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Poor old Knottie is going to start to wonder which way is up. Morning, all.
https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/022924-force-majeure-declared-on-south-sudans-dar-blend-crude-loadings-sources
CYB - well, in Africa he knows the threats of Wars, Coups, Nationalisations and violent FX swings as well as the best of us. I just hope he is growing our underlying businesses well enough to counteract all the issues he has and that we come back a stronger company then pre-suspension whenever we re-emerge to trading.
If we they are producing and selling less, would we be paying less for the asset ?
The Article seems to suggest lower throughput through the pipeline in February 79,000 and some liftings deferred from port sudan, seems to me the pipeline is still operational albeit lower volumes and red sea export issues making it difficult to export oil out.
The pipeline leak was fixed........
https://www.southsudanminingjournal.co/en/post/bashayer-pipeline-company-resolves-khartoum-oil-pipeline-rapture/574
That's been discussed since 27th Feb here
"F/book 1 hour ago reporting on an interview with the minister of information saying the 23-24 budget will not be met as oil production reduced, gelling in 2 pipeline stations and difficulty getting oil out from port sudan due to the attacks on shipping in the red sea."
and in the same post
' this article on the challenges for S.Sudan via the red sea/houthi attcks on shipping.
https://bnnbreaking.com/world/yemen/south-sudan-oil-exports-hit-by-yemeni-houthi-attacks-amid-sudan-conflict '
hence the discussion on 1/3/24 and 1/5/23 re ring fenced financing and risk
As for what's AK doing - I'm sure that has been considered and it's been more than a month since these issues initially started.
"Can any deal be structured in a way that Save can continue say if oil exports were offline for 3-6-12 months at any point ? and it might not happen - totally unknown but i'm sure that risk has been considered. "
From a former South Sudan oil minister who puts Sudans losses at approx $192m/month if the oil is not kept running.
' As a former Minister of Petroleum, let me attempt to shade light on the benefits for Sudan from the oil of South Sudan:
A. The production of DPOC, GPOC, and SPOC used to be 210,000 barrels per a day (2016 to 2019) but it has now decreased to 170, 000 barrels per day as per the latest statistics by the Ministry of Petroleum.
With the $25 (fees) per barrel going to Sudan multiplify by 170,000 barrels per day and a month. Sudan is getting roughly about $127 million USD a month.
B. The 28,000 barrels a day being refined at Khartoum Refinery at Al-jaili, and with it came along, petroleum products are being consumed and used by Sudan. South Sudan gets the normal price of their crude oil barrels of 840,000 a month, which is roughly about 65 million USD a month.
C. The Central Processing Facility at Al-Jabalain and Heglig processing facility
The South Sudan Oil in DPOC and GPOC is being operated by Sudanese, and they are making a living there
D. The marine terminal at Port Sudan where Oil is being shipped to the international markets the workers there (truck drivers, storage facilities, chemicals being brought via Port Sudan, and many logistical operations) are being handled by Sudanese and they are making a living there.
This really needs only mathematics to know the profits of Sudan. With the listed profits above the two Leaders Gen. Burhan and Gen. Hemetti should protect the pipelines and the facilities at all costs.
Yes, South Sudan is benefiting a lot from the oil. The budget of South Sudan is being run and financed by oil. So the biggest loser is South Sudan, and that is the reason for my appeal to our brothers in Sudan.
This oil is our “Food Union” where all of us (South Sudanese and Sudanese) are benefiting.
This “Food Union” shutdown can be a loss not only to South Sudan and Sudan but also our International Oil Partners like CNPC of China, PETEONAS of Malaysia, and ONGC of India.
I know some South Sudanese will ask me why you never built an alternative pipeline as South Sudan? The answer is our pipeline will also either go through Kenya or Ethiopia and Djibouti. We will also have to manage relations there. '
https://blnews.net/2024/01/threats-of-shutting-down-south-sudan-oil-by-sudan/
Zengas - I for one would imagine a lot of it will depend on the balance of payment left on the deal some people have said that the economic interest date on the deal goes all the way back to Jan 2022. So I would imagine with the continued production we have had over the period that the amount left to pay would be on the lower end.
Personally I think everything hinges on approvals and I personally feel with every passing month the risk has been financial risk of this deal has been lowered more in our favour so would be shame to can it without another substantial acquisition / deal
I wonder if AK is still in SS pushing for the approvals clearly they seem to be the biggest workstream / stumbling block towards us completing, can we still come back to the market and issue an admission document without approvals who knows..........................