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It should also be noted that Q1 averaged around $82 Brent, where Q2 average is currently considerably higher.
Operational progress continues.
The 17H well was brought onstream at the beginning of March, averaging 4.0mbbl/d for its first 30 days of production. This included producing at 4.5mbbl/d for the last two weeks post switching on of the ESP. This is a strong rate, in-line with company expectations. The 18H well is now drilling ahead and expected onstream in May, with 19H to then drill post that. Again, the drilling programme helps underpin full year production and cash flows.
PetroTal holds 100% in the producing Bretana field, onshore Peru. This produced at 14.2mbbl/d in 2023, driving EBITDA of US$198.3m for the period. Bretana holds a significant 100.2mmbbl of 2P reserves, and PetroTal has a multi-year drilling programme which we expect to take production to approaching 25mbbl/d in 2027 in the 2P case. The company has established multiple export routes for its Bretana crude, including barging to Manaus in Brazil, to the regional Iquitos refinery, and into the ONP pipeline (currently offline) via the Saramuro pump station, helping underpin export reliability via diversity. New export routes are also being brought forward, including via the OCP pipeline through Ecuador and Yurimaguas in Peru. PetroTal also engages in significant local social programmes in order to help reinforce its local licence to operate. The company has a strong balance sheet, holding US$85m of cash (zero debt) at the end of Q1 2024, supporting ongoing CAPEX investment and returns to shareholders, with PetroTal establishing a regular annual dividend of 6.0c/share from Q1 2023, implying a 10% yield at current levels.
As such, PetroTal offers investors regular drilling news flow, strong and growing production based on a material asset, significant cash flows underpinned by the variety of export routes, an increasingly established dividend, and a strong balance sheet.
We have a positive outlook for the shares, and value them in-line with our total risked NAV of 94p.
This is all positive stuff, and going forward we look for more news on the drilling programme, production rates, quarterly dividend levels, and progress on new export routes
As expected update from Ptal with operations running like clockwork clearly state cash is down due capex and dividends, still healthy cash balance, good that river levels are not an issue currently.
Can we break 50p as Bob says we've been stuck at this level for quite some time.
Right on old chap - That's my take on the Solar Eclipse - Bust the 50p Halls of MonteZuma Hoo Doo.
Sturm, you have been here longer than I have. Ptal had a great run of wells with 8H,9H,10H,11H all exceeding expectations. Since then the wells have performed in line with expectations and paid back their investment, if not hitting the heights of those earlier wells. I've looked at the field and can't see why that might be. Any ideas?
Sigh.
If you're not adjusting for dividend, you should look elsewhere.
50p is quite the barrier - was the eclipse a sign that this time it's different?
Beat those drums and Dance the Boolah Boolah to awaken the ancestors out of the earth - the SP approaches 50 pence - glory be - sign on the whirling dervishes to help push baby push that 50 pence SP - only been stuck below 50 pence since Jan 2021.
A mere blink of and eye on a Sphinx
Strongest start to a year in PTAL's history, quarterly average production of 18,500+ bopd. Stage set for record first half and annual production.
Oil price above guidance of $77/bbl Brent bolstering Q1 2024 financial and operational metrics.
https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1778308222106865770
Agreed these are excellent results.
Cash end last quarter $90m plus $2. net receivable in 50 days
Cash end this quarter $63m plus $38m net receivable in 50 days.
I think they are not trying to grow Cash, but return as much as possible while investing in growth and the local environment.
By my reckoning a 2.5c dividend declaration in May most likely now.
Excellent roductio increase:
PetroTal achieved average production of 18,518 barrels of oil per day ("bopd")
in Q1 2024, in line with guidance. This represents an increase of
approximately 23% and 54% from Q4 2023 and Q1 2023, respectively. Production
during the past 30 days has averaged approximately 20,500 bopd.
Cash down due to:
PetroTal exited Q1 2024 in a strong position with approximately $63 million of
unrestricted cash and $22 million of restricted cash for a total of $85
million at March 31, 2024. Restricted cash includes amounts reserved for the
social trust funds to be deposited at a later date. Cash liquidity decreased
from year end 2023 levels as a result of increased capital expenditures from
drilling program commencement in Q1 2024, March 15, 2024 dividend distribution
and revenue payments received in early April
G_G_G, you might not have to wait much longer for that update. They're sometimes quite fast (around now), so I'd expect it next week at the latest. They might have pulled in 12 million USD more than guided/expected in Q1; but there's a lot of moving parts (timing/sales, brent, capex vs budget etc). I honestly wouldn't be surprised to get 2.5 USD cent this quarter.
But let's see; I'd rather they save some powder for more buy backs. Regardless, I'm not selling (or buying) so SP action doesn't matter.
Another company with 0 debt and > 20K BOPD and a lot of cash (196 million USD) would be Valeura (same excellent drilling record). I'm still wondering why they're not distributing some of that back to shareholders (they also have nearly a million BOO inventory up for sale in Q2). Probably for some regulatory reasons? They have their own "Block192" target aswell, huuuuge natural gas target in Turkey. Wonderful market (re. demand); don't understand why they've not wildcat'ed it yet.
Well one thing's for sure, the next update is going to be quite something. Not many companies have this much in cash for dividends and buybacks, zero debt, with huge reserves and production upside (if they can get the pipeline working). I think there's a good +25-50% by year end if Brent stays in the 80's, the Amazon water levels don't break record lows, and the locals don't do anything crazy. I'm confident on Brent +$80 and reasonably confident on the other two points. Have picked up 300k @ 46p average over the past couple of weeks. Tempted to go in for some more given the update we're going to get in a few weeks will be very positive. Only major thing that worries me is an oil spill int he Amazon, which would be catastrophic for the environment and the company. The irony is the pipeline was meant to be a safe way to export the oil and instead local h@lfwits have been sabotaging it a game of environmental Russian roulette. GLA
Just looking now at recent RNS, buy back volume has really dropped.
I'm sure they can buy back (in the next period) a lot more - free flow is fairly high and 100K shares per day /2 million per month is far from the cap (and not enough IMO). I'd like to see major shareholders selling pro rata though, to avoid increase in their ownership and also to avoid SP raising more from the buybacks (to get a substantial number of shares cut out at a lower price - to the benefit of LT holders and LT dividend).
I dont think they can be much more aggressive unless they do an off market offer for shares because they'll be constrained by rules around trading volume etc.
Under the TSX rules, the total number of common shares PetroTal is permitted to purchase on the TSX is subject to a daily purchase limit of 190,542 common shares (representing 25% of the average daily trading volume of 762,168 common shares on the TSX, calculated from the initial date of listing on the TSX, being February 16, 2023 to the calender month ended April 30, 2023); provided that PetroTal may make one block purchase per calendar week that exceeds such limits.
Yes my suspicion was that they are near the end of the current 1 year programme of buybacks and will ramp it back up once it is renewed with Stifel. Perhaps something that will also be communicated in last week of Apr RNS for Q1 results if not by mid May.
Buy back program finishes May 17th.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/PTAL/commencement-of-share-buyback-dividend-timetable-yy52tqkgfblcvwy.html
So PTAL should have announcement about what happens next at next update.
He's still waiting for the SP to go to 40p so he can buy back in. Going to be along wait IMO.
Yes its just to annoy Bob.
What's the purpose behind these daily 17,000 buybacks. Is it just to annoy Bananabob.
BBB stop panicking. it will all come right in the end...
Decided to make my second investment in darkest Peru (that's a Paddington Bear reference). Cash balances. Undemanding PE & EV:EBITDA multiples. Decent dividends. Modest share buybacks. Increased sales in Q1 2024. 5x top-line growth 2020-2023. But you know all this already.
And there you have it - after months of buy backs - the total number of shares still way above 900 million - buy backs are about as much use as a wax frying pan in a kitchen.