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Spot on. The reality is that as much as we think it's a bargain, noone is interested.
That's the long and short of it, because if they were, they'd be in now at this sort of price. No not 8p, but certainly an opening offer of say 16p?
Which means we might need to adjust our expectations.
The prize is probably there eventually, but when?
I think I might begin to see this purely as a trading share from now on.
If noone's interested at this sort of sp, you have to wonder when they will be, imo.
Time for Scott to remind us again how fabulous our "Rocks" are! Sp probably rock-bottom now! LOL!
Why would you adjust your your expectations of an offer to 16p when it's based on the asset and not the current share price?
Noront share price was 21 cents and the final offer ended up being 110cents. The starting point of the SP is often irrelevant when dealing with large assets that have multiple bidders.
Of course... someone can always chuck in a 16p bid and see how it goes but I doubt management will gain much backing for it.
Here's some context....Remember, when the world was ending in March 2020 and zombies were taking over or covid actually but the same apocalypse feeling was spread across markets. The Dow Jones plummeted from all time highs of 30k to 18k. SOLG dropped from 20's to 10p ish. The fear in markets was scary. And that's as bad as got for SOLG.
Now here we are with 100% ENSA (not 85%) major progress made on red tape issues, politics issues resolved etc etc... and the share price is 8p!! That's 25% worse than when the world eas apparently ending. That's how stupid the current price is.
But if a seller cares not a jot about price and wants to do damage to the sp, then there's nothing to stop them from selling hard and big. And that's what's happening or happened here.
Remember, when the markets sorted themselves out and realised the world wasn't ending... SOLG's share price moved from 10p to 41p.
That's why you should be revising your expectations on buy out prices on SOLG. The asset has changed at all.
Meant... asset hasn't changed at all. It's got better.
Fort, I get all of that and agree with it.
Now explain to me what needs to change to bring a bid in?
To me the only thing is the review and the lack of anything there doesn't exactly inspire any optimism.
Perhaps it's because we need to realise that the sums don't work as they stand?
And the fact that things are taking so long might mean the company is seriously struggling to make them look any better, even with smaller projects at first?
You may recall I've said for a very long time now that I don't see a bid incoming anytime soon. I've been proved right there, but it's easy to say that now.
The concern is that there won't be a bid at all. Certainly not at anything like what some of us are hoping for.
You're right, there was massive fear during Covid. I remember it extremely well and was kicking myself for not buying at sub 10p.
But now things should be better, yet the sp is lower.
Some think the sp will bounce when the seller stops selling. My question would be why should it more than a small amount?
It's not deramping either (Red).
These are legitimate questions that the market is asking, imo.
And the board needs to start answering sharpish.
Anon3 - BIIIGGGG change from just a few days ago, when you said ....
" This is as cheap as it's been in years and well, it just seemed daft not too.
Here's hoping I haven't made a bad choice! " Doubled my Holding, 6th Oct.
So you are a turncoat and opportunist, obviously bitter that your previous purchase at a smidge under 10p has gone to hell.
Meanwhile, your obsession HUM has lost 50% since the summer.
Anon3,
It's not just about share price reference points etc. It's also about market cap. When SOLG hit lows on March 2020 with the world ending and panic everywhere, the sp dipped to 10p. It didn't hang about there long... I know as I bought a a decent wedge but had to pay 11p for second wedge shortly after. The market cap at the time was about £235m. Today the market cap is about £240m. So not much in it. Hence we are at a comparable to 2022 cap. However, since 2022, we've spent about $100m on ENSA. We've also gone through a dilutive merger which means we now have 100% of ENSA. That's 15% more than 2020.
So if we were to compare apples with apples, then SOLG's sp should be around 4p higher at 12p levels and then that would be representative of the covid lows and end of the world fears.
Assuming the world is not going to end right now... we really should be down here. We should be at least 50% higher near 18p which is probably why you saw a decent placing achieved at 16.5p with chinese and others and Scott and co lapping up some nice options at 17p.
So forget about bids etc etc... that will happen when it happens. But the share price should be 18p+ right now and the market is giving away 10p to newbiews which is absurd.
Kat, yes, I'm so bitter I added more today at 8.4. I still think it's cheap. Ridiculously so.
As for HUM, I'm 10% down, which is a damn site better than I am here, even after today's top up.
A turncoat and opportunist? After holding this for over 13 years?
You know nothing about me, clown and I'd prefer you keep your thoughts about me to your self until you have read a few of my posts and see what I actually think over time.
How many shares did Berry street hold ?
They are the sellers …..
Fort.
Should be. Yet it isn't.
And this bit of selling hasn't resulted in this being 10p down from where it should be, I don't think?
Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see 18p.
I just don't see what's going to get us back there this time. What good news could be coming up? Only a bid or a JV or something of that magnitude, imo. I don't even see a new review result doing it.
And then, as has been pointed out, we have money to last to June, which will soon come round. I believe another Franco type deal is the way to go there, but then, that won't be attractive to any potential bidder, will it?
I don't know, I tink I'm just on a downer today.
I do know this price is stupidly cheap.
With respect anon, I don't think you can say that given several third parties have signed NDAs and have access to the data room.
Another Franco-style deal will make the asset that no one is currently bidding for even less attractive.
Unless you are hoping for SOLG to take this to production, it is not a desirable option.
Production is becoming the only option , but where is the money coming from? This is being bled dry , if we're distressed now wait til the next cash call.
And some here want a change of leadership. It could get worse.
Let's be quiet frank here , this at the moment this is pretty uninvestable until a strategy is put forward by management , and even then its a gamble wether they are being honest , because the track record is pretty poor on honesty.
Don’t be thick, production never was and never will be a viable option for an incompetent explorer.
You see a vintage rolls Royce on auto trader, it needs 20k spent on it but it’s potentially worth 100k
Do you think it goes for third quid?
Thirty
Looks like 30 quid would be a premium.