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I have decided to take profits and return my RDSB investment to cash.
Omicron
US/China
Ukraine/Russia
Markets looking 'toppy'
Chinese property bubble.
Too many unknowns for me at present, any one of the above could topple the markets.
Will look again when things settle.
No??M's - Similar to me in that I've sold 50% of my oil holdings & 100% of my service sector this morning.
I dislike having money just sat there uninvested but I've realised some good profits, some excellent divi's are to come in the next few days & I will probably re-invest into funds rather than individuals.
If I only had some patience I'd be a better investor, ha!
Gary59,
I get where you are coming from, but sometimes cash just sat there is as good as it gets.
FTSE100 is now 7250, in March 2020 it was below 4900 and I recall the FTSE100 touching under 3500 during the credit crunch.
If and when the ar$e falls out of the market it is always brutal, I could be missing g out on further gains but this feels like a time to hunker down for a while.
Good luck
Oil and gas reserves are so low, I can't see any world event having a true impact on the SP. It's going to bounce back quick and continue its march to £20.
For RDSB to 'bounce back quick' it would first have to fall from current levels.
I would rather take profits now and buy back when I feel the bottom has been reached.
To watch my hard earned profits dwindle into losses is not my idea of a merry Christmas.
I'm in BP but often read this board as find it a more level headed insightful bunch of posters.
O think you are right. Give. Markets at near a time highs and there is and list of strategic risks you listed there one or more of which are bound to hit
I'll sell a good chunk tomoz
RDSb appears to be four days into the ‘sell’ half of a trading cycle already:
https://invst.ly/wvpqp
So interest will naturally be turning to where the bottom might be. O&G Supply remains much tighter than it was back in early 2020, when covid first struck and there was a glut of oil in inventories. I very much doubt that the market will sink to levels seen then.
Interesting views from both sides of the hold / sell fence. As a buyer in early 2019 with some of my pension pot at averages of £22-£23.50 range based on comments such as never sell Shell / best divdend payer etc you can imagine how bruised i felt when sub £9 was hit. I have patiently awaited a return and can see that Shel is looking to future-proof its business in new energy products and markets, but again its been a long, hard, bruising slog to even get back to £16.50 average. For th0ose who have the luxury of departing with some profit and some dividends, well done, but spare a thought for many like myself who simply cannot dispose of Shell at these levels as the loss to investment funds would be substantlial. Maybe I should have sold and repurchased on the previous highs / lows and traded my way out of my current paper loss, but that would need a degree of crystal ball gazing and could have gone even worse and compounded my losses. Does anyone have words of comfort for investors such as myself, when does anyone see a return to £22-£24 range anbd if so when??? If not, any suggestions on a course of action as I am stumped!!
prussell, as some people on here have suggested the SP could well go over £20 and get back towards your average....and dividends may increase further given the huge profits Shell must currently be making. The dilemma for you may come when/if the SP gets back to your breakeven point, do you sell to invest in something else or hold.
Have thought of gifting the shares to my 2 grandkids, I dont see £23 for 2-4 years so hopefully my other investments have made this up over the time period. As I hold only 2k shares, and the kids are 2 and 4, it could be a nice nest egg for them for when the reach 21. That said, recouping my outlay and spending on a motorhome etc also sounds nice!!
Motorhome sounds good and you can take the grandkids on holiday in it, much more fun than boring shares!
Prussell: 2k shares at say 2275? , so you are approximately £6.50 down per share or £13k? It was, of course, double that loss at one point - so things are getting better. Also the divi is worth nearly £1400 per year - so around £4k has been earned. You’re then about £9k down on that basis. Even if the dividend remains at current levels it should nearly halve that gap over another three years, whilst the sp will hopefully rise too. Trading is then the only way to make further improvements and, if you are convinced that 1600 does not represent the top, then trading a proportion of your 2000 - say 25% in two tranches of 250 could represent a good strategy - as two tranches allow a second bite of the cherry if the first trade misses the mark. Given the comments in this thread and this morning’s move, the consensus seems to be that RDS may be heading lower currently (so it may not be the best time to buy) and it is also below recent highs (so not the best time to sell either). The next opportunity might therefore be to add. I’m currently waiting to reacquire a tranche of shares I sold at about 1690 and will aim to make at least £1 per share but will settle for less if the trend convincingly turns against me. Four RDSb trades per year worth £1 per share should not be too demanding and relatively low risk IMV - but it's not for everyone and it carries risk. As always, DYOR.
hi, things do move very quickly , up or down, but again were back below the £16 mark. some del boys on here were talking £30 in 2022 just the other week , but their deluded. id take over £20 for 2022 right now. again cv19 has raised its ugly head , so a lockdown after all the worlds holidays looks likely in January imo. xmas + new year rally dont look likely atm. people on bloomberg + cnbc were saying cv19 would be over by may 2021 + things would be in full swing. i dontthink anyone really knows, but the reality is its not over for the duration. alot of people are sitting on similar losses to you , but with very good oil + gas prices it must count for something, but when, thats the difficult bit. im gonna buy when i think its bottomed , but below £15 could be on the horizon. hopefully your other investments do well in the meantime. new year new hope . well time will telll. good luck.
Boyobach, a perfectly valid way of trading oneself out of a paper loss. A more proactive method then simply waiting for sentiment to change for oilers. I suppose it would depend on how 'hands on' one is.....but a valid way of reducing ones average! The timing of the trading buys & sells would 'probably' be enhanced by charting....not in everyones skillset (definitely not mine).
As mentioned, I’m in top-up mode at the moment. With the downward trend continuing today, the next level of support in the region of 1560 and a previous trend (blue) currently at about 1575, I feel my target of £1 gain on my last ‘sell’ at around 1680 is in range. https://invst.ly/ww7yw
The dilemma, of course, is whether, assuming it reaches my target, I should simply be content with that or wait to see if it drops further. 1540 is clearly possible if Brent slips below $70 again. Below 1520 would point to a more serious and widespread market correction IMV. Cash is handy in those circumstances - and I'm keeping a prudent amount of that back.
BEagle: I think that if you hold shares, or almost any investment for that matter, then you have to be proactive. Years ago I naively thought I could ‘buy and forget’ . That led to two fundamental mistakes:
Not paying enough attention to the ‘buy’ price and the timing of it.
Thinking that it would ultimately accumulate in value without further management.
No matter how good a given stock is, it does need to be managed - if only to check and confirm that it is performing. It’s so easy to watch a share drift ever lower with the harder decisions invariably about selling rather than buying, especially when that involves accepting that a loss has been made. The notion that sp’s must ultimately return to previous highs traps a lot of investors.
I find the very simplest chart of an sp’s trends, supports and resistances is sufficient to tilt the odds just a bit more in my favour - the common mistake is to regard them as predictive rather than indicative: it’s when the price breaks from the trend or a support/resistance line that it indicates a change of direction that might need some attention.
Totally agree with you there Boyo, so far I had 2 companies who went bust on me the last being Northern Rock in 2008 but managed to finally sell to saved 2/3rd of my original capital but the first one was in 2007 and lost all. Like you I learned that hard lesson to keep an eye out on where I risk my money in 2008 and at least saved some of my money and is not a tuition fee I want to pay again, that my motto now is “to keep my losses small but to let my profits run” till cash in that too.
It's a bit of a minefield second-guessing share prices, but I think £16 is close to a new floor, Omicron permitting. Yes, down from £18, but the difference is only 11.11%, which is par for the course with commodity based shares. I would be content/happy to buy at this price, as looking only a short time ahead:
The New Year will see Shell a month away from a bumper trading update towards the end of January.
The oil & gas prices looks likely to hover around $70 (oil) until the end of December, with gas continuing its dizzying rise - but prices are literally only having to hold up for a fortnight to seal a great Final Quarter.
Worries over inflation levels will start to focus on investing in companies that can pass on inflation to customers.
The US Senate has agreed to an increase in the US Debt Ceiling, which will probably amount to $2.5 trillion & postpone any decision on this saga until mid-February 2022.
Inflationary pressures will make Shell's decision to pay down debt look brilliant.
Shale assets will always be a very capital-intensive & contentious avenue for extracting oil and gas assets, so why not sell them on a high market price opportunity.
Decisions will be made on the Permian distribution to shareholders - with a likelihood of a Special Dividend.
It is likely that the Ordinary Dividend will be increased.
The likely impact of Omicron will be closer to being determined - bearing in mind that if it stays as giving mild symptoms and in tandem produces antibodies to COVID19 it could actually conversely be part of the solution. Whatever happens you have to assume that 2-years on the World has greater capability and expertise in dealing with COVID19 whatever its latest variant.
Shell is in the process of breaking the shackles of being registered in Holland & expending much of its energy working for the Dutch courts.
The powerful consensus of the Shell plc vote has directionally unified the shareholder base to look optimistically forward to massive change and a bright new future.
Shell is in a fantastic position to look at a significant acquisition in addition to the smaller acquisitions that are made regularly.
The Shell share price has been seen to double since October 2021. As GettingBy has detailed new production opportunities are withering on the vine & this can only increase the OP in the short/medium term. Even if Putin is not sabre-rattling & invades the Ukraine, it is not going to put downward pressure on the OP, more likely the opposite. Putinomics, Nordstream 2 & his Foreign Policies are not going to reduce oil or gas prices any time soon.
I am sure there is a downside, but on balance I am very optimistic. I sympathise with anyone buying shares in the £20s say, but the Panicdemic hit all investors hard, and if Shell is now only a third down from buying at £24, that in my view is obviously painful but not too bad & the difference will probably be made up over the coming year, unless there is
Hi getafgrip,
Have to admit that is a very very good analysis of where we are.
Of all the oil and gas companies you have to think that long term Shell and also BP have to be the two safest and certainly day by day their plans seem to be becoming clearer......
After a reasonable 2021 heres to decent 2022....
Getafgrip
I second that from Never. A great analysis. A more sussinct version of my BP ramblings.
Looking forward to a great few years ahead.
Only a BP shareholder but our companies, and our fortune's, are fairly aligned.
Great day all
"Decisions will be made on the Permian distribution to shareholders - with a likelihood of a Special Dividend."
$7bn for share buybacks: about $1.5bn spent until now, $5.5bn to go.
What happens with the remaining $2bn is undecided. Don't hang your hat on a special dividend; that could happen, or maybe it will be invested.
"Don't hang your hat on a special dividend; that could happen, or maybe it will be invested."
===========================================================================
Share buy-backs?!
MG - it might be that the futures of Shell and BP become even more aligned. My first reaction to the out of the blue sale of the Permian shale assets by Shell, was that they were tidying up the assets ready for a big acquisition. Cutting out any Government objections relating to competition, monopoly, conflicts of interest etc etc.
BP evidently tripled its shale output after buying the shale assets of BHP in 2018, much of which was in the Permian Basin, then Shell now suddenly bails out of Permian altogether. Shell is arguably accepted as bigger on Trading and chemical related activities. Also Shell has focused down on - is it seven major integrated refining hubs worldwide - much more efficient, but also reducing the number of local/and specialist monopolies/duopolies etc that adding Shell and BP assets together would create. This has involved the sale of numerous refineries, many of which seem quite profitable.
Also the creation of Shell plc has the immediate benefits that Shell would not be trying to take out by merger or acquisition the UK's biggest oil major in BP, as Shell would become number one - and also the UK Government would be more likely to accept the merger of two big UK companies, rather than an Anglo-Dutch oil major taking over or merging with the UK's big super-major in BP. Also there may be greater consolidation and merger pressure to gain sufficient critical mass to become a major player in the green energy revolution. And because BP and Shell are so closely aligned anyway, the cost savings would be stunning.
I had forgotten, but Shell-Mex & BP had a joint marketing operation from 1932 to 1976 in this country. Also it revives the takeover and merger speculation that has been around before. Lord Browne took BP to the brink of a mega-merger with Royal Dutch Shell in 2004 only to be thwarted at the last minute by opposition from a few of his own board members, the former chief executive has claimed. "We missed the boat" argued Browne in his autobiography. Who knows.
Getafgrip
Excellent piece thank you.
Mark
Well, yesterday’s RDSb rise (along with the rest of the market and Brent) did buck the trend that I originally posted on Wednesday (dotted line here), causing me to think my buy-back opportunity in the 1500’s was gone. However, the downward trend has resumed today with a couple more points ‘refining’ my earlier view of it : https://invst.ly/wx4gb (Brent - rebased - in Green)
I hope Getafgrip is right about 1600 being near the floor - I certainly agreed with many of his comments earlier in this thread and there does seem to be support in this region. Maybe self-interest is causing me to think that the price has further to fall - we often see what we want to see - but I do think RDS could drop further before ultimately revisiting 1800 on the way further up.