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I see Malky mention at the bottom of yesterday’s update that he is going to be interviewing Simon Thomson soon. Maybe this is RKH starting to engage with media a bit more and spread the word that things are beginning to happen? It would make sense, frankly the share price has got to start rising soon or the company situation versus valuation is going to be ridiculously under priced.
As we close in on the six month mark, the end of year guesses are looking rubbish for most of us, including me.
OscarIndiaLima has been siting very pretty all year so far with 13pence. Plenty of news to come in the second half so all to play for !!
132 Stillneedoil
100 Neilius
100 CitizenTS
78 Ovets
73 hsbilkhu
60.5 JEBR
60 BuildersBum3
57 longtermthinker
53 buffit
50 Thenorseman
49 Market-Dealer
48 jakman444
47 billbadger
40 Silverfoil13
38 Kerching
32 fecm
30 Fin147
28 SpaceHoppa
23 passive
22 BlueDefender
20 r1234
15 Latics
13 OscarIndiaLima
10 headder
Were these peoples guesses for the SP end of year?!
I'm assuming they were made after a few new year shandies :D
Nobody invested in Oil will make any serious money until the panic about supply sets in. Write a Will. Stop expecting riches. This asset class is to bequeath to the next generation.
Patience
No it isnt, I want my jam !
“No it isnt, I want my jam !”
Me too! Im concerned my kids would become spoiled little multi-millionaire brats from all that wealth those inherited shares would generate
Have to agree Ralph, I don't want to slip this mortal coil before RKH and Navitas come good, I'll still put some aside for my daughter, but would like to enjoy a few of life's little luxuries and not have to work as hard!
We could get FID this year/early 2025 and have bods are hitting the ground in the Falklands from the first half of 2025. We could have a drilling rig making a start around the beginning of the Falklands Summer, which would be from December 2025! I don't see why we wouldn't be double the current share price if those things came to pass and maybe a bit more on top!
After all, if RKH follow the same pattern as Navitas who have tripled their share price over the past few years as they head closer to Shenandoah production, why shouldn't RKH? All we need is the funding and FID and its game on, if we are still at 13p as the FPSO is being connected up, I will loading up with as many shares as I can get my grubby little hands on!
Have a great long weekend everyone.
LTT
Yeh ! The next couple of years will be good enough for me, RKH will either be broke or on their way to production. Wont be a geneartion at all to do well here if its going to.
I agree with @Ralph2010, and I don’t think it is that controversial to say so, post OM and FID the price should shift, add in a bit of media interest, possibly by a lot.
But…all of this is driven by the underlying oil price of 80 USD or so and that is monopoly driven. If the monopoly fails and price drops significantly then we are back to square one, but waiting for some sort of peak oil scenario is something on entirely different time scale and I’d be buying Exxon for that, not little ole RKH…
Agree
£386m pa as gross income says the price will move
Jam tomorrow is unlikely
Jam after Fid will mean a lot of toast is needed
GLA
Boboil
"serious money". Keyword - "serious" Do you sell at 2£ or hold until year 2050? How long do you think you live?
Patience
Naturally, Rkh will rise on Funding/Fid & OM , to what degree is anyone's guess but for maximum gain you have to hold on till production & beyond.
If they ramp it up to 200k bopd, one can only imagine the mkt cp on 70kbopd net to Rock.
So its up to each investor to decide the best course of action for their personal situation.
Personally, I may trade some after FID & OM if the price pleases me but I nevertheless, hope to be holding in the run up to production too and maybe beyond.
But first things first......Funding is the next major piece of the jigsaw until then it's all hypothetical.
I am 50 years old. I expect to live to 80. My Rockhopper exposure is an eighth of my net worth. I will not sell this Holding at the OM award monetisation, FID, First Oil or Isobel. This line item is in my will, with restrictive covenants. To me, this is an asset of last resort, to be used frugally. Panic about supply will set in suddenly and steeply.
Patience
Interestingly, China has said it has found the largest new oil discovery in the world in the Bohia Sea, its coming in at around 700mbs, which shows just how large Sea Lion is at around 791mbs.
Sea Lion will be the largest, or if not, one of the largest new produciing fields in the world in 2026 so I'm sure it will draw in a lot of attention but understandly it's best to keep things low key and not beat the drum, which would not help politically but we seemingly have the largest new oilfield in the world coming to market in 2026.
Of course, that's providing they can procure finance & all the necessary contractors, which is the biggest challenge as stated by the company.
Any contractors already operating in Argentina or intending to, can be struck of the list for SL as they will get their assets seized in Argentina if they provide any support to the project so it does make the challenge harder than it would normally be.
Anyone know which, if any, of the major FPSO companies already operate in Argentina or intend to ?
The overiding favourite for SL must be Blue Waters 'Munin', as its North Sea spec,has the disconnectable turret that Rkh/Nav stated, can be leased and it's not necessary to set up full operational infrastructure for operations.
Sounds Perfect....just need to hear LOI/ contract signed .
People had posted about a few potential FPSOs that Sea Lion might use and Munin was on the list. But out of all of those, Bluewater Munin matches most closely the FPSO described in the revised FID plans by RKH/Navitas.
60kbpd daily crude production capacity. Disconnectable internal turret. Waxy crude handling capacity. Ability to operate in rough seas. And most importantly, available now for immediate deployment. It is currently moored in Malaysia, very close to the shipyards in Singapore/S.Korea where the refit for Sea Lion will most probably be done.
Munin was built specifically to suit the needs of the North China Sea oil reservoir Lufeng-21, an area known for typhoons and cyclones. So, it should suit the heavy seas of the North Falklands very well.
There have been times when crude production from Munin exceeded 90kbpd in the Xijiang and Huizhou projects where it operated on full dynamic positioning (don't know what that is, and whether that is feasible with Sea Lion).
https://www.bluewater.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/BLW_FPSO_munin_folder.pdf
1st pararagraph last line - I presume that's FEED not FID.
Indeed FEED not FID. typo
All we are looking for now is the financing announcement, which given how smoothly Navitas is raising funds in Israel and how much money it has made investors recently, should not be difficult. And then FID followed by the signings of large contracts, especially the FPSO contract. Fingers crossed!
I have been personally in the stock since 2016 and an increasingly large chunk of my personal wealth too. I am looking forward to making some money on it finally as we go towards FID but I am not selling till the 2nd phase of drilling & development. I expect more oil to be found in the basin - it's a new basin after all, and it will only get bigger. I expect some exploration and appraisal wells during the 2nd phase of drilling leading to massive new discoveries as well as the appraisal of other large deposits in the NFB. As the NFB goes from 55-60k bpd to 200-250kbpd of oil and the potential of the South Falkland Basin opening up (and JVs with other large partners are announced), we will see the real value of the company crystalise in the share price probably through an acquisition.
OscarIndiaLima,
I hope you are sort of right but your timeline is a little off! I am pretty much hoping for first oil late 2026/early 2027 when the FPSO is connected up, then drilling of the further 5/6 wells to complete the first stage of Sea Lion development. However, with the money rolling in after the 5th well and possibly having 6 months of income whilst they drill the next 6, why would they de-mob the rig and send it on it's merry way?
My thinking is with income rolling in, they would keep the rig and head down to Isobel/Elaine and drill and appraise there which could boost RKH share price significantly if Isobel turns out to be another Sea Lion or even bigger! Ok so it wouldn't be like the good old days of the Sea Lion drill as we would be a 35% holder (if we are still around and not taken over), plus there are a lot more share in issue, but still, there could be a nice bump up with "Sea Lion II" being appraised.
That way the rig could be kept busy until the 2nd phase of Sea Lion is ready for drilling and the bumping up of production. Come to think of it, this could be why they are targeting 2 FPSO's, they get SL up and running with a smaller FPSO, getting up to 35-55k bpd, then appraise and drill Isobel. When the time comes to get Sea Lion ready to up production further, in comes the larger FPSO, and the smaller one heads down to Isobel to get working there! It would make a lot of financial sense IMHO.
No doubt this will all be in the EIS that FIG have been looking at since late last year, we are just waiting for it to drop into the public domain for the 42 day public consultation so we can see the devil in the detail. No FID coming before that drops.
LTT
LTT ; A refreshingly upbeat post on the bright future ahead and i'm all for the optimism but I think Rkh must walk before it can run and concentrate on repaying the $350mln , or whatever the loan is, on the first 6 / 12/18 months (depending on revenues) revenues as agreed with Navitas but after that yes, they will certainly explore more and increase reserves along with the shareprice but not, I expect, after 6 months revenue, although I would love to be wrong.
Perhaps you are aware of some method they may use to fund exploration after 6months revenues whilst at the same time repaying 85% of revenues to the loans and retaining the other 15% for costs, unforseens,cashflow ect ?
If so, please share ?
Hi Chessmaster - I can't challenge you on those figures due to lack of research.
BUT from your posts I figure you as a subtle deramper - apologies if I'm wrong.
TCM asks : "Perhaps you are aware of some method they may use to fund exploration after 6months revenues whilst at the same time repaying 85% of revenues to the loans and retaining the other 15% for costs, unforseens,cashflow ect ? If so, please share ?"
I was taught that in the traditional business model of independent oil companies, equity funds exploration, debt funds development, and oil sales fund the resulting operating costs. Which is just as we see here. So if a huge exploration/appraisal opportunity arose after first oil, a placing would happen and would probably be oversubscribed, without damaging the SP trajectory.
Does that answer your question?
That's a Ridiculous accusation Buffit from someone who lacks the most basic of rudimentary research on Rkh & Sea Lion ?
Surely you know Rkh has 35% of SL and pre first oil capex is $1.2b, so its 35% of $1.2B,minus whatever Rkh can put towards it from OM.
That's it,simple as that but you've totally missed the point, the point is not the exact figure, its how does Rkh realistically fund this exploration after 6 months revenue when they must repay 85% of that revenue to Navitas for the capex loans, leaving 15% for admin/costings ect.
Address my post by all means but to simply state I'm a subtle deramper because I added the fact that Rkh must pay 85% of revenue to repay the loans first is ridiculous, that's just a straightforward fact and not my opinion.
It's Pathetic when you make a valid point as I have here, only to be called a deramper by someone with no research nor understanding of what we are actually discussing.
This is a forum to discuss all things Rockhopper and I liked LTTs upbeat post but I
I have to question how this exploration may be possible after 6 months revenue ?
I don't see any problem or issue with this question unlike Buffit ? It's a perfectly reasonable & valid question in my opinion and if anyone can explain how this may be possible 🤔 then all good as personally I can't see how myself after 6months production.
Tha
A placings always possible Alma so that cannot be ruled out as are further loans but I wouldn't say either was likely so soon after production.
I would say far more likely is some repayment of the loans first to reduce the debt, get some cash in the bank from revenues, ramp up production, increase cashflow - then use some of that cash on an exploration campaign.
That , too me, is far more likely than diluting shareholders straight after production but its only my opinion and no more valid than yours so all good t
👍
Respect to you for at least giving an opinion, much better than the likes of Buffit, who have no opinion on the matter but call out others that do without any basis !