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I'm not an oiler or geologist so appreciate the views of those who have the experience and insight in those areas. I do wonder however about divergent forecasts by people appearing, (to me at least ), to be knowledgeable. I'm not including the obvious 🤡 s.
My thoughts are:
It is a positive that the moroccon government has supported SOU, shows commitment.
There is a desperate need for gas and PRD and CHAR whom I'm also invested in, are seem by Morocco as a means to that end.
Can they get the gas out is where I see the disagreement? Mostly about SJ working or not, making it seem that success or failure is riding on this.
My understanding is that it is not the last resort but that if it fails, a delay and refinancing would be required to pursue this further.
Can the experienced members without an agenda comment on these thoughts please. I suspect there are a number of PIs in a similar position to me.
Regards
Speculiar
Speculiar,
I have no personal experience in the O&G industry either but, as I’ve mentioned on here previously, I have a pal who is in the industry and who works specifically in well testing. I shared a bit of info from discussions I’d had with him back in a post on 29/2/24 which may be of interest. To summarise:
• There’s never a 100% guarantee that any testing will work and Paul said as much during the March presentation. But of note, my pal was at that meeting and, from all the information that was presented by Paul, he is as confident as he can be that Sandjet should do the job.
• However, even if Sandjet doesn’t do what we hope it will, there are plenty of options available to stimulate the well to flow. These include acid wash +/- acid squeeze, nitrogen lift, bigger perforating guns, drilling another well optimised for specific reservoirs aimed at reducing formation damage etc. (Though note that the latter two options would include fairly significant additional costs).
So overall, the odds are certainly in our favour that Sandjet should work and be able to extend beyond the formation damage in the targetted reservoirs (Ma/TGB-6; TGB-4; TGB-2; Moulouya fan).
But if not, then I think it’s always worth remembering the presence of the A-sands in MOU-3 which could also be perforated if necessary, as per the most recent RNS:
“Several Sandjet perforating runs may or may not be required to perforate additional sands depending on the outcome of the initial perforating results.”
In the FY results [RNS 10/4/24] Paul commented:
“We have also encountered shallow higher pressure gas that was BETTER PROTECTED FROM FORMATION DAMAGE whilst drilling by the setting of a shallow casing string. This can also be perforated and tested now using Sandjet, even though it sits behind two casing strings.” [my emphasis]
And as Paul stated at the Proactive presentation:
“[the A sands are] maybe connecting with somewhere in the order of 30Bcf of gas which in real terms, net-back to us is like $150M, so not to be sniffed at to add that to our programme.”
Also of note from the Annual Report (p35):
“Potentially significant gas resources may be present within this shallow unlogged zone in the context of the first phase of a potential CNG development option.”
(Remember that the A-sands were unexpected pre-drill and so were, in effect, ‘bonus’ sands for PRD yet, as a comparison, they alone contain 50% more gas than Chariot is hoping to prove up at Dartois for its CNG project.)
And again from the AR (p35):
“Within the shallow closure over-pressured gas was unexpectedly encountered in an 11 metre-thick sand from 339 to 350 metres Measured Depth with a 3% formation gas show. The interval was estimated from the mud weight alone to be 122 psi over-pressured.”
(cont...)
(cont...)
As per Methodology’s excellent analysis, gas wells in the Rharb have average flow rates of over 1mmcfgpd per metre of net pay: https://www.reddit.com/r/PredatorOilandGasPRD/comments/t8ssg0/mou1_the_rharb_basin_net_pay_vs_well_flow_rate/
So, in summary, the A-sands alone:
• have a higher COS of being successfully perforated by Sandjet due to the reduced formation damage and could be easily added to the upcoming testing programme, and
• contain more than sufficient volume of gas (~30Bcf) and are likely to flow at rates (over 10mmcfgpd) that would readily support a commercial CNG project.
Nothing’s 100% certain, of course but, IMO, all the information provided by the company so far suggests a reasonably high COS of achieving CNG commerciality.
Just my thoughts, but I hope this may be of some help…
Billyray : thanks for taking the time for the review , it's always good to go back and look at why we all invested in the first place, if you feel that in essence nothing has changed , then you hold which is what I think most of us are doing . We've been waiting a few years ( some even longer ) so lets see what results SJ produces , but i note with interest the other options open to us . It's going to be a VERY interesting few weeks / months .
Thanks Billy, you’re becoming one of my favourite posters…
And your memory for details & dates said months or years ago is something else. 👍🏽
Good morning BRV, thank you for your detailed post.
If SH go back through ALL the info available, and add all the gross intervals inc newly discovered shallow zones that SJ can fully test, add up everything and apply $5m per 1 Bcf, SH will fully understand what we might actually be sitting on across MOU 1-4 plus the gigantic jurassic structure MOU 5.
Then please remember the other already identified targets across our License (8 or 9)
Then focus on the probable OIL, quite likely huge reserves.
GRH states his position that Guercif could alter the European gas market due its size, makes me wonder what exactly might we find in those other 8/9 targets.
GRH also states he might never wish to sell PRD shares.
It will take a number of years to unlock a detailed picture of the Gas, Oil & Condensates riches.
As we discover and prove up flows, with each 1 Bcf = $5m, lets discount by 50% so there is profit for the next Co to develop the resource, now start thinking in terms of how many Tcf there might be, mind boggling numbers, and therefore a very large market cap.
We cannot adjust the TIME ELEMENT, we just have to wait and see.
Then there is IRL, I feel we are right on the cusp….
T&T update soon….
DYOR/DD
GLA
MEM
Thanks BRV ! Additionally, some might want also to re-watch the TD Tools test video, see "Watch SFP Test", stop it at 40 secs & read the triple string dimensions & enjoy the roar from 3 minutes on :-) I have also seen/read? that perforating pressure can be increased by 20/30 % if encountering a very stubborn zone, though increased risks & wear to equipment/people/etc. And perforating can also extend to 30 mins, if necessary.
My thoughts are the risks are mostly equipment, operational & tactical, a 3000-5000 psi abrasive water jet, after cutting through 2 cemented steel casings, should have no trouble perforating deeply into hardened drilling mud, especially with lots of high pressure gas in the sands bursting to get out. GLA, DAB
https://www.tdtoolsinc.com/perforating
Donalb, this is a reply sent to me in response to asking about "formation damage"and how they cope with it.
"Typically the timescale is the adjustment that we make to go farther into the formation. By lengthening the time on station, we are delivering more sand to cut perforation tunnel, which is the goal. That is one of the big advantages over explosives- the explosive perforating gun is limited in the amount of explosive charge that can be loaded into it based on its size. Since we are conveying cutting energy from the surface, we can continue to send that cutting energy in the form of pressurized sand slurry for as long as we want. At some point, there are diminishing returns on that time of course, but when we know there are near wellbore damage problems, extra cutting time/sand will extend the perforation tunnel and hopefully get us past the damage. The second adjustment might be to increase the pressure at the tool a little. Our typical target pressure at the tool is 2,500 psi, when we know there are problems to overcome, sometimes we will increase the pressure (by increasing flow rate) to 3,000 psi. The challenge here is that increasing beyond 3,000 psi will shorten the amount of pump time we can get before it is time to come out of the well and put in fresh jets so we have to strike a balance there."
There is more on Reddit by the way
Gla
Taff
Bdt