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So now that we are 2 weeks out what do folks think…….. all views welcome
Personally going for 2 months further extension till the end of November to be on the temper my own expectations.
I personally think the shares need to be relisted even if the deal still hasn't been approved. I personally think it’s wrong that a company can suspend their shares for 9 months and think it shouldn't be allowed. I personally think the longest any share should be suspended should be 6 months which is more than enough time to finalise a deal and publish a admission document. After this trading should resumes even if it take another 6-12months for government approval.
Recalling RockyRides post of 6th September following his conversation with I.R.
“AK still in SS and been thee most of the summer
Working flat out to complete by end Sept and company still hopeful it will be done by then
I don't know if have Gov approval but could not be told anyway
NOMAD will decide on further extn if not completed by end Sept but AK will def not want to comeback without ALL approvals inc. Gov consent
I think if not fully completed we will see further extn until everything completed apart from shareholder approval”
If all workstreams are complete and deal completion is dependant only on SS and shareholder sign off I think the uncertainty of the timing of the SS sign off would make it too difficult for the NOMAD to give a further extension.
AK is on record in the 8th June RNS that “at least one further hydrocarbon asset deal” is a key project before the year end. The wording does not say completion of one further project, but the announcement of another signed conditional SPA would fulfil that objective.
In my opinion the timing of the flurry of activity and RNS announcements between 8th December and 13th December resulting in the planned commencement of trading on 13th December and subsequent Petronas RTO announcement suspension cannot have been a coincidence. AK knew that Chad questioning the legitimacy of the Doba fields and TOTCO pipeline deal would damage the share price.
If the “one further hydrocarbon deal” is signed by both parties but is being held by lawyers awaiting the two parties’ instructions, the next deal could be announced at the same time as a default return to market to avoid share price weakness from the uncertainty of SS approval.
Getting the SS deal over the line ASAP and a prompt return to the market not only keeps the NOMAD happy but also helps to bolster the numbers on the 2023 P&L account to avoid potentially failing the Turnover and Profit Class Tests on any 2024 acquisitions. A SS deal completion by the end of this month and the announcement of another signed conditional SPA at the end of the year could fulfil both the RTO Class Tests and one of the Key Project objectives.
Personally I am glad that half year report is round the corner, I wasn’t please with them not dealing a q2 report. I believe going forward the company needs a consistent approach to releasing news. Regardless of whether we have transformational stuff working in the background. So let’s hope going forward they realease quarterly updates alongside the half year and fully year obligatory updates
Returning to the market with admission document and South Sudan deal still proceeding will have a premium to sp regardless of formal approval still waiting. Obviously if formal approval comes at the same time then return price will be a significant premium but returning with approval or approval pending will still be positive for sp
TIL – “returning with approval or approval pending will still be positive for sp” – I hope you are right but if IR are correct that “AK will def not want to comeback without ALL approvals inc. Gov consent” the recent challenge to deemed approval in Chad and the approximately 50% gradual SP reduction( and subsequent reversal) while we waited for the approval of the Accugas deal suggests it is by no means certain.
On a more positive note Zengas recently highlighted how the half year figures due at the end of this month should show the full benefit of the recent new gas contracts. Hopefully the results will be sufficient to at least underwrite the current share price regardless of the timing of the completion of the SS deal.
Interesting to see the Afentra are up 23% today following the issue of an updated Admission Document following completion of their Sonogol and Azule acquisitions without Government approval that is expected after Shareholder approval.
Are we perhaps reading more into govt. approval than is needed? When I firsted invested into SAVP, it was on the basis of the Seven acquisition and I waited for govt. approval before buying in. From that point on it was pretty much a steady decline down to 7p, and thankfully I averaged down massively otherwise I'd still be underwater! When we announced the Exxon deal we again had none of the required sign offs but the sp went from about 20p to 40p before drifting back. After the Chad situation I understand why most would prefer to come back with approval but I guess it's possible we are making too much of it and the market will base it's response mainly on the economics of the deal.
Porsche - This is the point I made yesterday. Obviously if it comes with government approval the bigger the rise, but without it there will be a premium to SP as well.
Who knows we may even get news this week ?
The 25% rise on AET is on a smaller deal, our deal is potentially 55,000 bopd plus 300 - 400 million 2p reserves. So there is no way the market doesn't give a premium even if it's modest to begin with
Komakino - I fully concur the importance placed on admission document and approval coming in tandem is purely based on information fed by people who have spoken to IR, but the position was never set in stone.
I believe what IR truly meant to say was AK is probably looking for some assurance by the way of certain pre-approved conditional approval which is binding on all parties to release the admission document. In most cases as Zengas previously alluded to final government approvals normally come after shareholder approvals and re-admission and that tends to be the normal course of timeline for all deals.
So in view of the above fact the market will have to factor in the economics of the deal....................