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Started: getafgrip, 30 Jun 2024 11:53
Last post: getafgrip, 2 Jul 2024 12:43
Shell look to be approaching a number of SP targets in the lead up to the 2nd Quarter results announcement on the 1st August 2024. Shell is very close to the previously broached £29, nearing the top of its 52-week trading range 2,251.00 / 2,961.00 (Source: London Stock Exchange), and the elusive £30 barrier.
With news such as: Shell has paused construction at one of its biggest energy transition projects, a huge plant in Rotterdam that was intended to convert waste into jet fuel and biodiesel, Sawan is showing repeatedly how ruthless his approach to addressing market conditions & cost cutting can be. For now the best that competitors such as BP can hope to do is at some point copy and imitate Shell.
End of the 2nd Quarter, with Brent at a reasonable level throughout, streamlining & focus on oil & gas, divestment of what are strategically viewed as superfluous low earning renewables, significant cost cutting taking place, together with indications that domicile in the US is being actively considered. Driving season in the US, a possible escalation of the Israeli confrontation with Hezbollah & other geopolitical tensions. The SP appears to have quite significant momentum at the moment, so hopefully this will continue through the 2nd Quarter results announcement on Thursday the 1st August 2024.
Started: pre2rcd, 30 Jun 2024 10:52
Last post: pre2rcd, 30 Jun 2024 10:52
Started: getafgrip, 30 May 2024 09:03
Last post: Jezzoo, 23 Jun 2024 09:12
He's probably not even a man in his own household.
Why would Labour want to get gas and oil out of the North Sea area when they can pay their communist friends in Russia and China to supply all our energy and goods...Is President Xi and Putin Labour Party members? Maybe just keep on buying Energy from the Saudi's and Gulf States as they also have really good human rights records like China and Russia. And there was me thinking SIR Kier was a man of the ordinary people? JMO
Getafgrip, great news they're exiting NS, maybe Starmer will realise he needs to be nicer to the UK's friendly Oil and Gas cos, just maybe ?!!
Labour Government set to shut North Sea O&G industry down, isn't that their manifesto commitment?
Started: Littleaston, 21 Jun 2024 12:16
Last post: Littleaston, 21 Jun 2024 12:16
Pay day Monday 24/06/24, 26.94p per share dividend.
Started: driftking27, 13 Jun 2024 15:09
Last post: Kokomo, 21 Jun 2024 08:49
Middle East tensions seem to be on the rise again.
“3 UK oil stocks to invest in as Middle East tensions rise”
The year 2024 has faced many headwinds so far – but arguably the most devastating has been the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
With far-reaching implications, some of the markets most impacted are global oil prices.
The top three UK oil companies to invest in as Middle East tensions rise
Shell (LON:RDSa)
Harbour Energy (LON:HBR)
BP (LON:BP)
https://uk.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/3-uk-oil-stocks-to-invest-in-as-middle-east-tensions-rise-3441443
Just been watching Total SP again around 3% this week, but has just about lost it badly down 4% since Wed compared to both SHEL & BP after oil lost direction and FEDS not giving away much on interest rates.
Started: getafgrip, 3 Jun 2024 19:54
Last post: getafgrip, 3 Jun 2024 19:54
Started: getafgrip, 2 Jun 2024 11:39
Last post: getafgrip, 2 Jun 2024 11:39
Bloomberg states that there is OPEC+ outline agreement on another 2m bpd of cuts
Started: getafgrip, 2 Jun 2024 11:33
Last post: getafgrip, 2 Jun 2024 11:33
But, it looks likes an additional 2m bpd has been agreed:
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-seen-prolonging-cuts-2024-into-2025-two-sources-say-2024-06-02/#:~:text=LONDON%2FDUBAI%2C%20June%202%20(,and%20rising%20rival%20U.S.%20production.
Started: getafgrip, 1 Jun 2024 09:39
Last post: getafgrip, 2 Jun 2024 11:27
Reuters views on OPEC + meeting today, partially held over the Internet, but also with OPEC + members invited to a meeting in Saudi.
The importance of US production is emphasised, bearing in mind that a maximised production level of around 13m bpd is around 12-13% of World demand & has a significant impact on both supply and price. Does the US want low gas prices with an election looming - yes, it certainly does!
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Gas-Prices/US-Gasoline-Prices-Continue-to-Drop.html
Started: surprised, 30 May 2024 12:35
Last post: surprised, 30 May 2024 12:35
Shell plots job cuts in offshore wind division .The oil giant is continuing to shift from green energy
Shell is preparing to axe staff in its offshore wind business, as chief executive Wael Sawan pursues a move away from renewables. Cost increases have affected the entire offshore wind industry.
Shell are expected to begin cuts “within months” and will affect staff in Europe, according to Bloomberg.
Last summer, the chief executive set out plans to slash “structural costs” by as much as $3bn by the end of 2025 - partly by reducing exposure to renewables projects
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/05/28/shell-plots-job-cuts-in-offshore-wind-division/
Started: Boyobach, 6 May 2024 17:30
Last post: getafgrip, 30 May 2024 11:02
MrP - unfortunately it looks like he is not joking - the same litany of drivel is cut and pasted across multiple threads. The confusion of his VIX readings analysis, indicates his tenuous grasp of the subject!
When he ventures out into very basic economics theories and views, he gets even more confused:
"Lowering interest rates is only going to do one thing, it’s going raise inflation numbers duh."
Reminiscent of a scalar in a sense - in that he has force but no direction!
Throughout the past 10yrs, low VIX readings have preceded stock weakness resulting in shocks to stockmarket movements, and high VIX readings have preceded stock strength.
Are you joking?
I’d disagree with your preposterous comment on whether you should sell your SHEL shares.
Firstly, look at the VIX today, it’s showing a true lack of complacency in investors thinking everything is great.
You should follow this VIX trading theory;
When the VIX is low ( NOW ) time to go;
when the VIX is high, it’s time to buy.
Throughout the past 10yrs, low VIX readings have preceded stock weakness resulting in shocks to stockmarket movements, and high VIX readings have preceded stock strength.
I can see a mean pullback from these leve. When. In next couple of months.
I base this in interest rates NOT being lowered.
Lowering interest rates is only going to do one thing, it’s going raise inflation numbers duh.
Get ready to buy when you see the VIX reaching at least 19-20
Hi Ggp I agree your comments about the company and CEO and I believe the momentum is still upward at the moment and that’s why i’m still holding it. But that’s just my opinion and so I try not personalise it and remember the quote “Markets are never wrong – opinions often are” from Jesse Livermore and I just let the Stock price to confirm or contradict my opinion and because the Stock doesn’t know I own it let alone care.:-)
Larry,
Some great views, particularly on compounding. One of my favourites on whether to sell shares is would I buy them today. if the answer is an emphatic NO I know whether to sell them!
This time I was very edgy about having sold Shell - I just think there are so many positives for them at the moment. Cometh the hour cometh the man & for me Wael Sawan will prove to be one to follow!
Started: NoQuestionMarks, 20 May 2024 11:17
Last post: NoQuestionMarks, 20 May 2024 11:17
Unite the union have a 'No ban without a plan' campaign to support the oil and gas industry.
Please sign and share the petition wherever you can.
Labour won't listen to shareholders but they WILL listen to a union.
https://www.unitetheunion.org/campaigns/oil-and-gas-no-ban-without-a-plan
Started: moniman, 19 May 2024 19:41
Last post: moniman, 20 May 2024 08:24
It would appear that if Shell moved its listing to US markets its valuation would be much higher. Seeing as the BOD are responsible for enhancing shareholder value, surely they should move the listing to US market?
Started: SquirrelHead, 7 May 2024 14:32
Last post: SquirrelHead, 8 May 2024 08:36
Thank you Benbow27 and Lending
I only have the ordinary UK B shares, I will see if iWeb platform can do these calculations.
Mike, to answer your second question:
‘HMRC already had the power to ask platforms for information. From 1 January 2024, however, the platforms will have to submit an annual report. To do so, the platforms will collect additional information, such as the sales volume and the income that sellers generate. The first reports are due at HMRC by 31 January 2025.”
To answer your first question, it depends on how long you have held your shares and if you participated in the share purchase scheme involving A shares being bought from the dividends of B shares. In this case the calculation is extremely complex. It took me a long time to figure it out.
In all others cases you have to add the cost of the auto dividend reinvestment to the costs of your original investment.(s) On sale you subtract this accumulated cost figure from your net sales proceeds to give your capital gain. Some platforms work out these costs for you.
I have been doing Bed & ISA for a few years now, selling enough Shell shares from my trading account to buy back £20,000 worth in my ISA each year. My non-ISA shares were purchased at many vastly different prices over many years, so I just used the average book cost shown in my trading account to calculate the average cost of the number of shares which I was selling each time, and thence the profits I was making.
The figures I arrived at, were accepted by HMRC , along with the SELL contract notes, without further questions or the need to supply hard evidence of numerous buys spanning many years, which would have been very difficult.
Hi, can anyone explain to me how to do this ?
If I sell a bunch of non ISA Shell shares how I am supposed to work out the profit for CGT purposes ?
I have had these shares for many years with auto dividend reinvestment, I can't even see how to calculate the profits even if I wanted to !
PS
I know banks notify HMRC of all interest on savings, do the share platforms inform HMRC of sold shares too ?
thanks
Mike
Started: surprised, 6 May 2024 18:05
Last post: surprised, 6 May 2024 18:05
Four unnamed sources have told Reuters that Saudi state-run oil giant Aramco is in talks to potentially acquire Shell’s billion-dollar gas station business in Malaysia, where the Dutch supergiant owns a network of nearly 1,000 fuel stations.
Neither Shell nor Aramco would comment on the rumor of the talks for Reuters; however, one source told the news agency that talks began late last year and could be finalized in a matter of months.
A second source told Reuters that the deal could be worth over $1 billion.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Saudi-Aramco-in-Talks-to-Buy-Shell-Gas-Stations-in-Malaysia.html
Started: driftking27, 3 May 2024 18:19
Last post: Marmion, 4 May 2024 16:21
Shell pays 3.58% divis at current price, compared to 4% for Chevron, 3.37% for Exxon and 4.4% for BP. So it's not that, and historically 5-6% for all big oil is not unusual, and I hope we get back to $2 divis pa very soon. But I agree reducing debt is desirable, and that is one of the things they are doing, as well as reducing outgoings and increasing eps with the buybacks.
After BRK/B Shell is my largest holding, and is my biggest income generator (except in years when TGA goes mad); the mixture of capital gains and steady income suits me fine.
In my view SHEL’s & BP’s underperformance has been due to the 6% dividend
Compatriots like XON & CVX have paid around 4-4.5% yoy
I believe the dividend should be left alone, and move on, go buy more HSBC & LGEN if you want income
SHEL should be paying down the debt from previous acquitions and bond payments
If we crank it up it’s only going to be cut in bad times.
We need to follow NYSE trading as the likes have not cut yields.
Gla
Started: HappyInvestor100, 2 May 2024 07:13
Last post: bro-ken-broker, 2 May 2024 22:30
NYSE and America is the way, this country is dragging itself down. Most people don't own shares unless in a pension and wealth is a dirty word.
Ed Milliband is proba ly the biggest threat to raised dividend
NYSE is obvious, but also Dax in Frankfurt wouldnt be a bad choice. Shell listed on LSE isn't the best fit post Brexit.
I normally drip my divis back into shares, but for some reason didn't last year. So my most recent purchase was in October 2022, at £22.68 per share. Since then 6 divis, totalling about £1.50, and the share price increased to today's £28.50, or roughly 25% gain. It's not bad, and I like the mixture of capital gain and income. The buybacks should also greatly increase eps, while saving a fortune in reduced payouts.
If the divi was increased back to 2019 levels, the screams of ersatz outrage from the likes of Rachel Reeves would be deafening.
Yep, certainly a matter of good housekeeping in that when it's politically expedient to increase the dividend, ie, when the economy is clearly robust, all we LTHs will see a meaningful benefit. However, I do understand the frustration of those who would prefer or need the cash up-front.
Started: secretdev950, 1 May 2024 21:04
Last post: HumpyDumpy, 2 May 2024 07:23
Never sell Shell. No point commenting here as far as I’m concerned. I never worry about this one. It just does it’s thang.
Has everyone sold shell???
Started: secretdev950, 30 Apr 2024 17:31
Last post: secretdev950, 30 Apr 2024 17:31
Can we expect a dividend increase from shell on 2nd May???
Started: driftking27, 29 Apr 2024 22:55
Last post: driftking27, 29 Apr 2024 22:55
Just read earnings call of Total Energies
There looking at possibilities of a NYSE listing too
Last post: Littleaston, 19 Apr 2024 21:34
Boyobach,
I am no fan of buybacks, they just muddy the figures. There is also the question of debt, which is also coming down too slowly.
Sawan can say that there is a valuation gap, however the dividend was cut, don't I know it, when I ended up buying more shares to get equivalent. Those like Exxon and Chevron did not so they deserve a higher valuation. We are still below the dividend before the cut several years down the line. I have been in this since 2015 so have enough experience with this company.
I have sold of 20% of my holding, so ready to sell more or buy back when the value is right for me.
Will they stop doing buybacks?
And how much cash have shareholder's missed out on since they cut the dividend?
For people who relied on that income it was quite a hit.
It's very difficult to assess the true value of buybacks to investors - is there a magic formula?
I think the theory is that an income investor should sell sufficient shares to top up the lost income and that the buybacks will maintain their overall value. I've never been convinced about that but could it be correct?
I don't think anyone picked up on this but it is an interesting question.
Current buyback is $3.5bn and there are just over 6.4bn shares (down from 8.3bn in July 2018). So the buyback is about $0.55 per share. Divi is $0.34 per share.
So if all money was distributed to shareholders as dividends, it would be about $0.89 per quarter, which is $3.56 per annum (or £2.85 at £1=$1.25) = about 10% of current share price
No wonder they think Shell is undervalued
Would anyone like to guess what the dividend Will be when they end spending all that money on buying back shares.
Last post: getafgrip, 19 Apr 2024 10:28
Interesting thoughts Boyo. I am trying not to make my assumptions & targets particularly timebound this time, but I find it very difficult. Shell go Ex-Dividend on the 16th May, when I will be walking in Cumbria trying to pick up a phone signal no doubt! Obviously, if you buy back by then you qualify for the dividend, which as you say is a nice bonus. We are stuck with the Stamp Duty, which is roughly half the dividend on a similar level of purchase.
I am working on £28, as the high reached on the 18th October 2023, as being a rational view of where we should be now, without the conflict hype & spike above £29, which appears not to be sustainable without significant escalation in the Middle-East. Market reaction to Middle-East events seems to be almost spookily subdued at the moment. £27 or even £26 do look like realistic dips, but whether they will appear on the horizon before the 16th May remains to be seen. I really see this as negative bet territory, hoping for the share price to go down by a certain time, very weird. Ride the wave & good luck.
Typo correction:
I’ll be very happy indeed if I can match the annual dividend ....
Ha! the world is a mess GfG but it has always been so in the Middle East - effectively the middle of human conflict for millennia . If only God had managed his messengers a bit better and we'd all been on the same page eh?
Back to reality though: It’s interesting to see that, since 8th April, Shel’s sp ratio to OP has pushed upwards https://invst.ly/14g4d7 and Shel is now running quite hot in relation to it. I guess this might correct itself if Brent continues to drop back. I’m obviously assessing where my buyback target will be for the various tranches I’ve recently sold off as the price has risen. I reckon that today’s sp is about 175 above what it would have been at the same OP a month ago and I do think I’d start getting interested at about 2600 - a £3 per share gain on the last tranche I sold. I’ll be very happy indeed if match the annual dividend on half of my Shel from trading it within a single quarter - especially if I also get the divi too!! ATB
Boyo,
Good morning - the chart says it all really & it is interesting to note that you are largely out of Shell at the moment. Shell does seem to have reached a bit of a plateau, after a really strong run, but all runs run out of steam at some point!
I was looking at waiting to hear the announcement of the First Quarter results on the 2nd May, but wasn't sure how the market would take the Shell statement on Gas "Trading & Optimisation results are expected to be strong, but significantly lower than an exceptional Q4’23." Particularly when the shares are already relatively high anyway.
The Sword of Damocles is hanging over the upward travel of the OP at the moment which looks to be based on the extent and severity of the Israeli response to Iran. Surrounded by enemies that have sworn its destruction Israel has absolutely no choice other than to respond aggressively. The US already distancing itself from any response, may leave a strong likelihood that Iranian nuclear facilities may be targeted. Its a worrying World we live in.
When as one example, Biden apparently wants Ukraine to ease up on Russian refinery attacks due to the sensitivity of gas prices in an election year, there are not just an awful lot of Geopolitical influences on the Oil markets, but Geo-Economic & political influences.
Boyo - are you quiet, because we've gone off the chart?
Apologies for not responding GfG - with Shel doing very nicely, I’ve been preoccupied with other stuff.
I’ve now sold most of my holding but still have a tiny number and will top back up if/when the opportunity presents itself.
It can’t really go off the chart because a chart is basically a record of what has happened - but it does become more difficult to identify likely resistance levels although there are various theories and tools that some use. I’ll be guided by OP movements, the trends and the ‘8,21 EMA’ blue and red squiggly lines shown here https://invst.ly/14fpze , which converge and cross at suggested ‘sell’ and ‘buy’ points. They are always a bit late though, coming after a given peak or trough.
ATB and GLA
Started: Midaztuch, 19 Apr 2024 06:49
Last post: AlexTrader0, 19 Apr 2024 09:12
“3 UK oil stocks to invest in as Middle East tensions rise”
https://uk.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/3-uk-oil-stocks-to-invest-in-as-middle-east-tensions-rise-3441443
I doubt it, Israel just flexing its muscles in response to Iranian attack on Israel. Iran would be totally destroyed by Israel, USA and NATO allies if Iran did anything to threaten Israel. JMO.
Israeli air strikes on Iran, this war is going to send oil centre stage again.
Last post: dalesflyer, 12 Apr 2024 14:38
I’m all out at thirty quid. Come on shell do your best.
Sold half @29.29. Well done all holders! No way was selling all, still really cheaply valued but couldn't resist taking some off the table. My average was 13 quid.GLA and happy Friday!
Started: midlandboy, 12 Apr 2024 08:22
Last post: midlandboy, 12 Apr 2024 08:22
Glass ceiling to be smashed today? GLA