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Hi guys, is there any particular reason that the share price has tanked this last few month. Is it due to the unrest in Ecuador? Is the army involved or who exactly is at war and what’s it all about? Thanks in advance
Subby probably two things have impacted the SP of late.
Firstly, a lack of news whilst investors await both the revised PFS and the strategic review. This has led to a low trading volume and increased volatility.
Secondly, the recent violence in Ecuador has certainly spooked some investors. You ask the cause and I'll try to explain what's behind it. I could simply say cocaine but it's not that simple. Ecuador is an attractive shipping port for drugs because its sandwiched between two top cocaine producers, Colombia and Peru. Furthermore they are the world's biggest exporters of bananas, meaning large containers are regularly shipped to the US and Europe and are perfect for hiding drugs. Furthermore two Mexican cartels have ensured Ecuador now account for 30% of the cocaine shipped across the globe. These cartels (who recruit the local gangs) are behind the violence as they fight each other for control of the territory. Its compounded by the Mexicans changing from paying the gangs in cash and now paying then in drugs, which in turn increased the violence. The current President of Ecuador. Daniel Noboa has designated 20 of these drug trafficking gangs as terrorist groups and authorised the military to 'neutralise' them, ie a shoot to kill policy. Its important to note the areas affected do not, and have not, affected any mining operations and as SOLG are doing minimal work at the moment, it wouldn't have affected them anyway.
So in summary, some are concerned and have moved on. Most are waiting for news on the revised feasibility study, which the company have said will be 'early Q1' and the strategic review, which is open ended but I assume will come shortly after the PFS.
Subby, nothing has impacted the share price of late.
in fact taking everything into consideration, it's holding up fairly well, compared to some others in ecuador.
STM in particular.
the SP has been in a steady decline for many many months. 18 months ago it was around 30p,
if you look at the charts its been in a steady decline ever since.
recent events haven't helped, but they have not been the catalyst some on here now claim.
by the way, those same posters who blame the violence, 6 months ago claimed it was a storm in a tea cup.
I suggest if you want a more balanced view of solg, you look at hotcopper.
also it's worth noting this is now the third attempt to make the mine sellable.
I believe the first two attempts were carried out by experts, they didn't work, so this latest
attempt is being carried out by solg themselves.
I leave you to draw your own conclusions.
just take the time to look back on some of the mining experts on this boards posting history,,
I think you will find it enlightening
Needa, you say 3rd attempt to sell the mine? I thought alpala was a tier one resource? Why 9s it hard to sell? BHP billiton hair millions invested here don’t they?
Sadly Subby, previous management have managed to alienate BHP, managed to have $4M gone mia, and the current chair warmer of a ceo we have has so far failed to repair the relationship with BHP. Hence, we are paying the price for their mismanagement of the company. Why, even the über ramper has accepted that it will be several later generations of his family that may see the benefits here, assuming Ecuador don't nationalise the asset because we are failing to meet the agreed work schedule.
I would laugh if I wasn't invested here. Silly me thinking we have a tier 1 asset and majors would be biting our hands off for it. Oh no. We have been reduced to guessing what next, blaming posters instead of holding management accountable.
Subby for your information there are three majors invested, BHP Newcrest and Jiangxi. What I would strongly recommend if you're thinking of investing in SOLG is to pay no attention to anyone on this board and do your own research. It's pretty toxic on here, as it is on most boards where people have lost a large part of their initial investment. You have people overly positive because they're overly stretched and under pressure and those who are overly negative as they're bitter and resentful. In short you won't get any balanced option as to whether today's price represents a good risk vs reward. In short, if anyone uses an LSE bulletin board as a basis for investing I can guarantee you one thing, they'll lose money.
"and the current chair warmer of a ceo we have has so far failed to repair the relationship with BHP"
The same BHP that voted to reelect him as a Director at last month's AGM?
Give it a rest, Eloro, you're sounding more ridiculous by the day.
SM, to be fair we can't know whether BHP voted in favour. Holders of 1bn shares abstained and I think we can assume at least one large holder was amongst them. Mind you, of those 2bn who did vote, 99.9% were in favour, thus overwhelmingly confirming his mandate to pursue his strategy.
HereforHemo thank you for some nice post, make good points in a constructive manner and polite.
Please can we have many more like you on here.
Have a good day.
Morning addicknt, given that when the CGP crew took over they sanctioned that Sangha article (there is absolutely no way a hired advisor goes out and says that without the CEO's blessing) in which he trash talked BHP and NCM, even getting BHP to abstain is pretty good going.
FWIW, given their public statements I think it more likely that Newmont abstained if one of the big 2 did so.
SM, I think SC has managed to repair some fences with BHP. In fact he must have done, otherwise they'd have voted against him. As far as Newmont is concerned, we were starting with a clean sheet, so hopefully he's managed to get them onside.
SM, no, I will continue to post my thoughts and observations. You don't like them, don't read them.
I do not believe that the relationship with BHP has been repaired. Last year I was informed that if we voted out the BOD, then we would be playing into BHP'S hands. That statement indicated to me that the BOD still regard BHP as a threat and not an ally. I still have that email which I do not have permission to share.
Where is your evidence to support your assertion that the relationship with BHP has been improved, made better?
As I said in my post - they didn't vote against, which they did with Mather et al.
Why does it need repairing?
If they want to buy us the will want to do this at the lowest price possible. With the size of resources many dirty tricks will be played.
Try to keep them on board but don’t pander to them. They are not your friend . They want it as cheap as possible, it’s as simple as that. If someone else also wants it great, then butter them up to push the price up that’s when you want to be their friend.
Currently who cares if we upset them. They only got upset because we weren’t going t play their game of get us for the lowest price.
I didn't say we did, I was merely pointing out the AGM result, which suggests a better relationship. And bear in mind, when SC took over he said he wanted to repair the relationship. Life is easier without a large shareholder breathing down your neck.
Sorry it was more a general point that seems to get repeated by many that we must appease BHP etc, we don’t.
We have been able raise cash elsewhere but not to BHP liking.
BHP will play dirty tricks to get us as cheaply as possible. They are not our friend unless the come with a large cheque!
Well, being a "Muppet" I don't have all the answers. But from a layman perspective, if you are going to buy a house, would you buy it from someone you have a bad relationship with, or would you buy it from someone you have a positive relationship with? Generally, buying a house via the estate agents, you don't know the owner of the house. But if after you have viewed the house, relationship between you and the owner deteriorated, would you still be inclined to go ahead with the purchase? I would not. BHP bought Oz instead of us, that said it all for me. Perhaps if we had a good relationship with them, it would have been us instead of Oz. Our we don't need them attitude has left us still on the shelf hoping a buyer will turn up. So how is that we don't need them stance working out so far? SP suffering for one.
Buy a house is just not the same as buying a tier 1 asset.
If selling a house to one buyer you are right a good relationship is best. But once in an auction phase and you want t sell to highest bidder you don’t need friendship.
BHP etc will bully their way to buy at the cheapest price using every dirty trick in the book. Think we saw evidence of that with a ceo!
Perhaps we only want Solgold to go to a good home and family? Business on this scale isn’t like that unless you see us going to mine with them in partnership. Currently I don’t see or want that.
Ps never called anyone here a muppet
Eloro I don't belive with billions of pounds at stake the relationship has much bearing on it
They would look to take control and cut the rotten bit out
Global trade and political unrest are the reason for our curant position
IMHO
Aq….. assuming BHP are still interested in buying Cascabel ( or the lot ) I don’t think they’d have much chance if they went head to head with the Chinese ( state ) hopefully they’ll add the competitive tension we require to achieve a decent price
Ddw agree though I’d have to hold my nose if the Chinese buy us out with the world politics as they currently seem t be
I wonder how much BHP will end up paying for the dam disaster? Will it all be covered by liability insurance, or will they have to dip into their own pockets?
Well they can always sell their stake to the highest bidder to cover the cost of the dam claim!
The overall claim is for $43bn. The Moral Damage component alone is $9.7bn. So your suggestion seems about right to me!