The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode with multi-award-winning fund manager and international bestselling author Lee Freeman-Shor has just been released. Listen here.
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25 March 2020
AstraZeneca to invest $80 million through upfront cash and equity investment in Silence
For each disease target, Silence is eligible to receive up to $400 million in milestones, plus tiered royalties
Companies to collaborate to achieve delivery of siRNA molecules to liver, heart, lung and other tissues
Silence retains the option to co-develop two programs discovered through the collaboration
Webcast and conference call today at 1pm GMT
Wow what a deal.
Hope everyone is doing fine in lockdown. I did not even know about this deal until last night. Looks like things at silence are carrying on to plan. Which is astoundingly good news.
Personally I would consider this the extra-hepatic deal (being outside the liver), but no mind if others feel differently. It's a big deal and likely/possibly the only deal of this magnitude this year in RNAi given the others dance cards are full.
Cash is not a problem at silence, must be around USD110m(sorry lockdown/kids time constraints to check exact number). That gives the market in current conditions a big vote of confidence. No way can anyone imply that the platform isn't validated with multiple partners now. Still plenty to look forward to:
* New CEO end of Q2
* List in the US 2H
* File this IND for SLN360 2H
* Deal for SLN360 Q4/Q1 21
* Quark results as always delayed... Maybe Q4 now but possibly earlier
* MNK making another milestone payment
* MNK executing other options on 2 assets
* Announce other proprietary assets 2H
* Takeda transition to an actual deal
* possibly another pay to play deal like Takeda
* Sln124 now 21
As always this getting taken over is always a possibility. The value created yesterday imho isn't reflected in the share price because of current market conditions. As the flu passes this will grind higher I think, but possibly jump as it has done before.
In 1-2 years the PowerPoint presentation for SLN will have about 15 targets on it... At that stage the presentation is going to look very similar to... ARWR/Dicerna. The value inflection point has been reached but is not yet reflected in the current share price. Dyor, place your own bets. This one is a keeper, with that cash in the bank and the brightening outlook for drug R&D... It's not one to lose sleep over.
Well done all that managed to keep some of this in the current market turmoil. Last few weeks have been brutal.
Gla
Been out of shares for about 8 years but back in the game now, following the market crash. This caught my eye yesterday and bought in on minimal research. Will do some more research shortly! Thanks for the post - interesting stuff and some keywords that will help me research further. Cheers. :)
I see Edison have upped their valuation: "We have increased our valuation to £462m or 559p per basic share, from £345m or 440p per basic share."
Hopefully this will really fly now. A substantial collaboration with AZN is gold dust, and SLN are talking to other big pharmas too. Amazing.
Edison is a good read for what's going on. But their valuation methodology isn't forward looking. One only needs to compare their last report to this one. No value for any future deals... and that is one of the main reasons to invest.
In addition, as an example it's very certain that the IND for SLN360 will be filed at the end of the year, which will move sln360 to phase 1 and a 15% probability of sucess. That will add 167m in value on their model. Given its likelihood... The market ain't going to wait to price that.
But who am I to criticize their valuation. If this follows the same path that ARWR and Dicerna have laid out it is reasonable to assume 8-12 end of the year imho. With a few adjustments to the Edison model with what one expects to happen... One can get to those numbers.
Gla dyor