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Let's hope this doesn't turn into a Koovs share :(
A fair few people on here Goldenegg will say the company is overvalued due to the fact its loss making. I kind of see it like buying the best 16 year old footballer in the world, you pay a huge amount for potential, hoping he turns into the next Messi, Ronaldo etc, at which point that investment massively pays off, but that potential is expensive and cant be compared with fully fledged players in your team. Equally that potential might not be realised and you might end up with the next Freddy Adu or Jermain Pennant.
So a boohoo rise Goldenegg would see the share go up multiple times, perhaps even 10 times to somewhere over £2, but anything like that would be 2 ish years. 2 years because breakeven is forecasted in 2021, if they can achieve that, then start making profit the share price will fly. But there is a huge amount of water to go under the bridge before that happens.
At the moment Sosandar is a loss making company and are paying a fair amount on growth, for each new customer it takes just over a year of an average customer yearly spend to recoup the marketing costs. The business plan relies on long term customer retention, if they can keep customers on average longer then the year it takes to pay of the marketing cost and keep recruiting new ones at a good rate it will be a winner and the share price will reflect that.
At the moment the recent interim suggests the company is on track and customers loyalty is good. However it is earlier doors and things could easily go wrong, customer recruitment could slow and loyalty could wane, then this goes the other way quickly.
Its a proper risk reward situation, working out if it's worth the risk is something no one can really tell you. Read the reports and figures then decide if you want to invest/continue to invest.
But what exactly does a boohoo type rise mean for SOS and over what time frame? - one for you Scott, as an industry 'insider'!
I too bought in Oregon gold and sold leaving in my profit, and then bought into SOS. Call it fate, ironicly, since I've been in the fashion industry for most my life, and only last week found out a close relative has some connection to here.
I agree with Dartmb, judging by the marketcap, this potentially can be a boohoo type rise (within the scale of the niche target market obviously). MM's know this hence the decent rise on the buy.
I too was invested in Oregon gold but thought I would buy some shares in Sosander as it could go places like Boohoo if they can add on more products.
This one. In my pf by default, as I bought into Oregon gold years ago, and hence massively under water here now.
I nearly took out my meagre remnants a few months back at 11p, but didn't, and pleasantly surprised to see it creep up to where it is. No confidence to average down though, as yet, (from the dizzy heights of 474p!) Anyone have a serious view as to where the sp might end up in twelve months time?
Had a nibble.
No real surprises here but for me the the key figures are the £1m revenue run rate, which continued into November, implying annualised GM of around £6m, and the repeat order rate of 1.66 times, increasing from the prior period, implying still some way to go in developing a loyal following of repeat customers (as a comparison, Boohoo averages a little over 2 orders per customer in 12 months).
Burning through the cash as expected, but should have enough for the next 12 months at current spend. However I wouldn't be surprised (or disappointed) to see another capital raise in around 6 months to pursue growth more aggressively if the fundamentals of the business continue to show strong improvement and they continue to build the customer database.
The business model looks sound so far but I'm not expecting a profit anytime soon!
Wowzers busy day today on the trade front with 50 trades to the usual 10 ish ( not sure about the trade of 8 shares though seemed odd at £1.65!?) so I’m guessing with this cold start to November being the second coldest in 10 years sales of winter clothes are going well.. and that coldest November in 2010 was followed by a freezing December, so hopefully more winter clothes being ordered... and no the wife hasn’t ordered anything yet.. although she came back with 3 pairs of trousers from marks so there’s hope for that behometh yet
Hi David. I don't have a Stockopedia subscription unfortunately but I know other sources where I can usually get some info. It doesn't seem that there is any recent broker coverage out there. There are some short notes from Hybridan and a forecast from Edison from December 2018 who are expecting £9.5m revenue in 2020. Based on the trading update of £2.8m for H1 that requires £1m per month, which is achievable considering they did this in October and I would expect to be the bare minimum.
Continuing the recent growth rates, with revenue doubling in September, the higher volume Christmas period, the arrival of cold weather bringing more higher margin cold weather purchases and the success of the recent marketing campaigns, this could be meaningfully higher. September revenue was £0.7m, with October 44% higher at £1.0m, so if they continue the trend of adding £200-300k per month they could achieve a monthly run rate of £2.0m/mth by March, with 2020 revenue in the £12-13m range.
The major unknowns are can the growth be sustained, how much cash they burn through to get there and when the next raise will be...
Tiny top up of £305 ...£800 in all so that will/should be my last happy to see where this travels over Xmas if the wife said shed buy out the catalog ( whether she does is another matter 80% of what she orders from next goes back as it’s in different sizes ) it’s good enough for a little token top up. Dyor as ever and don’t buy on a whim.
Have you looked Stockopedia? It's not exactly what you're asking for but it is a gold mine of information. I have been a member for several years now and each year it has helped me make a profit - easily covering the subscription fee!
Can anyone point me in the direction of some forecasts or broker analysis. Something more useful than
"Zak Mir...gives an overview of the FUNDAMENTALS in this CHARTING update".
Not sure how that works
Ill have to open that bottom draw up on my desk...earlier than i thought...
Market momentum is building nicely. The better range can only help create exponential growth. Could see the after-burners turned on here before long.
Cracking update, rerate back to above 30p on the cards here
Not free unfortunately, but there are a number which do the same job as SimilarWeb. If I am honest I am not sure if there would be a huge benefit other then potentially getting the information quicker. As an investor the real figures I would want, i.e purchases would never be recorded.
Equally and possibly stating the obvious, more traffic is great, but doesn't necessarily lead to more purchases. The new adverts could lead to more hits on the first page, but also more exits from the site. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a reduction in customer visit ratio to purchases, at least initially , mainly as I see Sosandars pre advert customers being very much loyal and motivated to buy as shown by the figures, versus an upsurge in people that have seen an advert and want a look. I look forward to when the results are out, the above is true, and a de-ramper points this out as the end of the company when its sensible to assume some kind of adjustment.
Hi ideaidea1. Web traffic analysis has the potential for stealing a march on the market. SimilarWeb is trying to herd me into becoming a paying customer and will only provide the stats you quote. Are there any similar site you know of which can show the trend in more detail?
A small opening holding of 10000 shares for me today. I missed out on Boohoo for a fraction of a penny so have now decided to enter, whereas I had been waiting for a retrace. There’s currently a bit of smoke and mirrors here I feel, but time will tell and my wife thinks their products are very good. Enough said...
As I reported a drop in traffic a few months ago, only seems balanced to say it's gone the other way. According to similarweb it went from 55k to 133k. Those adverts must be at least generating traffic
with just over 32000, shame money tied up in other stocks. Also made a profit from Boohoo and know somewhat about women's fashion since the family has been in ladies manufacturing for decades and where based directly opposite boohoo's HQ in Manchester. This has great potential imo. There clothing line is attractive and the management seem to be making the right contacts, hence why I've invested. Happy to get in so early in this target market.
Only a little £500 (2401 shares) we will see how this pans out but a long term bet here maybe 5-7 years and hopefully it will have started to push up near the pound mark ( that’s me hoping here!) we shall see eh. I did well with ASOS and boo boo but always bailed too early.. never mind profits a profit and a little fun along the way, DYOR and only invest what you can afford to lose as they say..
Thoughts of the Loggybog
Ref David
Where did all the miners,steelworkers ,cotton /woolworkers, farm workers ~(ect ect)~ go.
PS Look out ASOS 'HERE WE COME'. :-)
Amazon