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This was always around 70p for the last few years but has shot up to £1.11p………why?
Price of resources I would think Bonkermann
Bonkersman,
Do you have a reference to the analyst target of 111p? Thanks.
Fortissimo. Another interesting theory. You do realise a 60% premium on our present price gives us a grand total of around 28p a share. Just a little short of most on here's expectations. I would imagine most on here would actually lose money. Sobering thought.
Bonkerman. The analyst must of read ftdyns post.
"Personally I’m encouraged by the current news void / blackout as it’s a sure fire indicator that serious negotiations are taking place behind closed doors"
I still see USD 75c as medium forecast, or 60p.
I suppose it does not really matter if 60p goes to 111p if we cannot even reach the 30s in the real market.
Hard to get stock in size today...had to break it up into chunks again...eventually got what we wanted...
The Italian,
What's the 'real market'? Is the real market the one that values a stock like Noront at 23cents and then a few months later it's bought out for 110 cents? Or FSTE 250 stock Wood Group real market price some months ago 100p, few months later buyer offers 240p.
I think you'll find there are two markets out there and one is real and the other is a complete farce. You only really know the 'true market' when an offer comes in and is accepted. There used to be a timeline ago before also bots, CFD's spread bets and so on when stocks were valued correctly and buyers or acquisitions expected but with a 30% premium at best. There used to be a time when the stock market as a whole was expected to rise about 3% to 4% per year. These days due to the casino bookies like city index IG et al, the FTSE or DOW can do that in an afternoon session.
It's supposed to be a highly sophisticated market with very smart individuals out there deserving of their millions and millions of bonuses. Yet for some reason, a simple fruit market store can value its stock much better. The Housing market can value stock much better. The car industry can value its stock much better. The farming industry can value its stock much better. But the stock market?? Well... don't go there looking for an expert valuation lol! Those days have past. You'd be better off going to Ladbrokes and even they are better at valuing the odds of success or failure.
Forte, I am not a fan of the efficient markets theory since it's proven that prices are constantly moving up and down away from balance sheet based appraisals, and I also trust that there is a theoretical and rational valuation for SOLG that puts the price to 60p or 111p.
However, until the fair value is achieved, the only "real" thing about the price is the price itself at any point in time because that's what dictates our entry and exit points and therefore our profit or loss.
The only three times I have seen the SOLG price at a level that resembled a fair valuation are in May 2017, briefly in October 2018, and again briefly in April 2022. Otherwise, the 999days EMA has been floating around 25p which is higher than today's price and a major discount to the target prices we keep dreaming about.
So, what is the only thing we have unless a majority buyer steps in and pays some premium to acquire the company? The current price, that's it, everything else is forecast at best and aspiration at worst.
TheItalian,
Forget price. Too many investors are fixated with share prices. Focus on the asset. Focus on the reality that Tier 1 assets never go cheap. They rarely stay in the minnows hands and certainly not with 100% ownership.
That's what you have to go on. You have billions of copper and gold both metals set to be high in demand in coming years. You have a market currently processing mergers and acquisitions from BHP/OZ minerals to Newmont / Newcrest and many more. You have a solid political and robust Ecuador background with historic Chinese FTD on cusp of being signed. A president in Lasso keen on business and keen to deliver on his electoral promises of 'open for international business'.
That's what you have. It's all there. What you don't have is the detail on any interested parties or sensitive info on negotiations. And there's a reason for that.
You have one of greatest copper/gold discoveries in decades. You can focus on that or you can focus on some pony stock market incapable of even valuing its own banks correctly.
‘You have a solid political and robust Ecuador‘
This must be a totally different Ecuador to the one I know of and read about in the news..
Hi Bonkers - which analyst values Solg at £1.11 - thanks
Ortherncopper, you've posted about as much negative stuff as you can on Ecuador so not surprised to see you a bit blinded by what's really going on. Plenty of US influence keen to disrupt Ecuador Chinese FTD that's for sure. But everything else is just the usual mud slinging stuff that goes on in South American politics. Look back a few years and you'll find same old stories being cooked up by various interested parties keen to try and regain some power.
The BBC is a mouth piece for the UK government and you can trust that at your peril.
Your best bet is to try and get a contact on the ground in Ecuador. I have one. And his view is enlightening to say the least. Be careful what you read these days.
We've got DarrenKeery for that.
What say you Darren? Is Lasso about to get lasso'd or are we fine to push on and get SOLG sold for many billions?
Fort, we are veering into rose-tinted-nonsense-cum-conspiracy-theory territory here. Are you saying that the reports of political turmoil in various media outlets are untrue or fabricated? And all the experts and analysts quoted in the pieces just "on the payroll"? I nearly responded to you on here last night when you were waxing lyrical about Lasso and the China/Ecuador free trade agreement being the final piece in the puzzle before a deal was done, but decided the juice wasn't worth the squeeze. But to read you claim that Ecuador is politically robust is pure fantasy.
Lasso is going to be focusing entirely on avoiding impeachment or worse, prison. The charges against him and his associates are real. To date, the US haven't altered their stance towards Ecuador, but there are voices on the Democratic wing of the party who are starting to lobby the administration to reconsider as a result of the charges levied against Lasso. Most are forecasting his chances of political survival as very slim. The idea that he's going to prioritize a China-Ecuador free trade agreement conducive to making mining investment easier in the country when this is one of the main things he is being criticised doesn't make any sense in my book.
We are likely heading towards snap elections and more turmoil if congress goes ahead with impeaching him. This will provide SOLG with a convenient excuse to delay the strategic review should no offer materialize by the end of H1, and Caldwell & co can give themselves another 3-6 months of getting paid to do sweet FA.
SharketMare,
The US don't like the idea of an Ecuador / Chinese FTD. The rest is up to you how you view it all.
News these days is often played around with. Look at Putin. Apparently a drone over the Kremlin tried to knock him off. The irony in this is that the the Kremlin actually allowed a Drone to be right above it. Seriously... if it's that easy to target Russia... then Putin should be embarrassed. Of course it is nonsense news... as there's no way a Drone would get within 100 miles of the Kremlin.
But I guess Putin has to spin something to justify 'what's coming next'.
If the Chinese had any sense, they'd be signing that FTD pretty quick wouldn't they?? Bodes well for SOLG.Don't you agree?
My thoughts exactly…
Only even without any impeachment consequences, Solg will not deliver its SR results until Q3/4… Solgolds ability to adhere to any schedule will not have improved with less people in the office.. it will be pushed back, in traditional Solg fashion..
Maxit and Citi are dealing with the SR and negotiations as far as we've been informed.
What's less people in the SOLG office got to do with anything?
Need to try a bit harder Orpherncopper. But I fear your efforts are futile. Maxit will deliver. You'll see.
Fort, I really don't follow I'm afraid.
Lasso is the most pro-business president that Ecuador has possibly ever had. He's got into bed with the IMF and pursued the neoliberal economic agenda that has been the bedrock of Western economics since the 80s and exported to all corners of the earth when the opportunity has arisen (more often than not a western-backed coup has provided an excellent catalyst for massive deregulation and the "opening up" of a nation's resources to global capital).
Whilst I imagine that privately the US have some concerns over a China-Ecuador FTA, the idea that they would try and destabilize the Lasso administration - which has enjoyed relatively strong support from Biden even after these allegations have come out - doesn't seem plausible given the alternative (the opposition) is likely to pivot back towards great state ownership, fuel subsidies and other protectionist policies.
We just have to wait and see how it all plays out, and hope that SOLG has enough credibility with the other numerous parties in Ecuador as well as the incumbent.
I don’t need to try anything… I hope your right Fort… no one would be happier if they do deliver.. I just don’t believe they will.
Fortissimo. youre now telling us, you have someone on the ground in equador, telling you all is well and they have a stable government. And if that's not bad enough, 5 people recommended your post. I think I've had enough. It's turning into jakanory
Afternoon all
Irwin comment re Solgold
“Waiting for a takeover is one of the most frustrating and painful parts of the investment process. I remember once getting fed up waiting for a a sale of Caracal Oil and selling 2 weeks before the takeover. I left 10 million dollars in the table for my impatience.”
NAL, a genuine question: why do you continue to hold shares in this company? (assuming you actually do)
You have no faith in the management; you don't believe they'll deliver anything via the SR process and perhaps most critically, you believe Ecuador is a basket case which will never allow anyone to develop Cascabel.
Surely, any rational person holding these views would accept their losses and run a mile?
Addicknt, I think you can add Orpherncopper to that post too.
He has no faith in Maxit getting the job done either.
All these apparent investors putting money in companies they have no faith in.
I think they need help!
Sharketmare,
It's complicated but if you google US concerns over China influence in Ecuador or South America's you'll find bucket loads to read up on.
Don't get confused between how they battle things out in politics vs how the news translates or facilitates certain individuals interests. It's well documented that Rafael Correa is behind the destabilisation. The guy is so corrupt that it makes it laughable that he thinks he has a good chance of returning lol while trying to fabricate stuff around Lasso.
We live in funny times where reality used to be a friend of mine. PM Dawn.