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Feeling more confident towards my investment in PPC and dare i say it looking forward to the remainder of this year with renewed optimism and our potential game changing drill in Paraguay.
Twas a really good positive RNS, confirming production up and exports up so sales revenues will be up. And the SP is still the same as before the announcement. Really good news, really disappointing market reaction. Twas ever thus.
Maybe news of flow rates and more drilling in Salta/PG might help.... maybe all these good things are like adding pressure to a volcano so although the SP hasn't moved yet, when it does it could really go..... or not. Generally with President it's 'or not' but maybe next time it'll be different....
Atom investment ?
Paraguay drill this year ?
Louisiana production back on line ?
Two new oil wells drilled and producing ?
Third well PG 13-1 operations on going ?
Now we have stable production and a route to export oil with domestic prices on the up, plenty for investors to look forward to . IMO
"From April with already an announcement on Monday that prices at the pump will increase by 10%. President expects more of a gradual increase reducing the material gap to world pricing"
"I look forward to informing you of further developments over the coming months."
Absolutely agree with all of that comeonvog. Further with the RNS a few days ago you would have thought 10% better prices plus Louisianna production being sold again we would have had much more of an increase in the sp.
Maybe the uplift it a bit delayed and it will move up in time. An sp of 2p would be a start!
Atb,
Northern
in all honesty a company producing what we are now doing, and the prospect of success in Paraguay, it should be around 20p. I have seen many companies that are really poorly run with SP's far in excess of where we are today. I am struggling to get my head around this.
What's not to like?
I've been struggling to get my head round the sp performance for the last couple of years. All they seem.to have done to me is incrementally improve whether it's costs, revenue or production. Like you say too Paraguay will be on the horizon before not too long. Fingers crossed our wait will be rewarded.
Atb,
Northern
Past performance still in charge of the SP. That should change soon imo especially if the Salta wells come in as projected.
I think the true value here is 6p
I think the for the sp performance is Argentina, we have to live with the reduce barrel price for oil and gas. We do t have much spare cash and output has hardly increased despite the spending. On top of these there is the poor state of the Argentina economy and peronist politics. As things stand there is probably a critical mass point to make I work but we don't appear to be near it interms of output. Best hope is Paraguay
Easy to forget the price we were getting in December 2020 ...."The oil price receivable by President for December production is estimated at more than the US$42 per barrel mark for the first time since March with the current spot gas prices achieved in the first week of December being US$2.10 per MMBtu "
We were receiving $60 per barrel for oil at Salta last month.
"From April with already an announcement on Monday that prices at the pump will increase by 10%. President expects more of a gradual increase reducing the material gap to world pricing"
Louisiana we get full market value i would assume.
The lower oil and gas prices over the past 7 plus years has caused the fund raising and dilution for very little increase in output basically we've subsidised the Argentinan economy. That's why the shareprice is stuck and buyers don't come in when we have good news, we sell the majority of our output at a substantial discount. Imagine where this would be if we'd got full market price. Hopefully with the pressure from the IMF we could see some improvement, Argentina should have been a world leading oil and gas player but they bungled it and we paid the price. At least its still viable thanks to PL
Eccles
The Argentine oil price fixing has always been in place (>10 years) so I do not think that is responsible for the dilution/ placings. PPC over committing to a country like Argentina was the problem in my opinion. Then continuously failing to meeting production targets (eg. 2019 - 3000 BOEPD, 2020 - 7500 BOEPD, 2021 - 3600 BOEPD)
Feeling a more positive mood descending on PPC , could we actually start to back our investment like they do on other boards .
Brasso, yes your correct about the targets, I was trying show that instead of making profits to reinvest back into the business, shareholders have had to dig deep to basically stand still. People where asking why the SP never responds to positive news, so that was my conclusion. You would probably be better at making a stab at how much difference the price fix has cost . My guess over ten years is $100 million . Targets are easier ti hit if you can throw cash at it, but everything here has to be done on a shoe string, in a way we're better off than we should be. Others would have failed. I've backed this for several years and taken part in every fund raising in that time. Paraquay is the route out. Isn't hindsight a wonderful thing.
Eccles
I agree with you and are also a long term suffering investor here. Argentina will never be the company maker here and an objective to maintain production in the 2500 - 3000 BOEPD range is more realistic. They need to diversify with production from different countries to offset the assets in Argentina.
Paraguay is the way out for many and possibly a route to a profitable investment for the brave.
estimated chance of success of 30%, back last year talk of drilling H1 end rainy season, traders move in leading up too drilling, no real update since on this drill, need see clear path too this drill,
Two failed drills behind us, my perception was that was partially down to the drill team but majority down to location. 30% is meaningless really, what it is saying is this is a high risk attempt to release to oil, its there we just need to tap into it. What would be more helpful is to say if we don't achieve a working well we will have a plan B. Is it a success or bust shot.
What's the downside result?
Argentina is poorly run country with 52% inflation and rising, IMF has just allowed them default on there loan, massive corruption, not sure many investors want be involved in this country, was always high risk investment 4 PL.
Argentina haven't defaulted, but they have agreed to changes which will enable them to repay the loan. One change agreed
By the senate involves the lowering of energy subsidises which will result in PPC receiving an increase in the barrel price.
You can find lot of info on the web on the agreements
https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/ARG
Agree almost hedged there oil, not reap benefits high oil gas prices, more they can export out better, risk plays big part in valuing company's, still say this is cheap valuation market cap,
Brasso3 " Paraguay is the way out for many and possibly a route to a profitable investment for the brave."
Lets not forget we now also have ATOM, yes i know profit from that is way in the distance , but our green credentials are there and that alone could be a game changer. We are also now producing from new wells at Puesto Guardian , Salta the first to be drilled for ten years. If we do get production from these for the next decade like they have in the past,then that's a good investment. Louisiana is back up and producing at a time when we really needed those $.
"With one new well in Salta on stream and still stabilising, the second to be online at the end of this week and the third to be drilled this month, Salta commercial oil production is already increasing and is expected to continue as the other new wells come on. The waterflood secondary recovery project in Rio Negro scheduled to start within 6 months is very promising for both stabilising natural decline and increasing the amount of recoverable oil. Work is progressing to prepare for the high impact exploration well in Paraguay to be drilled this year targeting, based on internal estimates, 230 million barrels of unrisked oil in place
"We therefore look forward to an improved performance this year with regular newsflow keeping the market updated".
We can all live in the past , but what i will say is if Peter can keep a cap on spending this year and keep production around 3000/3500 the figures should look a lot more healthy going forward. Just to reiterate the Paraguay drill will be a free carry for share holders as costs relating to this concession have mostly been paid for by LTH , a bitter pill to swallow as they constantly remind us but that's the way of investing to early in a E&P company. IMO
As I say investors will come in 4 trade leading up too drill, not convinced this will gain same interest as many other oily company's 88 ect because of Paraguay