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PFS before or after MD&A?
You'd hope they have a plan for the 'flow' of news as ultimately one can effect the other. The MD&A will show cash balance to Dec 31st which could be as low as $12m. So that raises questions right away about how they are going to fund next 6 months or 12. When PFS lands... questions will be asked about what's next? And there's 'exploration' which is much needed but we have no money for. Basically it all comes down to money... without it... we can't progress PFS to DFS. We can't explore. And we can barely cover the $6m due for the 60 odd licence blocks within the folio.
So yes... Scot and co better have some answers lined up or else Mr market is going to get the vasaline out and out on the surgical gloves for a more detailed inspection and that's gonna hurt!
We won't need a DFS and the reason for holding up any PFS update would be to ensure the next funding requirement is secured.
I won't be surprised if NSR is locked in and regional asset is sold in conjunction with releasing the revised PFS.
Scott will counter all your doubts very shortly
BBG,
I'm sure you're right as addicknt stated yesterday... Bob has already said no more equity raises. So any funding has to come from his Osisko buddies if ENSA related or Franco or Mitsui or???. Remember, funds need to be ring fenced for ENSA vs exploration spend. The latter is the same (in my opinion) so any sale of Porvenir needs to go back into exploration and not toward ENSA. So Royalty deal looks the only way forwards on Alpala.
What surprises me is the lack of buying by the chinese. I would have thought they would have nicked another 1%+ from open market with sp sub 8p levels (half of what they paid eg 16p). But I guess one reason is that they might be licked into NDA's and hence trading ban as in negotiations to take Alpala on.
Why Thursday?
They have to be submitted by the 14th and I think because of the time difference they're released on this market the day after.
1984 - MD&A needs to be filed on SEDAR within 45 days of quarter end.
So by end of Wed 14th Canadian time. Which could mean an RNS before UK open on Thu 15th.
Thanks, makes sense! Last few years have been 14th, 15th and 12th
I hope Im wrong, but I expect only the MDA this week, with just a vague, brief non comital mention about the need to raise funds… and no further supplementary plan for the immediate term.. Solg is what Solg is..
Orthern - on balance of probability, I'm expecting the same.
Which would suggest no newsflow planning. No excitment. No clarity on next milestones - IPA, PFS, funding etc.
SOLG need to start demonstrating tangible progress. Not limp soundbites to get them through another few months.
Salaries for nothing at the moment for the people still at Solg towers..
Surprisingly very assuring price actions here over the last couple of days with false drops to encourage sell off then in a few months, release the hounds as they say, once majority of shares in bigg II hands...😉
Just a little more time to hold on guys, AIMHO of course
The MD&A should be quite something in absence of any news beforehand.
Not great news RE rate cuts today following US inflation figures. Rate cut probability cut from 50% to 30% for May. Conversely, I read that in the UK the BoE expects inflation to return to the 2% by April.
Yes novice as you always know what you're talking about it must be right...
Gl
Given that the bank themselves acknowledge it takes 12-24 months for rate rises to have an affect, the correct thing to do would have been start cutting last April
But no. They’re too stupid and can’t see past the end of their noses, so they’ll cause a massive recession instead
All price sensitive news has to be released before they can do any finance / funding otherwise it assists the insiders and that's not allowed. I think Scott knew very well that by the time SOLG hit Mid Feb, the auditors looking at the accounts from Dec 31st onwards would want clarity on going concern statement. So Scott knew he had to have the PFS out well before March 31st. Hence why he updated the market in early Dec about the early Q1 expectation. We know Franco were prepared to do another $50m but I think that was through to Sept 2023. If Osisko got 0.6%, then Franco would want the same now. If they do another round with Bob's Osisko outfit, then it would give Osisko 1.2% and Franco 1% royalty streams.
If SOLG were to do an equity raise at these low levels then it would send a message to the market that the Royalty stream option was no longer on the table as no management tam in their right mind would do 157m shares at sub 10p or even sub 15p when they could do a $50m royalty and buy themselves another 18 months+.
So they need news out first (for legal reasons) and then they can announce royalty deal or any funding they like. They might announce everything at the same time which would make sense to be honest... no point announcing PFS and then seeing the stock sag on known funding requirements.
That's why we're looking at a pretty heavy news month imho and long time overdue. It's been 18 months of utter zero from the CGP boys thus far. Absolutey zero. And don't forget... they'll want to justify their next rounds of bonuses lol! So just watch what happens over the next few days.
Fort I would agree with all you say. My understanding from two weeks ago was that they thought the PFS would be released in a fortnight, that would be tomorrow. However, with leaks usually abound judging by the SP one would have to assume tomorrow looks extremely unlikely. From what I understand they were awaiting some sort of final sign off, which again I assume is out of their control? It makes so sense at all to release the MD&A before the PFS as they're obviously interlinked. Let's hope your prediction is correct and they are released together early Thursday. Who knows. If it's not signed off in time I suppose there's little they can do??
"if it's not signed off in time i suppose there's little they can do??" well, they could go back in time using bob's time machine and make sure they get all the pfs material to the independents on time so they can hit the deadline they set on dec 14th (just 8 weeks ago). of course, if you were playing safe... you'd know there was a 100% chance of that pfs being signed off well before the feb 14th/15th date. it's called being a ceo. that's what ceo's do. they communicate a firm and reliable and reassured message to the markets and they know the damage to reputations should timelines slip.
this is a new management team. one that ****ged off the old crew and as such they need to deliver without fail or else they look weaker than weak and bonuses should be pulled and future bonuses avoided.
no point in rewarding poor management and lets face it, the share price is a shambles largely due to the way this management have elected to moth ball the business and save cash when ironically, all they have done is reduce the ability of the company to raise cash through zero catalysts. i made my judgements on them about 4 months ago when the 12 months i had given was passed with zero delivered and cash burn the same as the year before.
it's time they delivered and delivered fast. and that includes results of the strategic review. moth ball the business for another 6 months and it will be sub 4p. why? because the market hates inaction. hates dead money.
For the millionth time. There is no strategic review
As of last month "we continue to progress various initiatives, including the strategic review" Why do you say there isn't one?
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/corporate-update-pllkjfgpqiitbfl.html
All money in here is dead Drake , atm , I should suspect most of it is already out. Just you and I holding maybe , keeping the SP in the 6's.
Don't you keep banging on about the manipulation?
If you are correct , the money isn't dead ,is it , it's being manipulated.
There isn't one because it simply doesn't take 12 months to evaluate the best way forward with Cascabel. The fact that it is 1) indefinite 2) we haven't heard anything at all in terms of progress either implies that there are no good options, or that the SR is a tactic to buy time while management pursues a sale at all costs. To me that explains then persistent downward pressure on the share price, and leaves us vulnerable and praying for a sale. PFS3 might be our way out of the pickle, if we are able to demonstrate a phased approach that we could feasibly fund ourselves.
Remember, PFS3 is a separate workstream to the SR, and only came about when "fast and smart" died a (quick) death and Caldwell pivoted from "Cascabel has been adequately studied" to "we are producing another study".
Correct, glad someone else can see the ruse but I’m not awfully surprised given the Naivety of the common garden idiot
As they say…
1% of the population control the world
4% are their puppets
90% are sleeping zombies
5% are trying to wake the zombies
The 1% makes sure that the 4% stop the 5% from waking up the 90%
Well you're making the assumption there's no strategic review on the fact there's only one asset, and there's multiple assets, which is the purpose of the review..what to develop, what to JV, what to sell, or whether to sell everything. Just my opinion, you are all welcome to have yours, that the review is fictional.
Ask yourself this instead then, how long do you think a strategic review should take?
What are the options and what are the pros and cons?
I guess most people would understand it could be discussed over a long lunch and decided that day