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What some may be missing is a wider sector perspective. There have been some brutal sector de-ratings recently,. GSK is down from well over 17. AZN slumped then rallied sharply again. Novartis over the last 2 years went from near 95 to 68, and now back over 80 again.
There is absolutely no suggestion of that from me, want to make that abundantly clear.
If Ornskov, the CFO and the board have been lying and cooking up figures re: results and EPS as some here have suggested then this would be a federal crime surely and they all deserve to be in jail?
If Shire continue to generate anywhere near current levels of free cash flow, the SP will ultimately re-rate. Would agree on current uncertainties, however risk/reward medium term looks interesting IMV. It may get more interesting!.
Smoking Joe, Great post and sums up the unknowns very well.
I think weighing up the current price it is this low due to some unknowns, namely. 1. Is the Baxalta merger really going to be value adding for amount paid (still to be proved long term) 2. What effect will potential Roche drug approval and launch have on that aspect of Shire business. (IF approved what will be the profit impact and can shire mitigate with other strong launches and current drugs xiidra, lanadelumab etc)? 3. Is the debt coming down quickly enough and are repayments easily met by future sales? 4. Leaving Financd director, will New appointment be a respected industry figure? 5. ADHD spin off, if it happens will we get a decent price? Lots of unknowns and as these become clearer the price will react, at the moment there are quite a few key hurdles holding this share in a range. Haven 3 data from Roche trial without inhibitors due out this month, is one of the first crunch days. Personally I think even if Roche drug had positive data shire won’t lose as much share of market as people think, however the market usually over reacts so bad data could see a huge mark up and vice versa. It’s a risky time to be holding, with so many questions about to be answered in next few months, but share price does look like a lot of bad news factored in. All my opinion and dyor.
This has been mentioned elsewhere - the recent conference call was highly positive - just my take. However, I think everyone may agree that short term the last acquisition has gone down like a lead balloon. That may change, my own view is it will. However as always, reserve the right to be wrong!.
Ask to speak directly with Ornskov CEO. His email is fornskov@shire.com You have almost half a million invested here. I would ask about finalisation of spin off plans, lack of director buys, share awards, addressing market concerns better, manipulation of the stock price etc.
Any views on how the trump administration may change the prospects for Shire?
Tom, I would not judge you fullstop, takes guts. And fwiw, It may well pay off handsomely longer term.
I have had a discussion with Head of IR. He said very little. Rattled of typical IR bull.
So about £400K invested here then?! I think you should be discussing your concerns directly with the CEO and the Head of IR. My investment is tiny compared to yours.
Before you judge me too harshly, it is the majority of my pension fund built up over 30 years. I can't actually get my hands on it yet. I forgot the bit about diversification of portfolio.
10,000 shares? 10,000! Bl..Dy hell.
Andy, Low 40s but 10,000 shares. Stupid and very Ouch!!
Tom, you must have been quite unlucky with your buy prices if sitting on a.. huge loss, or have bought a huge amount.
Mulder, You can keep repeating this data but this is already in the public domain. At the end of the day big investors appear to be avoiding this stock like the plague. They have their reasons but I suspect that these include very high debt, expensive past acquisitions, lack of dividends, no funds for expansion, no longer seen as a growth stock etc. I'm playing devils advocate here as there are 2 sides to every story. I really want this to rise but despite all of the 'good news' in the Q3 results, investors are still staying away. Why are they doing this? They must see more bad things than good things. FO has to take responsibility for destroying shareholder value but he appears to be doing little. The only people making money here are the SHP BoD as their packages are ridiculous and not wholly linked to the appalling share performance. I have a horrible feeling that we could be visiting new lows before long but I hope I am way off. Off course, sentiment could change very quickly too and this could be in the 40s before you blink. Would love this to happen. Would be happy to see an offer in the low 40s from someone. In fact, would love to see an new investor/institution take or increase a significant stake. As you can tell, I have no idea what I am talking about .............;-)
Revenue H1 2017 HAEMATOLOGY $1.8Bn GENETIC DISEASES $1.4Bn IMMUNOLOGY $1.4Bn NEUROSCiENCES $1.3Bn INTERNAL MEDICINE $0.9Bn ONCOLOGY $0.1Bn OPHTHALMOLOGY $0.1Bn A well diversified business regardless of what Roche may or not do with their competitor haematology drug. H1 Revenue of $7Bn vs $3.9Bn H1 2016 - up 77% Operating Income H1 2017 of $2.2Bn
GSK Shareholder equity - all intangibles/goodwill = -$26Bn ASTRAZENECA Shareholder equity - all intangibles/goodwill = -$22Bn SHIRE Shareholder equity - all intangibles/goodwill = -$21.7Bn So better than GSK and Astra + that figure will be down by another $1Bn come January. Debt concerns massively overblown.
However have no issue with short sellers, or those with a different view. If people get upset about daily share price movements they may be holding too many shares. PE is often a rudimentary valuation measurement, it takes no account of net debt. No one who posts here makes the slightest bit of difference to the Shire share price, worth keeping in mind. Best of luck, whatever your position.
I believe that speed off debt repayments will drop, and so do few experts. Gsk is pharma sec. shp biotec. Gsk azn.... pay huge divi ( as does rdsa , rdsb....) using debt, sometimes, shp does not but has most generous remuneration for bod. All those share options bod buys at 1/4 off the price somebody has to pay for. Have a look how many shares wore issued and added to total issue ended in pockets of bod, as a percentile. On general valuation, as seen by u, questor and who ever is a fan of shp I agree, especially comparing to likes of JE. Markets asr seldom realistic, magnification is the name of the game.
Sorry but your debt calculations are all wrong. Shire has a debt:equity ratio of 1.07 Current debt:EBITDA 1.85x This is far better than its peers. GSK has a horrendous debt:equity ratio of 10.9 GSK current debt:EBITDA is 7.3x In just 9 months this year Shire's debt is DOWN by $3.3Bn; that's almost 10% of total debt and equates to >$1Bn reduction every quarter. I would re-check your figures.
I was wrong before and I could be wrong again, but so wore the experts. I told u if no faul play by bod it is rubber band play and should you hold on to Ur positive and optimistic view of this mare u ll do ok, eventually. In the mean time I�ll ride it close 1 expensive massive debt ( 7 years to pay back all being same) given by those hedging it for good measure. 2 diminishing growth ( more likely than not) if any 3 uncertain future as in regs, r&d, licence-generics 4 constant one-offs , write downs, greedy bod I�ll stop here, rubber band effect goes both ways so it is not inconceivable that sp will rocket again. As to numbers, when bod decides to present those as a GAAP I�ll take them more seriously.
Again you seem very certain there will be no imminent bid and also negative on forthcoming spin off plans. Do you have an inside source? Both Questor and the FT have been tipping Shire as a M&A target - do you know more than them?? QUESTOR - SEPTEMBER 2017 Look past the uncertainty and buy Shire for its growth and takeover prospects http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/09/02/questor-look-past-uncertainty-buy-shire-growth-takeover-prospects/ Activist fund seeks break-up of �35bn pharma group Shire OCTOBER 2017 Sachem Head has told Shire it wants the FTSE-100 drug-maker to spin off several divisions, Sky News learns. http://news.sky.com/story/activist-fund-seeks-break-up-of-35bn-pharma-group-shire-11079901 Can you justify and explain why you think EPS is actually $3/share not $5 as the company claim? Also waiting on your 3 reasons for shorting Shire.
Where-is-my, No I'm no shorter. I would not know how to. I am negative because I'm struggling to find too many positives with SHP. It easy for everyone to say how under-valued it is but market forces tell us a very different story. You are right, I could dump my holding but I hate crystalling such huge losses. I live in hope that this recovers but I don't see that happening any time soon.