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Great update, and I say that because their is no fireworks there, and no surprises. No promising the earth, but never being sidetracked by the realities/variances concomitant with their locale. Just boringly delivering predictability.
And the SP may be moving barely/sideways, but I like that. Because the mgmt culture is such not to promise the earth, a ine off 5 bagger, but be disciplined and deliver a healthy sustainable long term return.
Evidenced by spending a fifth of their mkt cap on capex a year. By projecting on $77 bbl despite reporting figures where based on a realised price of $81.05 (down from $84.95) and current oil price being above their $77. By their not spurting production upwards, before managing/diversifying product routes to market..By reducing their bonds. By retaining £70m cash for eventualities. By maintaining the dividend, at a healthy level, but retaining flexibility with cash for eventualities.
This is a mgmt/CO whose discipline/pragmatism is to under promises and over deliver. Frankly, and delightfully, i've filed this holding in the boringly predictable put away and forgot about draw.
No boom or bust here. In long term enriching income, I trust
Well the very next slide mentions ESP is to be installed later this month so i think that answers it! This is on natural flow only. They are waiting for few more days to switch on pump and Manolo just confirmed its right in line with expectations.
I have put forward the question RE: 17H production few moments ago on the webcast . Lets see if they pick up my question :)
Onp only possibly third quarter
I am happy to hover the dividend and in this oil price environment liquidity sweep payment for sure in the next 6 months. they just want to keep about 60 million liquidity. rest distributed to share holders.
Hope the share price gradually picks up.
Darkangelv2 - I agree 100%, mentioned it a billion times I think.
It's not needed with the present volume. Cost does scale rather well though, so maybe if PTAL adds a lot of production AND payment terms are changed (FOB - once it's "on board" it's not our oil and must be paid in full) - then ONP becomes relevant. Bargaining power (more buyers) and diversification (less dependency on one channel) are also "upsides" to future ONP usage. But it's definitely not needed ATM.
Re. 17H: Looks to be weaker than previous wells - but we can't expect every new well to perform like the best P1 wells. H17 is on the northeastern outskirts (it seems) of the field, so it might be the last drilled there? Plenty of P2 wells to drill still, though, at Bretana.
Do we still think ONP is critical? Given:
- Manolo expanding export routes - possible to keep pace with desired output?
- Dry season mitigation being developed via trunking depots
- ONP offers lower netbacks & delayed payment
- Propensity for ONP to go offline with our oil trapped inside, unsold!
My biggest take on this is the future... current production at 20k bopd and a new well to come on stream in mid May with a brent forecast at $77 and currently at $85, this has a very bright future indeed. The 64 thousand dollar question is will the ONP get back on line, if so the numbers could rocket. another question is, if production goes to 25ooo bopd cn they ship it fast enough? all to be revealed. but the downside is small from here
Roxi, the less of you, the better. Please don't do to this forum, what you've done to the JSE one.
Ther is no pleasing Charie, he always wants more, should have been named" Oliver"
Assuming netbacks of $45, even at current 3,300 bpd, it would pay out in just over 90 days after which its pure profit.
CHARLIE THEY ARE JUST CLEANING UP THE NEW WELL OF DRILLING FLUIDS
Considering the challenges over the dry season, that was quite a year. I think their Brent forecast is rather conservative at $77, and they are allowing for another really bad dry season.
I'm happy!
Only minor quibble, 17H production since March 1 has averaged 3300, which in comparison to other new wells seems on the low side.
2024 a record start, av. 19,000 bopd in first two months , oil over $80+, robust cash position, continued progress on oil export pilot through Ecuador, will continue to prioritize derisking oil sales so PetroTal can embark on new production growth projects.
The Company commenced drilling well 18H on March 5, 2024 The well is expected to take approximately 60 days to drill and complete with initial production estimated to occur by mid May 2024.
PetroTal is pleased to announce continued advancement on the OCP pilot oil shipment with the signing of three key approvals. In early February 2024, the Company received approval letters from the Ecuadorian Ministry of Environment and Ecuadorian Navy along with the successful signing of a use of port agreement with Petroecuador to start the 100,000 bbl pilot. Pending success of the first pilot, the Company anticipates an additional pilot in the second half of 2024 with recurring sales expected in Q4 2024.
https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1770711771440939211
Also looking forward to the update tomorrow. Last year, we received 8c in dividends. Reckon with futures oil prices as they are for this FY, I reckon a total return of 9c to 10c is possible / likely. The trading range has been 42p to 50p, so that should also bump up, 48p to 60p as a conservative estimate perhaps?
Looking good.
GLA
Figures further boosted by 49k barrels on two more days' output. (I really am looking forward to Manolo's next salvoes on quayside activity and the grand plan supported by update .)
I wonder if that will make them adjust guidance for 2024 (forward Brent price, that is).
Also Brent futures contract to FY end remain above $82 for whole year. Average for remainder of year over $84.
Latest fiscalised production out till 15th. Looks like they have resumed exports after that pause due to barge spillage. Around 15.4k average per day last 6 days since resumption
Now $87. Would be good to consolidate around here.
Brent also pushed past 87.
So that's around 55 million extra in EBITDA annualised. ... on a production volume that is based on getting another year with record (100 years event) drought.
Https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-faces-serious-threat-as-ukraine-attacks-refineries/ar-BB1k647X
Drone strikes on oil refineries/depots 300 miles east of Moscow are having real effect: very useful for swelling the cash pile in readiness for SE extension prep and 3D seismic on this year's capital programme (incl Osheki/Constitucion).
Provided tugmasters can stay awake in the wheelhouse the next 7 months could/should be helpful to PTAL's targets.
Brent $86
Credited on HL just now! FX rate is right on 1.265 as well so that was nice bonus :D