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Started: Fallingknife1, 14 Feb 2024 12:38
Last post: Fallingknife1, 14 Feb 2024 12:38
So am out. Will probably recover now but I wish I had a stop loss policy with more of my shares. The pist Xmas update was appalling and the company seems to have lost its way. Divi was decent. I think the SP was £10 at one stage so my entry point at 600p loomed timely buy the SP collapse showed otherwise.
Started: Fallingknife1, 20 Jul 2023 11:41
Last post: Fallingknife1, 20 Jul 2023 11:41
Though this share has become accident prone. Wouldn't be surprised to see a bid given how lowly the SP is compared to historic highs. Holding for now but losing patience with the performance tbh.
Started: bunsenburner123, 23 May 2023 08:55
Last post: bunsenburner123, 23 May 2023 08:55
Cant believe the reaction this morning. Fully expect this to finish flat. DYOR
Started: DimitryReacts, 12 Jan 2023 11:21
Last post: EdwardSeaton, 12 Apr 2023 20:02
It is curious how such similar companies can be valued so differently.
I hold a bit of Churchill for family reasons. It is almost valued as a tech company on a 20 times PER, whereas long established mining companies like Bisichi are valued on a 0.5 times PER (CAP is £25m, and it is about to report around £45m profit).
And then a large mining company like Thungela has a PER of 1.4, and a dividend yield of 42%!
There is a lot of madness and irrationality out there, and some very easy money.
Churchill China's Mcap is 140m with similar 8-9m PBT. We are undervalued.
PE = 8 is too cheap
+
Outlook is strong for 2023.
NBP Gas futures have been falling for months now. We are getting closer to the 100p mark for 2024 summer. Still double of the historic gas prices but it looks better every week.
In my opinion, Portmeirion Group PLC appears to be performing well despite the challenging economic environment. The company's strong Christmas trading period and robust demand for its consumer goods brands is a positive indication of the company's overall financial health. Additionally, the CEO's statement that the company's sales footprint is increasingly diversified, with the US as its largest sales market and 75% of sales now outside the UK, and that the company has been successful in navigating supply chain disruption and ongoing effects of the war in Ukraine is a positive indication of the company's ability to adapt to and overcome challenges. The company's focus on long term strategy, such as driving growth through greater customer reach and improving operating margins, is also a positive sign of its forward-thinking approach. However, it's worth noting that the company's outlook for 2023 is cautious due to expected weaker consumer demand, and it's uncertain how the company will perform in the future.
Started: Scoobydoo321, 11 Jan 2023 09:35
Last post: Scoobydoo321, 12 Jan 2023 10:18
Similar to CHRT, which I was in, given how bad sentiment was prior to TU, there are not many sellers (I hope). Thus, with the run-up from now to the final results, I'd expect SP to reflect the value of the company. with peeps buys > sells. Thus, expecting a rapid rise into the 400s...famous last words.
PMP was handed on a plate to us punters :)
Ooo...divie would be nice.
Cheers.
Hi Scoob. Yes I sau -certain things I like in today's statement. Has fallen a long way without smashing ??. The divi needs reinstating and although I am not bowled over by the SP there is sure a cuppa-la things to raise a glass to!
I thought PMP looked dishy...
Churchill's TU read across to PMP = positive - hence the buy-ins.
+
Oversold with the fear of the cost of living crisis
Last post: Scoobydoo321, 11 Jan 2023 09:34
This was way oversold in the low 300s
Results out on 17/3.
Per TU 12/1/22
We are pleased to report an excellent Christmas seasonal trading period, with very high demand for our consumer homeware brands around the world and strong sell-through across our key channels. We therefore now expect sales to be at least £104 million or 10% above current consensus market expectation forecasts for FY21. This is 18% above 2020 sales of £87.9 million and 12% ahead of pre-Covid sales of £92.8 million in 2019.
We are mindful of ongoing Covid risks and their potential impact on sales markets, global supply chains and the associated cost inflation, particularly in container shipping. We expect further growth in 2022
Started: Fallingknife1, 14 Jan 2022 16:56
Last post: Fallingknife1, 14 Jan 2022 16:56
Have a lot on their plate. PMP is doing well and worth 1000p in view. The divi should be restored which will underpin the price . PMP is doing well online as well as the US and has taken remedial action on South Korea. Deserves a few cups for its good performance to date. I remain a buyer.
Started: Fallingknife1, 14 Sep 2021 14:58
Last post: BodRuncie, 12 Jan 2022 08:16
Have there really been no posts since 14th Sept 2021?
Well, we can copy and paste the last message :)
Let's have another go to crack 700p
and everything on a plate it seems. Pottery is not everyone's cup of tea but this is fine dining for investors. More to come here and 700p is only the beginning.. The dividend reinstatement is great news and I will be put it back in to buy more. Buy.
Started: Fallingknife1, 14 Sep 2021 11:43
Last post: Fallingknife1, 14 Sep 2021 11:43
the update would be a load of old crock-ery but it is really good. Been punting this all year I am glad to say and though I paid 700p initially I have paid much less over the last few months. I think this will recover eventually to 1000p.
Last post: turnkey17, 12 Aug 2021 18:37
big 10k share trade too
Started: Fallingknife1, 9 Aug 2021 17:27
Last post: turnkey17, 10 Aug 2021 15:04
today's recovery is more like it !
and no plates are being smashed? I feel like smashing one myself due to the SP drop though I expect it should rise. Already it has clawed back a little. Ridiculous drop imho and unfathomable.
Started: turnkey17, 27 Jul 2021 10:48
Last post: turnkey17, 27 Jul 2021 10:48
sales up 34%. dividend payments to resume. stockopedia says this is only 13 times earnings. Im in.
Started: Fallingknife1, 12 Jul 2021 15:22
Last post: Scoobydoo321, 15 Jul 2021 00:18
Absolutely, certainly got a big thumbs up from Paul Scott in Stockopedia who also holds this in his long term coffee can.
Excellent update and the market is missing a trick I feel. Restored divi and sales outstripping pre-covid levels. Down on my recent investment but looking to add more.
I think this will get a lift from this months update. Should be some buying ahead of the statement. Rebought last week and looking to build a position here.
Started: Scoobydoo321, 6 Apr 2021 17:40
Last post: Nakedtraitor, 6 Jul 2021 19:00
Quiet not just here. Markets been pretty boring (lacking volume for weeks).
Hi Scoob. Will be rejoining you tomorrow after having bought these years ago, watched them rise without selling before falling and I cut my losses. I see these are very undervalued now.
hello hello......anybody out there out there ....o..ut ...there
very quiet here
Target Price here - it will not be 1200p
since there was a fund raising in 2020.
However 18 months, 1000p - on the prudent side - is very possible, given:
- Self help for ecommerce
- Self help for China market (barely tapped prior to 2020)
- Sorted out Korea market (had probs in the past with grey market)
- new designs / collaborations
- self help in costs rationalisation in 2020 - follow on benefits for 2021 and beyond.
Company is on full turnaround mode. Given the level of self help it has available - there is ample scope for it to improve margins and volumes of products sold.
Started: tollbar, 22 Mar 2021 11:27
Last post: Scoobydoo321, 6 Apr 2021 17:41
@tollbar - what time frame for your target price ?
Why the fall back to offer price 550s - when recent TU was very good?
Stronger $ - does this affect them?
ISA - bed and ISA?
Over last few days, has dropped offering bargain discount of > 10%
Given this is a good solid manufacturing + retail biz - this should be following in line with value stocks.
Investor presentation is here if anyone missed it: https://www.investormeetcompany.com/investor/meeting/preliminary-results-for-the-year-ended-31-december-2020
I think this share still has plenty to run, my next target is £7.50, which gets them back to around the market cap they had before the Korea and covid difficulties. Plus they now have more online sales (higher GM) and we should see more organic growth generally (need new crockery for that dinner party you can finally have?), so still plenty of upside.
Last post: moonwalk, 16 Jan 2021 10:47
About Right?
Started: tollbar, 23 Oct 2020 11:40
Last post: tollbar, 14 Jan 2021 09:39
SP +40% since this post. You are welcome. :-)
They usually make most of their profits in H2:
PBT H1 | H2 | FY
2018 2.1m | 7.6m | 9.7m
2019 0.5m | 6.9m | 7.4m
2020 (2.7)m | ?? 7-8m?? | ??4-5m??
Typically trades at 12x PBT. 12x £5m = £60m, vs market cap now of c.£55m
Net assets also about £55m now
So base case makes this look safe bet which won't plummet on next results.
Upside? If they get back to run rate of around £9m PBT, then market might re-rate them to around 12x PBT = ~£110m, roughtly 2x current market cap.
Started: Scoobydoo321, 14 Jan 2021 08:14
Last post: Scoobydoo321, 14 Jan 2021 08:14
Not so sleepy - great performance under difficult circumstances
Started: Low_PE_Seeker, 24 Sep 2020 09:21
Last post: Low_PE_Seeker, 24 Sep 2020 09:21
Key takeaways from Interim results:
* We anticipate returning to profitability in the second half of 2020.
* Pleasingly, our two UK factories have almost returned to pre Covid-19 operating levels
* Expecting dividends to be resumed in FY21 assuming a sustained return to normalised trading.
* We have continued to see an improving trend in sales from June in H1 into the last three months but are cognisant that with our important trading period ahead there remains much uncertainty around the world due to Covid-19.
Started: Compass007, 13 Aug 2020 08:32
Last post: Compass007, 13 Aug 2020 08:32
Still don't think that this RNS will be the catalyst to move the SP but its good news all the same and as things unfold I still see strong movement North soon.....strong buy for me at these levels
Started: Compass007, 22 Jul 2020 09:51
Last post: Compass007, 22 Jul 2020 09:51
still no movement on the SP yet but when it does I expect fireworks and yes I can see the divi being reinstated that just maybe the spark also the rotation from tech stocks then they realise the multiples and P/E they are paying is ridiculous ...GLA
looks a good company. bought a few.
only 14 mill shares. 40p dividend. should be reinstated.
online sales account for 30% which doubled during covid, equivalent to 60% of sales. But i assume its Uk only..........
Started: Compass007, 17 Jun 2020 10:34
Last post: Compass007, 17 Jun 2020 10:34
Been watching this Company from the side lines for the last 12 months and decided to dip my toe in today they have a very shrewd management ....not many companies could get an oversubscribed placing away at a 3% discount that was a fantastic bit of business...if the divi is reinstated soon I would expect to see circa £5.00 pretty soon.
Started: BlahBlahDoh, 25 Nov 2019 10:26
Last post: magicnumber, 29 Mar 2020 09:40
Thanks for the explanation CJ. Margins must be much lower in the US than in SK, to tempt agents into "monetising" the difference. Presumably there was an effective legal remedy, given their apparent confidence that it won't happen again.
Like you say though, the real issue is overall sales decline. If management are right, and this is mainly due to distribution problems, the decline should be reversed very quickly, as false sales are immediately eliminated and supply to the higher margin region returns to normal levels?
....just to be clear - this is why they are confident of higher Korean sales this next year,
but clearly the previous 'false' US sales mean that they will decline for the year (excl. Nambe).
The important figure is however an overall decline in like for like sales of 5% which is of some concern.
I'm not sure your reading this correctly - they state the US decline was driven by stopping reshipping on to Korea.
i.e. They were making what they thought were extra sales to the US - but these were going to Korea, which they have now stopped.
This meant falsely higher US sales and a big decline in Korean sales - not a pretty result, but not untrustworthy - rather they were duped by untrustworthy agents!
Trading update shows a 12% decrease in the US. That makes more sense. Wonder why they pretended the only problem was in the less important South Korean market. Untrustworthy guidance, imo.
I think they will recover, but it shows some risks as they get larger - having to rely on going into more markets + other products.
This both spreads the risks, but they can also lose control with new unknown distributors etc.
It appears in Korea that 'other market' distributors were buying PMP products and then selling them on to Korea through the back door. This is what led to an exaggerated slump in Korea's sales, but also an exaggerated rise in rest of the world sales, so a rebalancing has to take place. Short term this means that PMP were 'fooled' into producing too much product, that with fairly fixed overheads means a delayed hit.
However, having only ever increased or kept the same dividend in over 30 years since listing, they will be loath to lose that record and I for one would keep faith in them, although I think short term they will be outpaced by Churchill who have a better growth path at present. On balance keep for the dividend.
Started: Fallingknife1, 14 Nov 2019 09:17
Last post: Defender16, 14 Nov 2019 11:36
It's going to be a bloody big hill for Portmerion to climb, so this is going to be a long term prospect. Meanwhile if they can hold the dividend then at least there will be some light at the end of this particular tunnel.
and Korea is just about done for the company. They have tried various levers and they haven't worked so I can't see what options are left. Price is firming a little after an initial sell off so I make it a hold for now but sadly will sell soon and move on.