. The same goes for anyone else trying to exit stage left at a cheaper price than *you*.
Remember that first scene in The Matrix where Agent Smith tells the over-confident cop: "No sergeant, your men are already dead"? For some of the rampers on here, they just haven't realised that with time delays and dilution their money is a
The last day before Purda & I wonder who here will vote & who for? Or is it, mind your own business...
Personally, I think politics needs reform. There are more parties than ever & they are not properly represented. So we need 'Reform'....
Crude...apologies for O/T but we are at a crossroads.
Must be another bl@@dy train strike, eh Soundboy?
Trains goes choo choo kylie75
Haha, sundance/jobs etc, you're so stupid. i post based on fact. take my post this morning for example. i stated the sp had been permanently hammered by the terrible dilution from the last round of funding. it's a simple mathematical fact. someone who got a D or E in their GCSE can work that out and prove to themselves that's a fact. after i posted that none of you morons have chosen to focus on the company or challenge that, ironically all you've done is fill space and time with personal jibes etc and non-debate about the company, supposedly everything you don't like. are you completely thick? check your emails before you send them ffs.
Totally agree
Those that post negative, unresearched information with out holding stock trying to cast doubt about whatever this company's future is for the shear pleasure of causing others possible stress in their decision in my opinion are mental pygmy,s ,not very bright , in dire need of some form of other past time and or are simply straw chewing, cow dung eating peasants. I will listen to both sides to try and figure out where we are but I will be f*****d if I will listen to trolls and cowards so that's why they have been put on the dusty shelf of ignore a long time ago as there is simply no reason to read anything said ,stated,mentioned but these key board warriors with a very small p888s as it all comes from glee at knowing that they catch their crown and get their name on a BB
F****g morans
Remember this?
This is what SBK-1 will look like :)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hCxHO2w0Zsg
Is there any point in asking for they/them/their rationale? If you debate their points you won’t get a reasonable considered response.
Better just to filter them and with any luck they’ll get bored and disappear.
Good Morning Kyle
Hope this letter finds you well.
Please, I'm new to this and need some some advise from an expertise like yourself.
Can you please highlight the reasons ( bullet points if possible) why I shouldn't have invested here?
What is your opinion about SOU's existence on AIM by next year ?
Looking forward to hear from you
Your sincerely
J
XXX
Kylie75...choo choo
Who would also post 484 times about not putting their money in here ?
You clearly have a vendetta here!!
Plenty to look forward to.
Drill in ground creates lots of interest.
Remember the SP last time?
Kylie,
Kylie quote: "who the fk would put money in here?"
The more pertinent question if I can be so bold, may just be:
Who would post 484 times in such an angry manner with a share they haven't even invested in?
Another Kylie quote:
".....but any mention of trains and i'll shred it."
Yeah?!! ....or maybe just don't print it off in the first place
GLA all investors here
GLA investors
So where do you put your money then ?
Another lala joker post SB.
Anyway. The latest new Zeus and revised SPA broker notes on SOU lay bare the brutal impact primarily of the last funding round put in place. In a short number of months since the original 4.6p SPA target the impact of the delays on Phase1, the delays on Phase2 and especially, if you do the maths, the impact of the convertable loans, with the full term interest payments due WAP around conversion dates has been utterly brutal on dilution. It's collapsed net ownership and therefore upside on this stock now. The irony is, they are now pumping the stock more in JP style wildcat well prospect manner, having trash talked that for years, as they know that's the only way to get any juice out of the sp. In a world of crypto and AI stocks and plenty of dull, boring yet safe alternatives, who the fk would put money in here? Answers on a postcard please, but any mention of trains and i'll shred it.
Train has left...its started it's journey to the promised land.
Soon you won't see the 1p ever again..
Uh, you said the train was leaving the station on Monday. You really haven't a clue, do you?