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Tiger, good to see you're keeping an eye on those receivables too. They're quite hefty and we should start to see the pile building quite substantially through this year.
As for your $36m for the quarter - not bad, and not too far 'short' of mine :)
What a steal we are at £1.10 my word!!
*far more forthcoming..
Bazzaman. I think velo may be far more forth oki than myself on predictions. I truly respect and love the way he’s reads the market for himself. And for the benefit of others who care to take note, of course. I include myself as one who appreciates it.
As for predictions? Well can you believe siring is upon us and we are hammering through the year. I have a strong opinion on where we will be towards the end of this month but would prefer to keep it to myself, sorry :)
I can tell you it’s north of here though. I think April in to May could well see some heavy movement.
Hi All!
The pullback (IMO) was due to Africa Asia (i.e. Samancor) unloading heavily before the end of the quarter - presumably this was due to the broker needing to meet some pre-agreed target. Hopefully, their selling will now slow or stop.
As for profits, I'm going for around $36m this quarter, which would comfortably be a record quarter for Sylvania. (I think the record to date is $25.4m from Q1 2020 (i.e. just before the pandemic hit). Also, there should be a strong increase in the cash pile as the very high "trade receivables" number begins to normalise.
Essentially, SLP's biggest problem is that it has too much money. Which is a high class problem to have - especially on AIM!
Velo: Could it be some sellers selling for various reasons at the end of the tax year?
SP, It's an illogical move looking at the company and PGM basket. The drop last summer to 38p was surprising, bought in then, regretted not really loading up at that point, then look what happened?
Last year the 3rd quarter results was on Tuesday 28th April, w/c 26th April 2021 for this years. Results should be best ever based on the increasing average basket price. Any predictions Velo/Stoodio that you're willing to share yet?
BOL
And boy will they be showing us the money at the end of this month!
*Previous post littered with spelling mistakes, apologies.
And finally, far more importantly than anything any of us have going on with the markets; I hope everyone is well.
Be happy, be good and stay healthy :)
Morning Velo et al,
Interesting points my friend - I should probably do more of what you do so far as self assessment on my holdings. I do , but not nearly as frequently as you I feel. Truth is, I'm a busy guy (no excuse) and am always long and strong on investments.
FWIW, gut, yes that's to be read as gut instinct, tells me April is going to be an interesting month. We're at a bit of a crossroads here I feel. There's a far bigger pictures at play on a global scale that filters down into all macro economics. SLP has for the past few weeks behaved in what for me, is somewhat of an irrational manner that I've seen a few times. I have also indicated previously that the SLP share price has the innate ability to really move, in either direction, for somewhat curious, or questionable reasons - reasons I don't really understand.
The way I mitigate these anomalies in my mind (without fear or panic taking hold!) is to retain my 'eyes on the prize' approach. It's served me very well indeed over the years. For SLP, it simple comes in the form of operational progress and a "show me the money" approach. And they always do :)
Been reviewing my outlook over this current pullback. Gotten so used to any little pullback being so short-lived that I ignored this current pullback by expecting similar to all others that went before - lulled as I was by the strong and very protective long-term bullish uptrends (see below at foot of this post).
What started me reviewing matters, was a little bird perched on my shoulder chirping : What are you doing? - when I carelessly, without a bye or leave, let an old buy-order trigger randomly because the strong uptrend had made me 'snatchy' at any passing pullback. I've been ignoring my strategies for such a contingency.
However, this current pullback although 'normal' by non-hot stock standards, is the longest downtrend since this latest, current bull run, commenced at the v beginning of July last year.
I'm slightly taken aback, that the very fast-acting Ultra Short Term trend is still bearish, although admittedly it is now narrowing in the right direction.
The Short Term trend is looking hard and unperturbed - and it shouldn't be. Its suitcase should be half-packed by now!
Worse, the Intermediate trend is quite narrow, dark and threatening, where it shouldn't be - but anyway, officially, is still bullish.
All in all, as things stand tonight, need to see some decisive action next Tuesday, as the shorter term trends are happy where they are
- bearish.
It's quite rude of them not to leave when the door has been held open for them and their hats and coats are being held out
- but there they are, with their bearish feet on the coffee table sprawled out, with no hurry in their demeanour to depart at all.
It reminds me to always be ready to expect 'the impossible' on the stock market, and keep plans more to the forefront on how to deal with each of them, not let them creep up on you, and that's what I've been reviewing today.
I think this is all to do with my average price racing upwards in Olympic sprint style with all my recent topping-up's. It impacts on one's outlook as risk is proportionately increased with the increased holding.
'
----------------------------------
SLP Currently -
Price to 200 day ma trend .= BULLISH!
Long term trends . . . . . . . . = BULLISH
Medium term trend . . . . . .= BULLISH
Intermediate trend . . . . . . = BULLISH
Short term trend . . . . . . . . = Bearish
Ultra-short term trend . . . . = Bearish
Hi Nimrod!
A useful article. But it doesn't mention rhodium, which is crucial for reducing Nox ICE emissions, and which is in an intractable deficit. And it doesn't include NorNickel's production problems, which will push the palladium market further into deficit this year.
I'm often a buy the rumour sell the fact, on this occasion I might hold onto this one.
Well it worked well because the price started moving up !
Even though I have a fairly full holding of SLP bought at much lower prices, I have decided to ruin my average buy price !
I have placed a few low buy orders in, just in case we get a repeat of yesterdays flash dip !
If I don't get them so be it, but if I do I can always sell after the reversal for a small profit.
Hi Nimrod
The company has a very clear plan on how to use their funds. Latest reports explain rather well how they are deploying their funds to grow the business with mineral asset development and opecast mining projects.
Some of these are coming online in the not too distant future:
"Volspruit Platinum Opportunity
Detail design for the Permitting Applications has been completed. Specialist work for updating the EIA and Water Use License will commence during Q3 as part of the overall process to conclude the final project authorisations. "
Other capital projects invoke improved processing facilities to extract even more PGMs from tailings and various other process optimizations.
Looks like they have a very good idea of what they need to do with the cash.
People often think that shareprice = business performance and try to explain everything in those terms (efficient market theory). I am not I'm that camp. Markets are driven by people. And a species we are a lot less intelligent than we delude ourselves to believe to be. In fact, we are generally emotional, irrational, slow and unreliable. And so are markets. Some investors use this insight to their advantage ;)
112.5 showing as current live price right now, also this site up above now displaying 112.5 as the close for last night!
???
Velo - yup some interesting, (read as, somewhat manipulated) movement on the SP yesterday.
April fools? I'm expecting zero fools gold at the end of the month :)
Odd close tonight. All my usual/regular stuff is showing 109 close, yet the final arbitrator of disputes - the London Stock Exchange itself, is showing a close of 112.5 ! (Both Yahoo & Google also going with a 112.5 close).
Only seen 112.5 in three other places - most other sites going for a 109 close.
So makes it a bit messy for March.
Bare in mind the first day of March open & closed circa 116/118
- So whichever close you take tonight, it is still a little outside my original thoughts of a barely changed close by the month end, compared to it's open. But tonight's close is worse than the 'low confidence' forecast by the seasonality computer algos.
Whatever, all in line with the unimpressive, quiet spring to summer months that the seasonality algos were/are displaying, albeit with low confidence
- until the July/August period that is, where the next high-confidence months by them kicks off with some decent gains in that period.
But March as an open/close month was lack lustre, despite the intra-month highs leading us on a merry dance of greater expectations.
are always penalised for having too much cash, and no obvious plan to use it. Spending the cash is easy and should be very carefully scrutinised, better to buy in to tailings/assets when prices are off the boil for longer term growth.
Closing price was around 109, so a few % down from yesterday.
475,000 trade marked as sell at 108p just after close. Interesting!
Wow, who would have thought a close today at exactly the same price as yesterday 112.50. A day of very strange price action. Still, todays huge long candle forms an excellent hammer at the bottom of a downtrend, hopefully indicating a reversal from here, or at least a good solid bottom for now.
Wow indeed!
Stu - calm fella!!
P
Yes Dicky, and who doesn't like a nice firm, umm, bottom :)
Slyvie performing just as she does on many many occasion. She pulls back, allows you to mount her, then takes you on a wild ride :) Sexy b**ch.
Wow, who would have thought a close today at exactly the same price as yesterday 112.50. A day of very strange price action. Still, todays huge long candle forms an excellent hammer at the bottom of a downtrend, hopefully indicating a reversal from here, or at least a good solid bottom for now.
https://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/fund-betting-7-4-billion-on-platinum-miners-sustaining-rally
https://www.investing.com/analysis/autocatalyst-king-palladium-seen-cruising-into-april-after-stellar-march-200570237
https://www.valuethemarkets.com/2021/03/30/iridium-rare-commodity-outperforms-bitcoin-price/
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/platinum-etfs-will-benefit-from-advances-in-hydrogen-fuel-cell-tech-2021-03-26