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Through $84 for first time in a while.
Some interesting articles on oilprice.com
India struggling to secure cheap Russian Oil
Plus
The market is anxiously awaiting a decision from OPEC+ on the plan for Q2 2024. The group has yet to divulge a date when it will meet to discuss the issue with its members, although April is quickly approaching. OPEC+ will need to determine whether it will stay the course and extend the current voluntary production cuts into the second quarter, whether it will deepen the cuts, or whether it will scale them back or scrap the cuts altogether. Most industry watchers favor the first option, arguing that OPEC+ has no choice but to extend the current level of production cuts if it wants to keep prices from falling.
Tuesday’s price rise does provide OPEC+ with a bit of cover, although OPEC+ still insists it is not managing prices but managing supply based on market needs.
At this brent price and production, they're netting 40 mm USD more than guided right now. That's 1 USD cent per share per quarter extra. Not bad.
Would be nice if they could increase buybacks and go easy on the PSU/warrants; it will be end of April before we're back to EO2023 number of shares.
I'd be happy with a 1.5c dividend a quarter, with the rest going into buybacks. This quarter, a cash dividend of $18.3m and $3m buyback, whereas a $13.8/$7.5 split might work better for shareholders.
Buy backs are a more tax efficient way of returning capital. However Manolo said at the last presentation that they were limited to 10% of free float or around 28m shares per annum. So not sure if they can extend the buy back.
Personally happy with the top ups in dividend.
That £19992 quid is my isa top up for the year, onwards and upwards
Buybacks: 45% of the 916mm shares should be free float; that's 412 million so at least 41 mm annually in buy backs + I think there's an option/it's possible to also offer major shareholders same terms on top of that in a restricted buy back?
So they could increase the buy back number by 50% and still be below the 10% threshold.
But it's a balance ofc. Right now they seem to be able to reduce number of shares without inflating the SP; so that means cheaper buybacks. I wouldn't mind a bit more. Especially if we get major shareholders to chip in.
Https://www.thearmchairtrader.com/podcast-extracting-oil-in-peru-with-petrotal/
Look at all those buys in the 43s showing as sells.
Darien - when the bid is 43 and the ask is 44; all trades up to 43.49 will be marked as sells. All trades 43.51 or higher will be marked as buys and trades at 43.50 will be marked as "unknown". Behind every trade there's a seller and a buyer. So every buy is also a sell. Apart from the "unknown" :D
So watch the share price, not the "gamification" or whatever you want to call LSE's construct/"algorithm".
Behind every buy there is a sell??, not if the stock is borrowed when taking a short position, its closing a short against the borrow.. BTW Year end results to be announced 21st March.... big day, should give us a flavour of profitability for this year ahead too
Don't think I agree Damian.
When a shorter "loans out" a stock, and then sells, there is the short who has sold and the new buyer.
So, when the shorter closes, he buys off someone, who must sell. He then replaces his "loaned" stock.
It does add liquidity during the short though, as the "owner" has effectively allowed his stock to be sold. Without shorting it is unlikely the "owner" would sell. It is the scurge of the LSE, with "loadofmoney" Americans ripping off the British investor. One of the reasons the FTSE is in such a bad way IMO, with so many British companies undervalued.
Funds will take a view as to the relative merits of two companies, and fund their investment in one by selling another. The big US shares are pumped up in value by shorting UK stocks.
All IMHO
Think you must have too much time on your hands, i really dont care
Any shorting (hardly any here tbh - shorting a share with FCF and buybacks is extremely risky) just artificially inflates the share number. The same share has just been sold and bought twice - or more. But there's still a seller and a buyer when a hedge fund shorts.
Also looking forward to the Annual report - and very interested/"anxious" to see numbers from well 17H late March. It looks like it's in the north east outskirts of the field so - how much can it produce? If the numbers are strong, what does it mean for 2P/3P and recovery rates?
Darien - where are you seeing 21st March for YE results? Can't find that date announced anywhere.
They tweeted it today from their official account around 8am UK time
Thank you LSE202020.
Not good for anyone not registered with X though, and unless they plan to put it in an RNS then it should at least be in the news section on the website as well. Or preferably have a calendar on the website, something few AIM companies seem to want to do but standard practice for most on the main market.
News on well 17H completion will also be announced on that date imho
I think Manolo needs to be LESS predictable with news. This would stop the trading out of PTAL when traders think no news is immediately due.