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Last update with extension came day before deadline so will we see update tomorrow with further extension and interims friday as i think further extension is ever more likely now.
Surely we are engaging with the govt to see if we are actually wanted in country or not ?
Longshort - Could be I wonder if anyone has been in touch with IR since Rocky's update on Monday................................
It does pose the question why approval isn't sought before doing so much work on these deals ?
Longshort - We will definitely be engaging with government on this...........................................
1) It's not secret that Petronas have been looking to exit africa since 2021 and the assets have been on sale for over 2 years+, I am sure if there was a genuine competitive bid from a credible entity than they would have submitted it................. In fact even if there was others lurking the sudan civil war since april would have made them run away so the SS government hand has weakened further on this front.................
2) Nobody will pay greater than $1.25bn for the assets and even that seemed like a premium to certain deals that have been reported and as Zengas had analysed .
3) We could receive a matching bid from a credible buyer but same as point 1 why wait till now when they had 2 years plus and also if it's a matching bid what are SS government getting out of it.........................
On the whole Caltech saga I am sure both Petronas and Savannah lawyers would be all over there background checks on the said individuals and will have access to data on them from law enforcements and institutions alike and far greater than what we can publicly find so if they are purposely misinforming than they could be in trouble with the law and could face some serious time if they are not careful...........................
Based on all of the above are Caltech a genuine threat to our transaction I would say chances are very slim less than 5% chance. Could another credible party come possibly yes.......... however based on point 1 to 3 again probably a 20% chance....................
So at this stage it's a binary choice between Savannah being approved or Petronas continue to operate.....................
However judging by the fact that the ministry of finance is struggling to pay salaries and needs cash urgently and almost certainly there is a signing on bonus attached to our deal on completion and approval. Can they afford a no deal scenario where they get nothing for now.....................................
No deal is granted prior consent that's just the way things are in deal making.................................
And both Petronas and Savannah would have continued to engaged with the government even before the SPA they must have been given some hope thus to come this far.............
Https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1374599343128219
Watch from 7 minutes in.
So the SAVE deal with Petronas is dead in the water according to the facebook video of Dr Chol, minister of finance and planning.
He's admitted the Government wants CalTech to lend the Government money to buy the Petronas Oil interests in the country, so they obviously do not want SAVE to have it.
Even if CalTech can't raise the money, how can SAVE possibly progress now knowing that at any point in the future the Government could claim the oil interest back into state control as and when they feel like it, should they get financial backing, just like Chad have done. How can we possible proceed with a massive purchase like this in a despot country like this.
IT'S OVER ! and AK needs to RNS now !
I really am not looking forward to our relist price. What’s the point of another extension when the government has no intention of granting approval. I really don’t feel happy right now.
T - if this is to fail post another 1 - 3 months or so, at least we can work up other options in the background and get them as oven ready as possible. Additionally, on the assumption that Accugas is performing exceptionally well, the debt number will hopefully be reduced significantly further. Downside would be if this is to fail is that the longer it goes on, the more good money we are throwing at it in transaction costs.
As with many on here, I’ve had enough of this now and am extremely hungry for as much information from the company as possible and as soon as possible - but pretty much 100% now that we will get what we are to be told at 7.00am on Friday.
Porthmeor
If the deal does proceed and the SS wish to take it in to state control in the future, then they would be required to follow International conventions to do so.
Yes, just what we need years of legal wrangling and costs like Chad ! Wonderful
I think most of us feel this deal will not be approved.The government has no intention to let us buy these assets. I did think all wasn’t well came the June deadline when it still wasn’t done. I’m just sad. Talking about AK’s bonus, really? Share price performance based? I respect him but ultimately he is the ceo making all the decisions and got paid handsomely for the task. I just don’t know what to think. Good luck all, my virtual friends/holders.
Trouble with AK is he thinks he's CEO of an ExxonMobil or BP whereas SAVE have very little clout.
He's also got us involved in 2 of the worst African countries to do business in to boost his ego. Any CEO can find value enhancing projects in these countries, they're cheap for a reason, because they're are a nightmare to do business in and few are mad enough to try.
Tier, my post was tongue in cheek ie if AK was getting $2.5m in performance bonus then that would infer good news for shareholders.
Obviously SS Govt don't want us to have the assets but not sure where SS Govt will get the cash from , Caltec don't have a pot to p--s in and surely the only possible Loan outlets would be world bank or IMF and they won't lend just so they can purchase these type of assets, which would leave the possibility of nations or mercenary groups to offer up the funds in return for assets and concessions in country (just a thought ) with brown envelopes a plenty.
Porthmeor, assuming you are actually invested, you had more than enough notice that AK was hunting aquisitions in West Africa, and more than enough time to sell up if you didn't like the feel of the Chad aquisition, almost a full year in fact.
Zone, of course I got it, and I’m not having a dig. I wouldn’t to anyone never mind you :) I’m just saying as the topic came up. I certainly don’t think he should have any bonus or even a raise. I like him and think he’s super clever but ultimately he needs to take full responsibility.
Porthemeor - the video is nothing new whether they approve save or not is another story but they ain’t getting hands on that kind of money from anyone.
1) we could acquire the assets in the short term for 5-7 years and than transition it over to state.
2) we could give a much sweeter deal on the production sharing fronts.
This whole caltech saga has been designed to perhaps re-negotiate terms that suit them favourably. They may reject savannah eventually remains to be seen but the government has not publicly stated that they have rejected savannah yet. Some articles have implied it based on this caltech deal.
Since the deal was announced not a single person in government has said a word mentioning savannah that could be a good or a bad thing depending on how you see it. If Savannah was totally out of the picture than I would have expected minister to say we have formally rejected savannah as a partner so there are clearly hedging their bets as well.
Besides as far as I could tell from Rockys update on this Petronas we’re as surprised on Monday. So the new buyer would have to negotiate with Petronas as well and that takes months if not longer.
There are 2 options in this really Petronas keep the assets for the foreseeable future or they approve savannah.
In terms of costs once all the due diligence has been done and all the other work streams are complete you wouldn’t have additional costs if the government approval is the only bit outstanding so at this point.
Obviously with every deal there comes a point between a buyer, seller and the approver to make a firm choice and set a non negotiable deadline to either continue pursuing or to move on. Whether we have reached that stage for this deal remains to be seen.
SS government are just putting feelers out there in the market by naming their price for the asset as $3bn in a nutshell to see if anyone bites, but if I was a betting man and if someone was to give them a $1.25bn loan to purchase and intergrate the asset into nilepet I don’t think they would bite. They are not interested in running the asset at this stage they are more interested in the additional $1.8bn lump sum top up.
If they were just interested in purchasing the asset they would just give with give us $1.25bn
Komakino,
Lazy argument suggesting / doubting my share ownership just because I have a different view to you. Yawn
For info I've held since before the 7E deal
I read your suggestions, however this isn't the deal SAVE have been working on for the last year. If the Government were interested in these alternatives they've had a year to be up front with SAVE and have that discussion, rather than scrabble around for funding themselves behind the scenes.
As for selling my shares since the Chad acquisition, you have seen how long the shares have been suspended have you.
Not lazy at all. it's a valid question. You had a year from the admission document for Chad to the point shares were suspended. More than enough time if you felt that it was mad to try and do a deal with them. Obviously you didn't then and are just acting with hindsight.
Komakino,
You were wrong about me holding shares and you are wrong once again to suggest hindsight.
Lol, as you say porthmeor.
The new finance minister was appointed early August - is that the Presidents doing just before these Caltech discussions kicked off ?
I think the President himself has business interests or connections.
New finance minister said in that interview they have been discussing this with Caltech since about 22nd August - that's late in the day.
He said they had a 3 minute meeting in New York - seems quite, quite ridiculous not withstanding they want $3b including $1.25b to buy Petronas assets.
First 5 years as repayment holiday on a term of 13 years at an interest rate of 1.5% - never mind inflation.
Risk would be incredible on future oil prices never mind a future government and risk of not being able to repay with the economy predominantly dependent on oil, landlocked (for now) and a war raging on your only export route.
Seems somewhat very underwhelming for a US firm that their website is pretty poor.
Has the govt not approached oil traders who are fairly awash with bumper cash this past few years ?
I could be very wrong but i don't think they have said NO or YES to SAVE but trying to find a better deal that gives them more interest if they could get the money and maybe up against a deadline. The govt seems pretty broke.
One thing which i think is important - we DON'T KNOW know how the oil contracts, clauses etc are structured - sellers rights etc?
Perhaps the govt knows that SAVE/Petronas can complete on whatever laws/rights are in force and if the govt doesn't have that cash by a specified date then maybe a deal can be close depending on what the original contracts are ???
Either way, i would expect a mention in the next few days.
Elections next year and President might not get in and perhaps wants a nice little pension of say $1.8b courtesy of some F--kwit that will lend it to them and to the expense of the South Sudanese people when the actually can't pay it back.
Roll on friday and hopefully some clarity.
Will nomad say yes to further suspension?