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Started: tigris72poo, 19 Aug 2020 05:14
Last post: Interzone, 19 Sep 2020 09:33
Annual report is rather positive in tone as well as saying (if I remember correctly) they anticipate $200,000,000/a cash flow up to 2023. They also talk about stating to pay progressive dividends.
Directors bought heavily recently and I will increase my interest when normal trading starts.
so where is the cash, where is the news, where is AK?
Started: longshorttrade, 20 Apr 2020 09:42
Last post: longshorttrade, 20 Apr 2020 09:50
Cheers Inter
The name change seems to be preventing the MM's from trading so far ?
Last post: longshorttrade, 20 Apr 2020 09:39
Not Yet, they haven't given a date for the finals either yet it will follow after that.
Have we got a date for this, i am struggling to find one.
Also do we know if it will be a virtual meeting?
Started: Porschefund, 16 Apr 2020 15:47
Last post: TrekMadone, 18 Apr 2020 17:15
I’m with you there Paul.
Very fortunately I managed to trade out of this one mostly buying TXP and later a lot of covid stocks but I am buying back in here now as I think we’ll get some news on revenues soon. I must say I have been very disappointed with the BoD, not a fan of AK but I did hold SJ in high regard having done well in back NPE. He has an amazing strike rate but I would have thought he’d have done a better job in coaching AK but then we don’t have the full story which leads me to believe this is a hands tied virtual NDA scenario where SAVE are silenced. They know full well if they break ranks they bite the hand that feeds them. Bad, not all bad, getting better seems to be the media tone hence my reentry yesterday. All imo of course.
Do you still hold that several million was it? What a buy that was at 11.9 from memory. I’m pretty sure if you still got them they will be in the money soon. Atb
Trek
Thanks Zengas and others
I’m not sure which is worse, SAVP sitting on bad news or sitting on good news (ie solvent/being paid) but showing total disregard for shareholders with no Covid update. I will be more annoyed if the latter since I’m expecting the first!
SAVP has the dubious honour of being the only share I own (about 15) which has not updated the market since Covid hit the fan. Roll on the AGM, we won’t be able to complain in person but there should be some suitable platform
Cheers Zen, very informative, Thanks
Thank you so so much for sharing. You’re just unbelievably resourceful.
Clap for Zengas. Definitely.
Have a great weekend everyone. See you all next week.
16 April 2020 Premium Times (Abuja)
Also at the meeting was the Managing Director of the Niger Delta Power Holding Company (NDPHC), Chiedu Ugbo, who said the NIPP GENCos under the company's operations would get the gas fund and pay up.
He said the Calabar NIPP was the only plant with a standard gas supply agreement.
With the availability of gas during this period, he said electricity generation could be ramped up above 400 megawatts (MW) when every other plant was down.
https://allafrica.com/stories/202004160298.html
Ties in with Savps tweet last week of it increasing gas supplies
Started: Itsriskythat, 18 Apr 2020 10:54
Last post: Itsriskythat, 18 Apr 2020 10:54
The Nigerian Federal Government has signalled an exceptional payment to the GenCo's of value N200bn, which in dollar terms is roughly $520m. However caution is best used on hearing of any payments to the power sector.
Whilst the Nigerian media has widely reported the Federal Government's message, as was delivered by industry leaders at a press conference, the Association of Power Generation Companies says the N200bn new money is not yet available.
https://economicconfidential.com/2020/04/discos-gencos-deny-n200bn-payment/
This exceptional support to the GenCo's was made by the Government in response to last several weeks of gas shortages and reduced and intermittent power supply to businesses and homes in Nigeria.
But the media has not reported with such eagerness that the reason for the gas shortages is some gas suppliers stopped supplying gas without payment by some of the GenCo's.
https://www.dailytrust.com.ng/power-outages-nnpc-intervenes-to-raise-gas-supply-to-gencos.html
This exceptional payment from the Government is reported to be used for pre-payment by some GenCo’s to those suppliers without a gas sales agreement.
It is probable that Accugas with a sales agreement (that is backed by the Partial Risk Guarantee) is already being paid, because the only mention of problems with power generation are at specific power stations and not those supplied by Accugas.
As reported across the media, the gas supply to the Odukpani/Calabar power station was increased during March and April in response the Federal Government asking for more gas to be available.
As tweeted by Savannah, it is a huge positive that Accugas is now assisting NDPHC and NNPC in increasing the MW of power suppled to the grid.
And importantly it is the politically correct action for Savannah when the Government is under pressure from many sides to keep Nigerians comfortable in their homes and to have them supplied with electricity.
Started: Gr33ning68, 17 Apr 2020 16:51
Last post: Gr33ning68, 17 Apr 2020 16:51
People are not buying these shares when the quoted offer price is 8p and getting a quote to buy £25k at 8.86p. Over 10% above and probably same but below on bid. MMs not helping this share at all. Gla
Started: telegraphist50, 17 Apr 2020 14:37
Last post: mcb77, 17 Apr 2020 16:08
He seems to like many things about this company. I think his last price target was 70 / 80p a few months ago. If he had left the zero off, he would have been spot on for once !
For what it's worth, he likes the new ticker of SAVE!
https://www.malcysblog.com/2020/04/oil-price-genel-savannah-vog-gkp/
Last post: TrekMadone, 17 Apr 2020 15:43
I just bought back in 50k for now at 07.98 and the SP immediately dropped on google finance to 0.79. Nothing new there then! but at least I knew hadn’t bought the wrong company! Lol!
Trek
Thank you Z and Longshort. You both were so early I only woke up @8 this morning. I guess breathe a little still we need proper rns to set the record straight. They’ve been saying Niger near term forever now so they need to show the market some muscle now. Don’t think the share price will fly on this kind of sweet wording rns.
topped up around 60k shares to average down , hopefully it will be a wise move in a few weeks.nothing to suggest savp ain't getting paid , surely that would be have to be released as an RNS forthwith. on that basis i have bought these today...
fool and his money eh?
Started: PSB123, 17 Apr 2020 12:28
Last post: ZENGAS, 17 Apr 2020 13:35
Maybe on the new website Monday ?
There's one from Capital Access for Savp dated 4 weeks ago Consensus target price of 54p.
https://www.savannah-petroleum.com/downloads/March%202020%20-%20Capital%20Access%20-%20Savannah%20Petroleum%20Plc.pdf
Apparently issued but can’t find it. Anyone know what it says?
Started: LokiHB, 17 Apr 2020 11:47
Last post: tradeemup, 17 Apr 2020 11:54
AK talks up his holding and skin in the game but this vehicles pays him over $2m per annum. His performance ? What performance ..:.
Loki I think the frustration here is that we have suffered a lengthy suspension for a supposedly value accretive deal. We now languish at 8p and whilst I accept the Macro environment an update is due as it is clear the ambiguity around payments is eroding the SP. AK doesn’t give a toss about anybody other than the IIs we are all second class citizens as PIs. The seven energy takeover, complexity, timeline and now post acquisition comms have been APPALLING.
This has been the most useless company ever for giving investors updates, i bought in at 28p on a "hot tip" (wont be doing that again) manage to average out lower down and then sell and now im holding 120k shares at 8p.
Just wanna see a decent rise so i can sell this **** and stick it on Tullow oil
Started: tradeemup, 17 Apr 2020 11:36
Last post: tradeemup, 17 Apr 2020 11:36
I don’t need tweets or name changes. Simple confirmation Via RNS that we are being paid and that the FCF forecasts and projections are holding up. This would suffice! I’m losing my patience with AK and will be glad to exit this when the time is right.
Started: NicetoMichu, 15 Apr 2020 15:18
Last post: Snaffleman, 16 Apr 2020 16:31
Zengas fair, knowledgeable and balanced as usual I get irritated on the occasions that you are unfairly accused of being a ramper. I was starting to get tempted to get back in but have decided to wait.
Another Zengas post! You should represent us PI all to voice this to the BOD. A lot of us have been saying the same thing.
AK should repay his 2018 bonus, and receive no bonus for 2019. Way too greedy. Literally write his own paycheck. Something needs to be done.
Well said! I Couldn’t agree more!
Well the share price has fallen from 35p to which we were told was a value enhancing deal for all shareholders and would underpin/derisk us through guaranteed gas revenues plus any new customers and less dependent on oil. My point is - how in the face of such share price destruction/performance can any further bonus be paid if the remuneration committee are reading this ? Also the $5m loan which was to be settled around 17th Jan 2020 was not mentioned again in any shape or form until 6th March and is extended to 6th June. If bonuses weren't handed out so quickly until the company actually delivers, there would have been less need for most of that $5m in the first place.
My comments then on 15th Jan 2020 in which the share price has fallen from 22p by a further 66% in that time to 7.5p and which can't all be blamed on the CV-19 outbreak. Therefore any blame attached to the CV-19 outbreak by the CEO/Chairman does not address the dire performance prior to this and the lack of delivery on past guidance.
AK: "Our focus in Niger in 2019 will be on testing the Amdigh-1 discovery, delivering first oil from our R3 East EPS, and commencing a further exploration programme in the second half of the year, potentially with a partner. We expect this process to be one that adds significant value for all of our stakeholders".
'Lets hope any bonuses under consideration if any for 2019 are suspended or cancelled and that the remuneration committee wake up to the fact that nothing has been delivered at any point since listing in terms of any growth for shareholders. Some of those dozy old compliant codgers should consider this fact when they're patting each other on the back about jobs supposedly well done and see that the company actions have repeatedly sent the share price south with every passing year.
Meanwhile let's see if the $5m short term loan is repaid in cash or by shares.
CEO Pay/bonuses
y/e 2014 paid $352k
y/e 2015 paid $671k
y/e 2016 paid $886k (of which $278k being his bonus)
Y/e 2017 paid $1.814m ($1.248m being the bonus)
y/e 2018 paid $2.1m ($1.4m bonus).
y/e 2019 to be announced
In 5 years (2014-18) including pension contributions he's earned $5.8m while the share price has been decimated
Unless he starts to get the share price up, deliver on promises and explain the dividend ambiguity then this progressive enrichment has to be nipped entirely in the bud and linked only to share price performance and every shareholder should make their feelings known about this to IR/JL/Remuneration committee and AK himself. It simply isn't good enough and has to be challenged. Going on 7 years and only 5 wells drilled in Niger - shameful.'
Pay cuts/ staff reductions should be on the cards if there has been no improvement in outlook.
The only justification for no Covid update is that might be politically sensitive. ie SAVP trying to appease Nigerian Govt. I note G20 have now agreed debt defaults till year end in order to help countries such as Nigeria to cope. This should help Govt cash flows although reality is that defaults looked inevitable whatever
However this an unprecedented situation and I can’t see why Govt would be ‘offended’ if SAVP spelt out current situation and explained the process of invoking the World Bank Guarantee, if only as a safety net. Anyone know how this Guarantee is triggered? I assume have to issue default notice after x months of non payment.
The concern is the debt pile that SAVP took on board with 7E deal. Maybe they are renegotiating this.
Whatever, why can’t they say what’s going on! We all understand that there are massive sector problems, hence share price down nearly 75% from year highs. Leadership is about being open and honest at such times, not alienating shareholders by appearing contemptuously indifferent.
Time will reveal why no update but unless damn good reason, many of us will sell out into next bounce post AGM vote!
Started: TrustILie, 16 Apr 2020 11:50
Last post: TrustILie, 16 Apr 2020 11:50
2020 FCF will be in 10s of millions this will re-rate massively happy to accumulate under 10p. Remember our revenues are tied to gas prices not oil prices
Started: longshorttrade, 15 Apr 2020 08:58
Last post: ZENGAS, 15 Apr 2020 15:14
Brent Oil was last at $27-$28 barrel in Jan 2016. Savp pressed on by acquiring 2 additional blocks in Niger so obviously a low price didn't hinder longer terms outlooks so i would think this period will be similar. Will take time for all the cuts to right the deman picture over time.
I beleive oil will return to circa $50+/b over the next 12-18 months and that must be something that any farminee takes onboard. Goldman on the back of the cuts have also estimated that price range/timescale. Never guaranteed, but severe cuts have begun, expensive production will dry up some and some balance will return just as it did in 2008, and 2015-16.
I would expect Niger to still be on the cards as it's production is still someway down the road. China still needs to get their oil out so i beleive its still an attractive farm out option for those companies that are looking ahead and not just at the here and now. In addition it's a strategic stream of revenue for the countrys government to capture so they need this even if not as lucrative as before. Hopefully costs will be trimmed, renegotiated in such an environment. Delays to activity/farmout more than possible/likely is my expectation. Niger government still needs critical oil investment so perhaps extensions in ongoing negotitaion. Last we heard was that Niger was setting up some kind of national entity for oil so need partners who might be in short supply so i would logically think, need us as much as ever as there are only 3-4 players max.
Whatever the hold up for an update remains to be seen and i certainly would have loved to have gotten a comprehensive update by now. Any negotiations might now be hampered to some degree by lock-ins/movement etc including refinancing.
For Nigeria, If they were not getting paid for their gas and any guarantee had to be called upon for payment, I would have thought that would be a material event and definitely needing an RNS. As for payment terms/time to settle that's something we don't know if it's taking x amount of months but i would have thought even if there was a rolling back log of overdue payments say for 4-6 months always outstanding, we could still be being paid monthly while always being 4-6 months behind - something i honestly don't know but maybe these are acceptable credit terms if thats what AK meant in stabilising the business going forward from the transaction completion ? Also there was to be some gas well drilling and workover activity.
The results may come anytime. Last year was later as they went to late May. Maybe this gives them time to add some material news. Other than that, nothing more i can add until they englighten us.
Paul, i posted this on ad v f n today in reference to an earlier post of mine re demand/supply expectations.
'The IEA have just released their demand for 2020 - Expects demand to be down 9m bopd for the year - which for the year is around 3.285 billion bls drop against 100m bls/day (36.5 billion for the year). Their graph shows the biggest months for loss are March when the lock downs mostly kicked in mid to late of that month, April, May, June as i was expecting.
It shows the balancing effect i mentioned in my post 1578 of 3rd April for my expectation then and why the cuts wouldn't immediately match the deficit but rather balance it over time and not too dissimilar to todays update - graph here = https://twitter.com/IEABirol/status/1250333302268940289
Also SA expects IEA to announce 200 mmbls of oil buying over next 2 months which is about 3m+ bopd in another cut (see Energy Intel).
In addition Texas Railroad commission vote yesterday will be announced by 21st April re voluntary cuts or not.
=========================================================================
ZENGAS - 03 Apr 2020 - 12:01:18 - 1578 of 1799 PetroTal - Growing oil production - PTAL
Maybe some countries can add further to strategic reserves.
Maybe in real terms the cut doesn't have to be as severe if that happens.
Consumption could be down 20-25m day against 100m demand.
If consumption is down this much for 4 months that's about 2.5 billion bls lost demand.
If demand is down 4m/day average for another 8 months that's 1 billion bls lost.
In total that's maybe 3.5 billion bls/yr they might need to balance in supply cuts or just under 10m bopd.
================================================================================
In summary Paul in your opinion do you consider SAVP is worth a gamble at the current SP? It looks like they are still being paid although I would have preferred the tweet to say paid in full. That was my main worry aside from further falls in the market in general.
This market is all about surviving a few months of possibly very low oil prices and/or maybe $30 - $35 for rest of year.
Demand destruction has been phenomenal but at current oil prices, supply is going to fall off a cliff. The calculation is OPEC/G20 have slowed the rate of fill of storage capacity but everything hinges on demand slowly recovering at same time as supply destruction begins to kick in. Needs to balance before we hit full capacity. I suspect further cuts will be required. Important to remember that actual price achievable is at a very significant price to the dated price on our screens. And in certain locations where storage near capacity the price could be sub $10.
The great thing about SAVP is that revenues mainly gas so we just need to get paid! Or be reassured that World Bank Guarantee still our safety net. It’s possible that Nigeria will benefit from G7/IMF debt relief and SAVP waiting on this.
I would appreciate any views on what to expect with the results and the chances of them being better than market expectations. Even if they were the impact on the sp would be likely to be muted for obvious reasons. However if the results RNS confirms we are being paid in full for gas, includes increased sales, includes some positive information on Niger perhaps we might see the low teens. As I have previously stated expect there is a serious risk the market might drop back as the full impacts become clear but the good news is that my record of being g wrong is second to none.
Started: longshorttrade, 14 Apr 2020 13:43
Last post: Tier, 15 Apr 2020 01:26
Blame it all on Covid19.
Knott already knows there won’t be a face to face AGM. The best anyone pcan hope for is a live video conference.
What an absolutely disgraceful way to behave towards the non institutional shareholders.
Buffy
Will an update precede or follow results ? PC i agree with your sentiments a reassuring update would do more good than harm at this stage.
Thanks Longshort
SAVP the only share I own that has not provided a COVID update. So why no update, if only to say the lights are still on! I still suspect they are suffering significant arrears on gas payments. However Jimmy Lea implying not an issue.
Very odd, if waiting on a good news update (eg Niger CPR or more gas sale contracts) announce reassuring Covid update now (ie SAVP not in distress) and then the good news a few days later. Then we get two bounces.
Directors are losing a great deal of PI goodwill. Anyone know which directors, if any, seeking re-election at next AGM? Finals out end of next month.
Thanks for sharing longshorttrade. You've got to admit it's a p**s poor way for the company to update PIs' though. It's hard to fathom out what the company is up to/how it's performing etc. Surely we should have had some sort of update by now in view of these 'unique' times?!
Started: Sailplane, 13 Apr 2020 20:33
Last post: Sailplane, 13 Apr 2020 20:33
Started: tradeemup, 13 Apr 2020 15:30
Last post: tradeemup, 13 Apr 2020 15:30
Be nice to get an actual formal Update!
Savannah has been a very dependable source of gas supply in Nigeria during the COVID-19 crisis. We have stepped up production to help ensure a reliable supply of gas is available for power generation during the country’s lockdown. #SAVP #COVID19 #EmployeeWelfare
Last post: LokiHB, 12 Apr 2020 21:59
Done deal boys, how much effect do you think this will have on SAVP considering we have still heard nothing from the company?
Too early to say. Everyone can see the storage precipice and common sense /mutual self interest should mean they avoid it.
G20 need to join the party, should be today. Hopefully everyone done the maths correctly
The general consensus of opinion seems to be that the level of cuts is not deep enough to make much difference and the oil price will not rise much if at all. I must admit to being conflicted between wanting to buy back in and fear of the market taking another dive. At the moment I am being cautious. Also I want to here official confirmation that we are being paid with no need to invoke world bank guarantees should not be too much to ask. As for Niger well the market cap did not include anything for Niger before the crash.
Oil price might rise but will we? Too many question marks here. Dreadful management.
Anyhow happy Easter. Switch off for the long weekend. Enjoy the sun in your back garden.
a non s/p down day if they cut big, perhaps
( towards hedging my bets and including flat on the day I went for above instead of 's/p up day' :-) )
meeting starts at 3pm today , so i guess we will know very soon . analyst's are hopeful of a deal , also incorporating USA who could cut production also .
i really thinks its the time to buy here , maybe which an RNS pending after easter holidays ... could be a double boost for SP
Started: NicetoMichu, 8 Apr 2020 12:55
Last post: Tier, 10 Apr 2020 15:24
Hope all is having a relatively relaxing time considering.
Does anyone know the gas payment term here? Quarterly in arrears? So end of 2019 was just being invoiced and maybe payable in a month or even three months? Hope it’s not too thick a question to ask :)!
In a way why should opec cut production if trump doesn’t. If cut the whole world should cut.
Always be a pessimist on AIM if it can go wrong it will go wrong. Optimism on AIM is suicide believe me I know through 15 years of experience. Also in investing on fundamentals is now out of the window. Best go into a casino and place on red or black at least you know the odds they dont change mid spin. Anyway happy birthday to anyone who has their happy day this week
I think there will be a Q1 update any day now, I wouldnt right of Niger either for 2020.
Niceto
You say
eg Paul Curtis wrote ''The next RNS will state that the Guarantee now invoked. Clearly a very delicate matter and SAVP can’t give any update now - the only question we will be asking is are you being paid for the gas.''
The context was that SAVP confirmed that invoking the Guarantee was a notifiable event. Hence, they clearly hadn’t invoked it
My concern was/is that with oil price so so low, Nigeria unable to pay for its gas. Hence no RNS’s because not being paid and therefore next RNS would be invoking Guarantee. Hope I’m wrong. Finals end of May when all must be revealed
If that’s the case you can be open and inform shareholders who I believe are seasoned enough to understand and also concede that when you invest in Africa delayed payment is always a possibility. Add in the current coronavirus battle in Nigeria and most would understand. GENL and GKP manage to handle comms with regards to payment delays and don’t hide material info. The IR team at SAVP need to grow up as does the BOD communication strategy.
Started: telegraphist50, 9 Apr 2020 17:18
Last post: telegraphist50, 9 Apr 2020 17:18
careful! ;)
Started: LokiHB, 8 Apr 2020 15:35
Last post: cjgoldsmith, 8 Apr 2020 16:15
Hi. Most of those posting on that forum will be speculating for a lift in price of oil. Personally I don't care too much. Oil will not stay at its level for very long. The cure for low prices is low prices it's just how long? Saudi Arabia/Russia will be hurting just not as much as US shale or higher cost producers. 10m cut that Trump is proposing won't touch the sides from short term demand destruction and I can never see a situation when US will restrict oil supply it's against their very principle of free markets. My personal view is that there might be a cut but the market would be disappointed. However I wouldn't be surprised to see significant improvement in oil price when things settle down in H2 and demand rises when shale producers have curtailed production due to the economics as they need >50$ oil. I like SAVP gas business which is why I am here with Niger upside (latter will have to wait)
This might be a dumb question but i am new to this so cut me some slack, are we expecting a good outcome of tomorrows opec meeting to boost the share price of savannah? Reason i ask is i also have shares in tullow and all the chat on the forum for that stock is high hopes for the opec meeting but it hasnt been mentioned in here so wasnt sure if i was missing out on something?
Started: tradeemup, 8 Apr 2020 12:06
Last post: tradeemup, 8 Apr 2020 12:26
I’ve also been averaging down. I think the long term outlook could be very positive. However management need to communicate with shareholders.
just bought another 33,173 shares topping me up to 100k shares.....fingers crossed huh
2 trades yesterday and 4 today? I think the sooner SAVP can shed some light on receivables the better. Won’t hold my breath
Started: longshorttrade, 8 Apr 2020 08:37
Last post: longshorttrade, 8 Apr 2020 11:18
Zen, I referenced the gas price as it should have an effect on sentiment if nothing else. I am aware of the fixed pricing but the gas price will have relevance to any new customers we aquire.
longshorttrade, Gas prices on Savps contracts are fixed long term and generally escalate .
Calabar 2019 $3.53 mcf increasing in steps to $5.04 mcf by 2024 and indexed to US PPI.
Unicem all years $5.0 mcf.
Ibom 2019 $2.18 mcf and escalated with US CPI.
Ifam new customer for Q2 ??
Gas is at a 4 week high this morning, hopefully the rise will continue today.
Last post: tradeemup, 8 Apr 2020 11:13
Zengas. Surely the big doubt is over whether payments are being received promptly and this is impacting current SP. Would you not agree that with this being the case a company update is warranted? Or once shareholders purchase stock is the presumption we are life long holders. AK is aware of the drag caused by the uncertainty with with the onset of COVID across Africa would be very easy to remove. Company treats shareholders with disdain ! There is no excuse
It's possible the tweets were not intended as any update for actual investors at all.
Yesterday was world health day but on top of that Nigeria just in the last week has seen less power generation and a lot of it blamed on lack of gas delivered to the generating companies. Also on 2nd April Nigeria issued notices to reduce staff at oil/gas installations as the country is in lock down.
Therefore the tweets may be more aimed at reassuring the public/business in Nigeria that Savp are unaffected and as stated have been increasing gas supplies essential for power generation while taking all steps to protect its staff at the same time.
Totally agree with snaffleman. We are in the midst of a global pandemic and the virus has reached Nigeria. The lack of update despite the tweeting with regards to increased offtake is baffling. I used to feel AK was a credible CEO but increasingly find myself doubting his aptitude and credentials to do anything but raise money with institutions. The company appear to treat all PIs with disdain and given Mcap vs projected FCF an update of payments is the very least we should expect. I suspect it’s not positive news!!!
Why have they not put out an RNS stating that despite the dire macro economic situation business gas production is continuing and indeed has increased in Nigeria and SAVP is being paid in line with contractual arrangements.
If there are any problems that is material news and demands an RNS. These are exceptional times and share holders deserve an RNS one way or the other. AKs reputation was already shot to hell before this nightmare started what the hell is he playing at. Releasing tweets in this situation suggests to me that they have some good information but want to hide the bad . Otherwise why no formal RNS.
Why don't you re-tweet them with your comments below?