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Started: StrictlyZinc, 2 Jul 2024 12:08
Last post: NickE, Today 10:32
Edit: award *winning*. Annoying predictive text again.
Morning CTSFO, thanks but I don't have the same long-term knowledge as the likes of IntraVnus, Jimzi and bones on the other board. I'm relatively fresh here but I did follow it but not too closely back to its Aortech times.
As far as the valve is concerned, then I assume any interested party including the current MTA company would take RUA's prototype valve in any commercial deal whether it be the supply of material or an outright purchase of Structural Heart. After all, it is award warning and has been developed with the material.
The caveat is that it would need to be an exclusive supply licensing deal otherwise, almost certainly, RUA would want to retain ownership of the valve. That said, I would be staggered if a major heart valve Company opted for a licensing deal when they could buy the Structural Heart division outright for what would be loose change for them.
NickE, thank you for these posts, they’re very helpful. You, and other posters, know so much more than me re RUA. All the comments have been useful. I’m a little confused as to the long term intentions of the company re heart valves tbh. I suppose RUA are being ‘agile’ in their approach. Will the major manufacturers want the Elast Eon derived product as a sheet or preformed valve? How will the manufacturing part of the IP influence this?
From a medical science perspective, it will be great news if the flow characteristics of the valves under test have been maintained.
This might be a ‘hook’ to generate a good news story for the company, improve PR, and get more people investing?
I appreciate it’s a small part of what RUA has to offer, news about contracts in the ‘big stuff’ is obviously more important here and now.
Good luck everyone!
I was interested in what specifically RUA use to combine with Elast-Eon to produce the enhanced material supplied in the MTA. I think they have a patent in applications as well that interestingly is being applied for within Structural Heart rather than the usual RUA Biomaterials. Making the division ready for a sale perhaps. This from ChatGPT sheds a little light on the enhanced combination/blend:-
"RUA Life Sciences enhances their patented Elast-Eon™ by blending it with polyether-urethane-silicone to create a specialized material. This combination results in a substance that offers the beneficial properties of both silicone and polyurethane, notably the biocompatibility and flexibility of silicone and the durability and mechanical strength of polyurethane.
This advanced material is supplied under a Material Transfer Agreement (MTA) to a significant heart valve company for applications in structural heart devices. The aim of this blending is to produce a material that is highly suitable for the demanding environment of heart valves, where long-term durability, flexibility, and biocompatibility are crucial.
The Elast-Eon™ formulation used in these applications stands out due to:
Enhanced Biostability: Improved resistance to degradation in the body, reducing the risk of long-term failure.
Excellent Mechanical Properties: Providing strength and flexibility that are essential for the dynamic function of heart valves.
Reduced Thrombogenicity: Lower tendency to cause blood clot formation, a critical factor in heart valve function.
Compatibility with Medical Device Manufacturing: Adaptable to various processing techniques used in creating intricate and reliable heart valve components.
These attributes make Elast-Eon™ particularly well-suited for use in high-performance medical devices such as heart valves, ensuring durability and functionality in a challenging biological environment."
Interesting point about the heart valve development CTFSO, but RUA's stated position is that their sole focus is on supplying their material for a third part to produce a heart valve rather than a heart valve itself for commercialisation.
I was also slightly confused as the various articles with the award-winning employee referenced RUA's "prosthetic heart valve prototype that is transitioning to commercialisation."
I checked on this statement as it seemed to contradict the declared position, and Bill Brown clarified that RUA's valve was a bit like the motor industry running a “mule” to develop and test new parts.
Who knows they could be keeping their options open and if the RUA valve has particular merits then "the significant" heart valve company (or another interested party) may opt to take it along with the material.
I think they have made a sensible decision to focus on the material supply as it simplifies any potential agreement and I suspect the financial returns will be similar to licensing a valve.
On the licensing point, I think if a deal comes off it will be a complete sale of Structural Heart with the relevant IP rather than a supply of material licensing deal. It just makes sense given the financial resources to pay an outright sum. When RUA were intent on supplying a valve rather than just material a broker note projected they would receive £10m royalties per annum for just 5% of the market. Edwards has 65% of the market so if they were to do a deal and use RUA's material for their market share then they would ultimately be coughing up royalties of £130m per annum. I accept it's an over-simplification but it's just to make the point that they would be better off buying the Structural Heart division rather than doing a licensing deal.
Started: StrictlyZinc, 4 Jul 2024 08:32
Last post: StrictlyZinc, 4 Jul 2024 08:32
Come on heave heave you can lift this
Started: CTSFO, 1 Jul 2024 19:16
Last post: CTSFO, 1 Jul 2024 19:16
Firstly, apologies for getting this wrong in the past.
RUA has a proven ability to protect its IP. To me this makes its present ongoing patent application re heart valve material and manufacture more likely to be accepted and approved quickly.
So my question is, would a major manufacturer choose a JV or simply a takeover? Tesla took over Maxwell in 2019, then sold them in 2021. All they wanted, and all they kept, was the IP to dry electrode technology. Would a major manufacturer consider something similar here? They might not want the manufacturing side, but would rather have everything and then pick and choose what really gives them added value?
GLA
https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2021/07/30/tesla-sells-maxwell-technologies-but-keeps-its-dry-cell-tech-for-lithium-ion-batteries/
Started: CTSFO, 30 Jun 2024 09:33
Last post: CTSFO, 30 Jun 2024 22:38
People simply haven’t understood the potential. They see a polymer producing company that’s making a loss, even though the figures are improving. The DYOR behind medical devices is different to that for biotech pharmaceuticals. They move on, if they bothered to stop at all.
That needs to change. The next good news RNS needs to get spread far and wide. MSM and medical media need to get behind a home grown success.
I really appreciate your posts mate
Shocks me we are at this level!
It’s potentially useful to both. If the world turns against fluoropolymers, they will need a replacement. These facts already sell the HVR:
“flex fatigue testing for durability passed 400 million cycles equivalent to 10 years in man.
· a heart valve made of the composite has achieved the key 200 million cycles required by ISO standards for a flexible leaflet heart valve.
· hydrodynamic testing demonstrated valve efficiency around 50% better than current technology.
· valve flow area is around 25% larger than similar sized valves in the market.
· Recent patent filing to protect the new IP entitled "Composite Material, Heart Valve and Method of Manufacture".“
The fact it’s fluorine free is icing on the cake!
GLA
Thanks ctsfo ... whats does this mean for RUA and CPX in real time and us investors please ...
Read this on the CPX bb.
“The best supercapacitor binder material has traditionally been PTFE due to its insulating properties and hydrophobicity towards the electrolyte. Due to these features, the active material has a higher internal resistance and is less effective [43]. There is a growing demand for eco-friendly, fluorine-free alternatives to commonly-used fluorinated thermoplastic binders like PTFE [44].”
Potentially important for us. Goretex grafts are the present standard within healthcare. Made out of PTFE. There’s a significant pressure within NHS to consider the environmental impact of healthcare. The anaesthetic agent desflurane has stopped being used because of its greenhouse effect.
Not sure what the other polymer added to Elast Eon is in the HV material. But if it’s fluorine free, this is an important point going forward.
GLA.
Started: StrictlyZinc, 27 Jun 2024 12:57
Last post: StrictlyZinc, 27 Jun 2024 18:22
Too much trading in and out I’m doing a detox!!
I’m here for the bitter (sweet) end now
Impatience for victory ensures defeat- Louis XVI - very profound and relevant- that said, good to have churn, gives the re- rate a stronger foundation. GLA
A bit of upwards momentum - I’ll take any consolation!
Started: NickE, 26 Jun 2024 11:14
Last post: Jimzi, 26 Jun 2024 13:31
Excellent posts from both. Really puts the potential in black and white comprehensively - and unbiased / independent .
EV of £2.8m truly a farce, its just so few are aware - glued to crap like MATD etc !!!
Well played NickE. This is what attracted me to RUA years ago!
Bill Brown once told me that the last great feeding frenzy in this market was around 2015 when TAVI was the breakthrough (feeding the valve into the body via artery and catheter). Several technologies were bought by all the majors for those nine figure numbers way before official trials. Edwards made hay with that.
Polymer (ie, non animal derived) materials are likely to be the next. Whilst Foldax has some pure polymer valves already in patients in early tests (IDE - Investigational Device Exemption (IDE)FDA (.gov)https://www.fda.gov › medical-devices › investigational-... ), RUA have pushed on from their own pure polymer prototypes to create a composite material which is textile based and mixed with Elast-Eon polymer to create a material far stronger and thinner than pure polymer.
Thus, if the major sees this for itself after testing, the prospects here are good. Given that other majors are swimming in the same pool, they might want to pay well to secure the technology.
Part 2
**3. Intellectual Property (IP) and Exclusivity:
The strength and scope of Elast-Eon™'s patents, along with exclusivity rights in specific medical applications, would significantly impact the deal’s value. Comprehensive IP protection can enhance the bargaining position of Rua Life Sciences.
**4. Stage of Development and Regulatory Approval:
The level of clinical validation and regulatory approval (e.g., FDA, CE mark) achieved for Elast-Eon™ in heart valve applications affects its market readiness and, consequently, its valuation.
3. Estimated Valuation Range
**1. Sale of Rights:
Estimated Value: $150 million to $400 million.
Context: Based on the strategic importance of Elast-Eon™ in structural heart applications and comparable deals in the medical technology space.
**2. Licensing Agreement:
Upfront Payment: $30 million to $100 million.
Milestone Payments: Up to an additional $200 million, contingent on achieving specific development and sales targets.
Conclusion
Rua Life Sciences could potentially receive a valuation in the range of $150 million to $400 million for selling the rights to use Elast-Eon™ in heart valve applications, based on comparable sales and licensing deals. Licensing the technology could also provide substantial immediate and future revenue, combining an upfront payment with milestone-based earnings.
These figures are indicative and would ultimately depend on negotiations, the competitive landscape, and the specific strategic needs of the acquiring company.
Had a bit of fun with ChatGPT:-
ChatGPT
Estimating the potential value of Rua Life Sciences selling the rights to use Elast-Eon™ to a major heart valve company involves analyzing several factors, including comparative sales, market size, and the strategic importance of the material. Below is an overview of what Rua might expect, based on similar deals in the medical devices sector:
1. Comparative Sales and Licensing Deals
Recent Comparable Transactions in Medical Devices:
Gore’s Acquisition of Tactus Technology (2021):
Value: Estimated at around $300 million.
Context: Tactus developed a tactile feedback technology relevant to medical and consumer devices.
Implication: Significant value for proprietary technology applicable across multiple domains.
Medtronic’s Acquisition of HeartWare International (2016):
Value: Approximately $1.1 billion.
Context: HeartWare developed a heart pump technology, relevant to Medtronic's cardiovascular portfolio.
Implication: High valuation for a company with specialized heart technology, indicating premium value for strategic cardiovascular innovations.
Edwards Lifesciences’ Acquisition of CardiAQ Valve Technologies (2015):
Value: $350 million upfront, with additional milestone payments.
Context: CardiAQ developed transcatheter mitral valve replacement (TMVR) technology.
Implication: Illustrates substantial upfront payments and additional future incentives for promising cardiovascular technologies.
Licensing and Royalty Agreements:
Johnson & Johnson’s Licensing Agreement with Genmab (2017):
Value: Upfront payment of $50 million, potential for up to $1.5 billion in milestones.
Context: Rights to use Genmab’s proprietary technology in biopharmaceutical applications.
Implication: Significant potential earnings from initial licensing fees and milestones, applicable in a highly specialized medical field.
Boston Scientific’s Agreement with Baylis Medical (2016):
Value: Upfront payment and milestone-based payments totaling approximately $175 million.
Context: Licensing of proprietary technology for structural heart applications.
Implication: High value for technology enhancing existing product lines in the structural heart market.
2. Valuation Factors
**1. Market Size and Growth:
The global heart valve devices market was valued at approximately $8.4 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach around $12.1 billion by 2028, growing at a CAGR of 7.4% .
**2. Strategic Fit:
Elast-Eon™ has unique properties that enhance durability and biocompatibility, crucial for heart valve devices. A strategic buyer may place a high value on the ability to integrate this polymer into existing or new product lines, potentially reducing long-term development costs and improving product performance.
Started: NickE, 26 Jun 2024 11:27
Last post: NickE, 26 Jun 2024 11:37
ChatGPT part 4
Key Sources and Validation
Rua Life Sciences - Elast-Eon™ Technology: This source details the general applications and biocompatibility features of Elast-Eon™, including its use in FDA-approved devices
FDA Approvals and Clinical Data: Evidence from FDA-approved devices using Elast-Eon™ supports its validated biocompatibility and safety .
Clinical and Preclinical Studies: Published studies on devices using Elast-Eon™ further confirm its biocompatibility and safety through clinical outcomes and long-term implant data .
Summary
Elast-Eon™ has been thoroughly validated for biocompatibility and safety in structural heart applications. It has undergone rigorous testing, including cytotoxicity, sensitization, systemic toxicity, hemocompatibility, and calcification resistance. Its use in FDA-approved cardiovascular devices, such as annuloplasty rings and transcatheter components, underscores its suitability and reliability for heart valve applications.
ChatGPT part 3
Has Elast-Eon™ already been validated for biocompatibility and safety in other structural heart applications
Elast-Eon™, a proprietary polymer developed by Rua Life Sciences, has indeed been validated for biocompatibility and safety in various structural heart applications. This material has undergone extensive testing to meet regulatory standards and has been successfully used in several cardiovascular devices. Here’s a detailed overview:
1. Biocompatibility Validation
Tests Conducted:
Cytotoxicity: Elast-Eon™ has been tested for cytotoxicity to ensure that it does not induce cell death or inhibit cell growth. This is crucial for materials that come into prolonged contact with body tissues (50Wheel).
Sensitization and Irritation: The material has undergone testing for sensitization and irritation to confirm that it does not provoke allergic reactions or localized irritation (Blackbird).
Systemic Toxicity: Evaluations have been conducted to ensure that Elast-Eon™ does not produce systemic toxic effects when implanted in the body
Hemocompatibility: Elast-Eon™ has been tested for compatibility with blood, including assessments for thrombogenicity (tendency to cause blood clots) and hemolysis (destruction of red blood cells)
Calcification Resistance: Elast-Eon™ is known for its resistance to calcification, which is critical for maintaining the functionality of heart valves over time
2. Safety Validation
Testing and Applications:
Long-Term Implant Studies: Elast-Eon™ has been evaluated in long-term implantation studies to demonstrate its durability and stability within the body
Use in FDA-Approved Devices: The material is already employed in FDA-approved devices for cardiovascular applications, such as annuloplasty rings, which confirms its safety profile
Clinical Data: Clinical data from devices using Elast-Eon™ support its safety, showing favorable outcomes and minimal adverse reactions in patients
3. Applications in Structural Heart Devices
Specific Uses:
Annuloplasty Rings: Elast-Eon™ is used in annuloplasty rings, devices that are employed to reshape and support the valve annulus during valve repair procedures (Blackbird) (MASV).
Transcatheter Devices: It has been incorporated into components of transcatheter devices, where its durability and flexibility are advantageous.
Part 2
Total Timeframe for Mechanical and Physical Testing
The combined timeframe for comprehensive mechanical and physical testing of Elast-Eon™ in a new heart valve product is estimated to be 8 to 12 months. This includes:
Fatigue Testing: 3-6 months
Hydrodynamic Performance: 2-4 months
Wear and Tear Testing: 3-6 months
Regulatory Compliance Documentation: 1-2 months
This accelerated testing schedule leverages prior biocompatibility data and focuses solely on performance metrics crucial for heart valve functionality.
Conclusion
Focusing on mechanical and physical testing for Elast-Eon™ in new heart valve applications, given its established biocompatibility in other devices, streamlines the evaluation process to around 8 to 12 months. This approach assesses the material’s performance, durability, and compliance with heart valve standards without redundant biocompatibility testing.
ChatGPT again:- part 1
Mechanical and Physical Testing: Overview and Timeframe
**1. Mechanical Durability Testing
Tests Involved:
Fatigue Testing: Evaluate the material’s endurance under repetitive stress, simulating the cyclic loading experienced by heart valves .
Tensile and Compressive Strength: Measure the material’s resistance to stretching and compressing forces .
Flexibility and Elasticity: Determine how well the material can flex and return to its original shape without damage
Timeframe:
Duration: Typically, mechanical durability testing takes about 3-6 months, depending on the complexity of the tests and the need for long-term cyclic loading studies (50Wheel) (Blackbird).
**2. Hydrodynamic Performance Testing
Tests Involved:
Effective Orifice Area: Measure the valve’s opening size and flow characteristics to ensure efficient blood flow.
Regurgitation Testing: Assess the backflow of blood through the valve to ensure minimal leakage
Pressure Drop: Evaluate the pressure difference across the valve to ensure it does not impede blood flow .
Timeframe:
Duration: Hydrodynamic performance testing can be completed in approximately 2-4 months. This includes setting up test protocols, running tests under various conditions, and analyzing the data .
**3. Wear and Tear Testing
Tests Involved:
Abrasion Resistance: Test for material degradation due to friction and wear (50Wheel).
Long-term Simulation: Simulate the material’s performance over extended periods to ensure it withstands the conditions of use (50Wheel) (Blackbird).
Timeframe:
Duration: Wear and tear testing typically requires 3-6 months, as it involves long-term exposure and repeated testing to simulate years of use (Blackbird).
**4. Compliance with Regulatory Standards
Tests Involved:
ISO 5840 Compliance: Ensure that all mechanical tests meet the standards for heart valve devices, particularly those set by the ISO 5840 series .
Timeframe:
Duration: Documentation and compliance checks can add another 1-2 months to the overall timeline, depending on the complexity of the regulatory requirements .
Total Timeframe for Mechanical and Physical Testing
The combined timeframe for comprehensive mechanical and physical testing of Elast-Eon™ in a new heart valve product is estimated to be 8 to 12 months. This includes:
Fatigue Testing: 3-6 months
Hydrodynamic Performance: 2-4 months
Wear and Tear Testing: 3-6 months
Regulatory Compliance Documentation: 1-2 months
Started: IntraVnus, 28 May 2024 08:51
Last post: IntraVnus, 25 Jun 2024 20:42
It wasn’t on RUA’s website when I first posted the original links three weeks ago. Just updating that fact especially as their commentary is noteworthy.
Isn't this sort of old news..well 3 weeks ago???
Further to my original post, RUA now have this achievement up in the RUA Medical website. I hope they are publicising it to the medical fraternity and journalists!
https://www.ruamedical.com/young-scottish-engineer-of-the-year-2024/
The Scottish Engineering Awards 2024 took place last week:
https://www.scottishconstructionnow.com/articles/scottish-engineering-recognises-home-grown-talent-at-glasgow-awards-dinner
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/24342122.scottish-engineering-awards-winners-2024-revealed/
“Our 2024 Young Engineer of the Year Award (YEYA24) in partnership with The Incorporation of Hammermen of Glasgow was presented to Ross McPhillie of RUA Life Sciences for his role in developing a prosthetic heart valve prototype that is transitioning to commercialisation.
Bruce Wood, Deacon of The Incorporation of Hammermen of Glasgow, added: “Once again the standard of young engineers entering the competition has been inspiring, with outstanding presentations revealing the depth of engineering talent that Scotland can be proud of. Choosing a winner amongst such high standards is always difficult, but in Ross McPhillie of RUA Life Sciences, we have a worthy winner.
“Ross aimed to innovate heart valve technology by developing a prototype which successfully lasted 200 million cycles in durability tests and is now transitioning to commercialisation. Alongside Ross, all our finalists, should be proud of their outstanding achievements and they are a true inspiration to Scottish engineers, young and not so young.”
Started: NickE, 21 Jun 2024 16:23
Last post: NickE, 23 Jun 2024 20:15
Yes, if ever there is anything that could be termed a realistic ten-bagger then RUA fits the bill. Doesn't mean it will happen of course but there is a decent chance.
With Foldax doing their last funding round at $135m valuation then it only take an offer of about half that solely for RUA Structural Heart to get a £60m plus valuation the other three divisions remaining to give further upside. It would make sense for any interested major player to buy Structural Heart and the relevant IP for the heart valve material rather than pay an upfront fee, milestones as it progresses through trials and ultimately royalties.
I am sure that would be managements preference and the wording of the options RNS certainly made sure investors were made aware of the possible prospect and benefits to directors who are now very much aligned to shareholder aspirations.
Going back to the question of whether a multibagger prospect is realistic I'd say that the material seems to solve some key issues that arise with existing products:- avoids the need for lifetime anti-coagulants , proven, at least internally, as more durable than mechanical valves and those using animal material and not subject to catastrophic failure.
So there is potentially a quick route to a ten bagger via the sale of RUA Structural Heart (say a £50m offer for this segment alone) and a less instant route to three to five bagger through RUA Medical doubling contract manufacturing revenues - say £20m to £35m m/cap once it transitions the Company as a whole to breakeven/profitability. I'd discount RUA Vascular but £7m value can be thrown in for RUA Biomaterials and it's circa £550,000 profit contribution.
Could get both of course (a £50m sale of Structural heart and breakeven for the rest of the group) and get a 15 bagger but that's just being greedy!
I'd like to see another company do a MTA but, who knows, although there is no declared exclusivity with the current agreement, there might be a mutual understanding to wait for this Company's testing and decision within an undeclared but internally known and reasonable timeframe.
BUT a ten bagger feels realistic here and if you multiply your holding by that it makes the mouth water !
Being serious, we don’t know if anyone will take an interest in RUAs product and develop heart valves from it.
But
We’re a decent length of time into the trial and we haven’t had an RNS saying the major isn’t interested. So that’s good.
This is important:
“ That's what the global company are doing now and have been for the last 6 months - testing to ISO 5840 requirements.
They don't make up their own tests only to have to do another mandatory different set of tests - they ain't stupid by duplicating costs and time.”
RUA is 6 months ahead of the major with in-house data. If the major’s 6 month / 400 & 200 million cycle data is the same as RUA’s at the equivalent point - then the major may seek to see RUA’s most recent data covered by a NDA. It might accept the performance data will match for its valve extrapolated out. And be more interested in entering into a JV / merger / TO earlier rather than later.
When you remortgage the house and buy RUA with the cash!!!
When does “loading up” become irresponsible? I’m stopping myself buying any more - trying to moderate impulsive buying!
Started: CTSFO, 23 Jun 2024 20:03
Last post: CTSFO, 23 Jun 2024 20:03
There’s not always a RNS giving a heads up that the final results will get published.
The day and dates since 2020 that Final Result RNSs have been released:
Monday 13th July 2020
Monday 12th July 2021
Monday 11 July 2022
Wednesday 26th July 2023
I’m guessing we’ll get this year’s on Monday 15th July 2024, though Monday 8th July is also a possibility, it doesn’t fit the 3rd week of the month pattern.
Started: tom2468, 23 Jun 2024 19:17
Last post: CTSFO, 23 Jun 2024 19:29
I’ve been thinking about this. We need to make it noticed. Time to write to the medical editors of the MSM. Give them a heads up. It’s the sort of story they love. Have the piece ready for when the RNS gets dropped about Elast Eon getting taken up.
It's just simply not noticed!!!
Started: StrictlyZinc, 23 Jun 2024 17:01
Last post: StrictlyZinc, 23 Jun 2024 17:01
Last time I was this confident was buying HVO (ORPH) at 6p. That’s the only AIM stock I’ve ever succeeded on and the fundamentals there were, not dissimilar to RUA, a strong indicator for future success.
Started: StrictlyZinc, 21 Jun 2024 16:31
Last post: StrictlyZinc, 21 Jun 2024 16:31
Perfect “storm” (opportunity) of anti FTSE sentiment, AIM Laughing stock and everyone chasing NVDA and the golden US giants.
If and it’s a big if, this comes off it will be massive!
Started: IntraVnus, 19 Jun 2024 10:33
Last post: Jimzi, 21 Jun 2024 16:03
Best, we don't have placing and warrant worries haunting us - we know the bottom unlike so many punt stocks.
Best get them out of the way now as they are clearly not investors - if only a few traders left when a re rate happens, makes it stronger.
We know that with the right news this could easily hit a quid - much easier if you have holders who realise it and not scalp all the time.
Someone is there for it. Unfortunately retail has been feeding the buyer. Very silly.
If you’re in the market for 50k-100k lumps at these prices, you can thank the sellers for the opportunity!
Surely casual sellers must dry up soon.
Started: IntraVnus, 20 Jun 2024 22:19
Last post: IntraVnus, 20 Jun 2024 22:19
The board update this week can be summarised by:
- The board is now “agile and focussed” toward creating “shareholder value”
- The staffing and management structure have been slimmed down.
- The focus is on three things;
- (a) expanding the profitable contract manufacturing operation
- (b) commercialising the heart valve material (by licence or sale)
- (c) finding a partner to take on clinical trials of vascular graft
- These three things aim to work the company towards overall profitability and cash generation.
To reward management to increase shareholder value that should follow if the above are achieved, further options were granted on top of existing ones at 11p, exercisable after 3 years OR EARLIER IF the company is taken over or there is a return of capital.
This last bit is interesting. Might there be a route out via a partner for the vascular trials? Or is it more likely there might be some action on the heart valve material which is currently being looked at under an MTA by a major?
With regard to the heart valve, a RUA employee recently won the Young Scottish Engineer of the Year award for his work on the heart valve made from RUA’s material. I don’t know what kind of evidence the judges sought to determine amongst all the entrants who produced the most amazing work but I would remind you of the official announcement:
“Our 2024 Young Engineer of the Year Award (YEYA24) in partnership with The Incorporation of Hammermen of Glasgow was presented to Ross McPhillie of RUA Life Sciences for his role in developing a prosthetic heart valve prototype that is transitioning to commercialisation.”
Those last three words can be taken either as industry bluster or carefully scripted phrasing. Given the sensitive nature of the product, I ask myself if the company had to vet the press release and were happy for the phrase to be used in publicity materials. Either the company is confident of this “transition to commercialisation” or they are putting out a flag to alert other potential partners.
Plenty to speculate about but I am encouraged that they have settled the management structure, are fixed on their aims and have been explicit about benefitting from their options in the event of a takeover or a capital return, both of which I would suggest are feasible as a result of the heart valve material and, perhaps, the vascular project.
They've previously said results will be in July this year and that's the usual form of recent years.
I'm choosing to remain nonchalant, I recall the CFO purchasing shares at 50p right before the collapse, normally that would be taken as a good sign!
That said, I'm still of the opinion they are expecting some good news which is what is delaying them announcing the Final Results (believing they want to include an update in the RNS). To my knowledge they have an obligation to formally announce the Final Results.
Musing is all we can do for now!
The MTA is still in force [as they would have to say if not]
Organising incentive options at a small premium a few weeks before any excellent news is better than issuing them at a whopping discount after.
It has been 6 months now and so both parties must have an idea of how its going and rig testing must be near complete. Discussions follow on. I wonder where we are at the moment? Was the incentive RNS housekeeping fast tracked to give an acceptable gap?
As I say, just musing.
Started: tom2468, 19 Jun 2024 09:22
Last post: Popeye62, 19 Jun 2024 10:23
Tom2468 - Good call. It's moving up nicely. But Wayne said on Monday after I had added an additional 92,000 shares it was pointless buying as it was going down. I do hope Wayne has the courtesy and decency to pop by and apologise!!!
Every time the bid hits 11, it flushes out the wet wipes who want their impatient money back from the placing last December. Hopefully, the share will leave this level behind soon.
Big buy order in the system
How good Tom?
DYOR
Started: StrictlyZinc, 17 Jun 2024 20:19
Last post: Jimzi, 18 Jun 2024 19:23
Well analysed and thoughtful assessment. Little to add bar we are cashed up and v important- no warrants. If they handed them out in Dec, (on a one for one basis) you can halve your sp targets - wise BOD didn’t give in
Agreed, good summary from NickE.
Noted 90k bought at full ask on the bell. Cenkos went on the bid at the close.
NickE - Excellent post. Atb Popeye.
Arguably the stock should be valued at about £15m or 20p now. That's based on average industry revenue multiples for the two profitable businesses as flagged up in recent broker notes without adding anything for cash, Structural Heart and Vascular.
On the back of good growth for RUA Medical (contract manufacturing) then a £20m to 27m/cap or around 30p to 40p is realistic. On the back of the MTA progressing to a commercial license with double-digit royalties then 100p plus is conservative (£60m plus m/cap).
Equity Development has a target of in excess of 100p but they have discounted both Vascular and Structural Heart by 50%. Reasonable for Vascular given the lack of activity but less so for Structural Heart.
I saw one broker note (probably Cavendish) that projected circa £10m per annum royalties from the licensing of RUA's heart valve material supply based on the likes of Edwards or Medtronic doing a deal and gaining a 5% share of the heart valve market for a valve containing RUA's material. I think that was when RUA's strategy was to produce a heart valve and now it's the supply of material so I am not sure how that changes those figures.
If RUA were deemed on target for those figures (5% market share would seemingly be low for either of the two companies referenced ) and given a medical device company type P/E of 71.5 https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/industry/medical-devices/ then that would mean a market cap of £700m or close to £12 a share.
Admittedly, that's getting into fanciful territory. A more likely scenario is a takeover for say £60m plus (100p plus ). RUA just needs whoever is involved in the MTA to move forward with it. Big companies, however, are notoriously slow.
The risk-reward appears good given RUA Medical does look solid and set for growth which more than underpins the current valuation given the cash held and reduced losses. Effectively, it allows exposure to the blue sky element for free.
20p after good news isn't optimistic. It's conservative.
Started: tom2468, 18 Jun 2024 19:18
Last post: tom2468, 18 Jun 2024 19:18
We're mine and it was hard to get
Fair comment. Not my best posts ever… but I know this is a hidden gem of share. Even more so now. Good luck.
Just keep posting about the IPR. Your extensive knowledge has been noted 😂😂
Many shares just re rate with no news. Check the risers with no RNS. It’s an investment- so invest, not guess the re rate day.
“ Why buy now it’s going down without news”
This sums up so much of AIM at present. It’s a reasonable question. None of us knows when the news will hit. But we’ve seen how rapidly this share spikes. I’d rather add close to bottom, and accept a small further drop, than risk being locked out. But everyone has their own view on this. GLA.
How many shares would you like to have?
Why buy now it’s going down without news
Started: StrictlyZinc, 12 Jun 2024 17:14
Last post: StrictlyZinc, 16 Jun 2024 22:30
I think the chances are better than that AND even if ultimately a failure there are plenty of price surges along the way to make decent money. Look at the stratospheric heights that those that fail reach beforehand
No HE1 isn't the answer, a pre-revenue explorer/miner on aim is as high risk as they come - just like all the other failures before it chances of a long term happy ending are effectively zero.
Take a look at HE1
I had Tintra, it’s been wound up. Very very painful.
Is it only me that is beyond despair with their portfolios.
I’ve backed about 20 losers in a row and each time I close out a losing position I deposit the funds into another purchase which quickly turns red and keeps going down. I am paranoid that it’s just me. If I now buy FAANG at their super overblown prices I will buy at the top but I’ve been thinking that for two years and it’s cost me dear. Today I’ve lost a packet on LGEN and PYPL. I also hold FARN (ouch) and HVO (going nowhere since January) and to top it all I’m shedding lots more here. I really think building society accounts are all I’m ever meant to invest in. Rant over!
Started: CTSFO, 12 Jun 2024 19:30
Last post: CTSFO, 13 Jun 2024 12:19
IntraVnous posted this:
“ Just to follow up my last post, Bill Brown has a tendency to provide a shopping bag full of updates in one RNS. So, likely as not, the next update will be like the last one, a bit about each division with the odd tidbit thrown in to each.”
It’s possible we’ll get an update on the number of cycles the in-house valve AWT has performed. We’re bound to be >400 million cycles. If the valve characteristics - to me especially the energy efficiency - stay the same, the industry is looking at a potential game changer. IMHO.
Good Morning D. Let’s just say the hands on delivery of healthcare. Hope everything went well with the physiotherapist.
Thanks for posting that CTSFO. I had to remind myself that hertz is per second.
You’ve hinted at your work being to do with the circulation of blood in the human body. Maybe I’m being nosey but could you say more, only because I’m interested.
Atb, D
Evening. I emailed one of the manufacturers of Accelerated Wear Testing systems for Artificial Heart Valves today. I wanted a rough guide on how long it takes to in vitro assess a new heart valve. Some very rough figures. Using their system, I think the most commonly used in the industry, the cycle rate for testing is between 10Hz and 40Hz. It depends on the valve.
So 200 million cycles at 10Hz will take 231 days, 200 million cycles at 40Hz will take 57 days. They might want 400 cycle data, if not longer. At least this gives us a time frame within which to expect some results.
Started: CTSFO, 11 Jun 2024 11:48
Last post: IntraVnus, 13 Jun 2024 12:19
Correct NickE, the 10.68p for 50k was a purchase (mine). There’s still 50k available at 10.7 should anyone want it.
To me, this share is so ignored and unwanted, it’s a bit silly. Obviously, there is baggage left over from the fund raise last year that was announced a few days after that big spike when they gave the impression they were not going to raise. I was not impressed with the way that was done. It “wasn’t cricket” but investing is played with a hard ball and it doesn’t pay to hold grudges and get emotional.
Look at the situation now in the cold light of day. Is it a good bet now? The main risk to short term price is that they say the material under MTA is not being taken further by the major. But, as said by others, the basic CM and royalty businesses are still producing and they’ve definitely put the lid on R&D spending for now (eg, Vascular mothballed until a partner can be found).
Let’s hope for some positive noises.
Completely agree Jimzi, cash and two profitable strands to the business make it compelling risk reward with the two blue sky elements thrown in for free. Structural heart looks the most likely to bring a substantive re-rating but the contract manufacturing side also has the capacity (no pun intended!) to achieve that. Judging by a move up in level 2 by one MM it looks like the trades today are buys.
From DEST post
One after the other biotech (AVCT, GDR, FAR and others) and others are going for placings.
Here, no placing for years ( the pain has already been endured) no warrants , 60m shares and an EV of around £3.5m - and you can still buy below last placing with updates soon.
Adds up to lower risk with high reward. Or at least, not a heart attack share, likely to be profitable H2 without the big one
Just could do with some news to get out of this range between 10-13p
Providing its a 1:1 transfer into the ISA, that’s a good thing. It means you’ve got more shares for your £20k limit?
Last post: GreenEyes1, 10 Jun 2024 10:51
I'll bow down to your technical knowledge on that Jimzi, I may be confusing terminology, I was referencing the number of sellers who I believe would exit on a small gain very quickly given the number of shares held that would double in value at 22p. There's been a couple of weighty sells this morning.
Good Morning all. GreenEyes, I’ll find the time. Thanks for the advice, appreciate it.
The over hang is not huge or exist. RSP for 200k is 13.5p - has been for weeks.
As there is little action, it is being controlled by around 500k shares traded in and out. [which has a magnified effect given the low share no. [as can be seen with the 200k quote.]
IntraVnus - I agree. I have a theory that RUA are withholding notifying about final results in anticipation of including some good news (which they must be expecting if I am right). And if it is a 'blow the doors off' RNS as CTSFO (and the rest of us) hopes we might need to take our socks off to count the multiplications of the SP - except that as you point out the overhang is huge and many of them would probably take a doubling of the SP without a second thought.
CTSFO - if you find the time it is worth going back to 2019 /18 and following the story through RUA updates, the first error came when due to Covid the additional cleaning in the lab actually contaminated a crucial test they carried out (grafts) and delayed proceeding by about six months. Ever since then we have been waiting for that transformational RNS but things went from bad to worse, a lot of the spoils of the tech (if it ever gets to market) is now going have to be shared to get the various products over the line.
Ultimately I believe the reward (which comes with equal risk) will be huge which is why I keep a position here.
Quality posts IV. Very useful to know about the 11p placing, though I should have done more DYOR and already picked up on this! Every day’s a school day. It will get very very interesting with a ‘blow the doors off’ RNS. A muted response to a generally okay RNS is also more understandable. Roll on completion of the HV trial.
Started: GreenEyes1, 6 Jun 2024 15:46
Last post: GreenEyes1, 6 Jun 2024 15:46
Tomorrow marks the latest RUA notify the markets of final year results in recent years.
So I'm going to put a positive spin on and say they are waiting for something cheerful to report with it (as they seem to like to do) and that they would only hold off if they were expecting something to report.
Of course that could be fantasy rather than reality but I'm an optimist!