Tribe Technology set to deliver healthy pipeline of orders from Tier-One miners. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Part 1:
24 March 2017:
“Perth and Dolphin are at the core of Parkmead’s Greater Perth Area (GPA) oil hub project which has been fully appraised, with a combined total of 17 wells drilled, and has expected recoverable reserves and contingent resources of approximately 104 million barrels of oil”
17 November 2017:
“Greater Perth Area (“GPA”) invitation to tender announced to the service provider market, covering the pre-FEED, FEED and subsequent development phases of the project”
“13 alliance submissions received from 35 companies across all project components of drilling, subsea construction and export route options”
“In discussions with a number of leading, international service companies and oil companies”
“Parkmead has received financial proposals for significant parts of the development, reducing the capital expenditure needed to bring the project onstream”
29 March 2018:
“Parkmead now in full control of the GPA oil hub project with operatorship and 100% equity”
“Agreement signed with Nexen Petroleum, a subsidiary of China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), to undertake a detailed engineering study for the potential subsea tie-back of the GPA project to the Nexen-operated Scott facilities in the Central North Sea”
16 November 2018:
“Engineering study confirmed the technical feasibility of a tie-back of the GPA project to the Scott facilities”
“Parkmead has entered into commercial discussions with the Scott field partnership in order to explore terms for a tie-back of GPA to Scott”
“New GPA reservoir study concluded that stimulating the Claymore formation would result in a considerable increase in well productivity and is likely to increase the project’s oil recovery factor”
29 March 2019:
“Parkmead has entered into commercial discussions with the Scott field partnership, led by China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) International, in order to explore terms for a tie-back of the Greater Perth Area (“GPA”) oil hub project to the Scott facilities”
“Parkmead also holding discussions with a number of leading, internationally-renowned service companies in relation to the GPA project”
“A tie-back to Scott is one path to potentially unlock the substantial value of the GPA project”
15 November 2019:
“Parkmead is in commercial discussions with the Scott field partnership in order to potentially agree terms for a tie-back of the Greater Perth Area (“GPA”) to the Scott facilities”
“Parkmead is also holding discussions with a number of leading, internationally-renowned service companies in relation to the GPA project”
27 March 2020:
“Parkmead is in commercial discussions with the Scott field partnership, including CNOOC, in order to potentially agree terms for a tie-back of the Greater Perth Area ("GPA") to the Scott facilities”
“Parkmead is also holding discussions with a number of leading, internationally-renowned service companies in relation to the GPA project”
CJohnSpain - is 25% realistic? Who knows. Many have argued that it will never happen due to the H2S, but that is exactly what a lot of the work has been done to address.
I've posted similar before, but will shortly post a current timeline over the last 4 years from results and prelims - their words on GPA. There's a lot of what appears to be copy and paste, but read carefully, there are subtle changes to wording throughout.
The latest interims statement is clear - they have a commercial proposal on the table now, and there is no technical reason why it cannot go ahead.
Given that, personally I think 25% risking seems low now - of more interest is what % they have to give up to get the deal done.
ab76, every $10/bbl adds £130m = $180m or thereabouts at today's FX.
That is to the P50 post-tax NPV of the Perth field alone - i.e. not adding anything for Dolphin, Lowlander (which I think they have relinquished), Andrew, Beauly .....or Athena (if that were ever to come back on the table!).
Hi Robs 12,
you could look at it this way:
- if GPA doesn't come off, PMG is fairly valued
- if it does come off, there is very large upside.
What I'm not sure about is the 25% figure. Is that realistic?
I'm not a specialist resources investor, so don't have an informed opinion.
It's collaboration that's going to pull off GPA .this takes time and planning......It will happen one way or another !
Indeed, exactly what most of us long termers have been saying for years.
You could also argue that if GPA doesn't go ahead, then Fynn Beauly and Fynn Andrew are out too (both discoveries, risked at 10%), which is another 5.8p off the risked NPV.
The flip side is that GPA is THE project they have been working on pulling together and bringing to market for several years, and the upside if it becomes 'unrisked' is huge. Even if they have to give up half of it to fund it and get the deal done - hopefully we'll find out soonish..
Total risked NPV is 161.6p in the Finncap report.
However, 103p of that is due to GPA. GPA is risked at 25%.
Take 161.6p -103 = 58.6p and you have the risked NPV in the three out of four cases in which GPA doesn't happen for one reason or another.
So the fate of this ticker rests largely on developments at GPA.
Ps: I hold, but very sceptical indeed about the risked and unrisked NPVs
Still a long way to go before TC breaks even.
Prior to the farm purchase (at 50p/sh), his average was just over 70p IIRC, and Ryan Stroulger considerably higher.
Looking at shareprice shortly after ST's tips, it doesnt aways go up the next day or shortly after. In fact, Parkmead's share price has gone down just as many times as its gone up after his tips. Technically, the price is in a uptrend, and having risen from 26p level to the 30's, the price was consolidating. It was only a matter of time that it would resume its uptrend. As there are no more sellers left to take profit from 26p, it was primed for the next leg up. This time, the price went up easily on ST's tip, and given the volumes which are unsually high, it does suggest there could be some instutional buying. As long as the price keeps going upwards I dont care where the buying is coming from.
I would agree. I don’t think this is down to Investors Chronicle alone.
Are Kistos looking? Or Longboat? Maybe another entity?
Something behind today’s rise anyway.
Hello All,
Todays trading volume was unusually high....this ticker has not seen this kind of volume in the past two years.
This does not seem to be just retail investor induced, it might be that there is significant Institutional buying here...big fish accumulating looks like!!
Agreed on most of the comments here. My fair value for this was around 85-90p as it stands today, without any significant news announcements from Platypus and co. This ticker is massively undervalued.
didn't get to do my next top up at 50p today alas.. but tomorrow is another day.. roll strongly on, hopefully
The Finncap report calculates total risked NPV at 161.6p/share, with the majority of that (103p) due to GPA priced with Brent at $55/bbl, and risked at 25%.
The unrisked NPV for GPA is stated as US$613m, and they say every $10/bbl increase in Brent adds ~£130m to the P50 NPV.
With Brent now at $65/bbl, that unrisked NPV for GPA heads toward $793m, or 532p/share, risked at 25% = 133p/share.
So notwithstanding any other changes in gas prices etc (all currently higher than the Finncap figures stated, and any knock on effects to valuation of other fields/explo etc), that increases the current total risked NPV to ~192p/share.
(If my figures and theirs are correct!).
The WoS numbers are frightening (though nothing in the risked NPV for them, all valued at zero)
You’ll be able to sell for 48.5p on Monday. This week is a 25% IC rise. Stick or twist?
I waited to see if a retrace or a push on from 45p.. when push on, I topped up.. and would top up again if this moves up to 50p .. Given I believe this share to still be significantly undervalued, buying for FOMO reasons is an ok play even in 50's p in my mind here now.
Can't believe this is under 100p!
2P reserves of 46MMBoe worth over 100p!
25m cash in the bank + onshore low cost Dutch gas assets+ potential wind farm!
This will be 200p next year.
GLA
Absolutely cheap as chips......unrisked value is £1.62 ! Parkmead have the assets. Unrisked Value £15 and more !
Twist then :) We’ve all been there!
Be 50p Monday afternoon. Stick or twist?
*Print not point
The Simon Thompson effect. Provided it goes to point on Friday more upside to come. Need to hold today’s gains tomorrow.
Nice surprise, just having tea and biccies and thought 'wonder how Parkmead are doing'?.
Assume this a reaction to the IC article as no RNS?
Parkmead are currently worth £1.62 simply arithmetic !
Maybe just a realisation of how stupidly cheap this share is?
Is this all on the back of the Investors Chronicle article?