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Started: Rothers, 27 Jun 2024 08:26
Last post: BilboMultiBaggin, 2 Jul 2024 21:49
Quite agree, agree I’m not seeing higher highs, or lower lows on this one just yet,
Play the range, not thee day!
Much less risky imo
21:03, that kind of issue helps distinguish between folks who are traders versus value investors … both very valid ways to try to make money, but very different outlooks, strategies and tactics.
Not sure that I would advise buying and selling on movements in the 5% range. That's much more of a punt on market sentiment and you could end up throwing money away on those types of bets waiting for a price to fall when it could equally carry on rising. I don't understand how a share can be a "buy" at £1, but a "sell" at £1.05.
Average 479p and wont be taking any more profits.
Accumulated a very nice pot for dividends going forward.
The next buy will be trading shares!
gla
Average under a fiver and already sold some, may sell some more when they go 550 or add if they fall under 490, I wont average up, only down as always keep a large tranche for chunky Dividends
Started: Market-Dealer, 27 Jun 2024 09:46
Last post: kentio, 1 Jul 2024 12:27
Your. opinion is iteresting and I also see. some uoside to the. sp but please. do not. consider the. so called analysts predictions - they knw nthing more then you and. i.
Since 2021 I have paid between 675 and 485 for PHNX so the divi has held me above water for the early buys, Hoping for 675 once interest rates fall and may offload the expensive buys
One would assume that the analysts' latest target prices would allow for some reduction in the base rate over the next 6-12 months.
M-D once the price closes above 530 following 8-9 daily consecutive higher lows indicating persistent price accumulation i.e. the train has departed from the station and is heading towards a retest towards 560 meanwhile further out consensus analysts' target price remains at 591.5 some 10% above here and potentially violating/breaking the 4 years weekly/monthly down channel resting somewhat above 567 Note also the monthly volume is above average for the past 4 consecutive months.. GLA
Why the jump today, another rumour or what??
I know the traders like lots of movement but I would prefer a steady increase. Still see this share as a win win, huge increase great to trade , if not great dividend that appears to be covered. What is not to like!!
Started: laidback, 26 Jun 2024 11:23
Last post: Stockpig, 27 Jun 2024 13:54
"With any investment, you need to look at the total return."
Yes, but over what time frame and what has happened to the underlying fundamentals of the company in that time? Income investors are usually thinking about their returns happening over a longer period and on the performance of the business. And, gyrations in stock prices can occur for a range of reasons and do not necessarily reflect the performance of the business during that period.
With any investment, you need to look at the total return.
Sure, the yield here is great. But over the past 5 years, the share price has trended lower.
If you make - say - 30% over 3 years from the dividends, but lose 30% in terms of the share price, you've actually made zilch.
**don't remind me what a pile of dog ****e this company is*
Why are you here then ? Sell and move...Very Simple !
If you paid to much for a classic car that you bought in the height why should shares be any different, you are going to lose money with both, its not rocket science
If consistently beating free cash flow forecasts is a 'dog' company please show me a 'cat' company.
Started: laidback, 26 Jun 2024 15:20
Last post: Taverham, 26 Jun 2024 16:27
As a bond proxy it does not surprise me that the sp has fallen when the bond yields are up and the market generally down. Not happy however!
Buy on rumor sell on news scenerio
Still gives me an opportunity to buy more for less moneyl..fyi
Broker ratings :-
Strong buy
3
Buy
4
Hold
4
Sell
2
Strong sell
0
Brokers
13
Average rating
Buy
Maybe they had heard of a buy out, and now it’s a small disposal - they are back to putting the shorts on.
Who knows
Down down Down again
Started: laidback, 26 Jun 2024 12:38
Last post: laidback, 26 Jun 2024 12:38
What a dog share lol
“You will recal brokers noted they lacked cash flow to cover the dividend despite stating they were undertaking a progressive growth strategy on it.”
That’s only if you believe the brokers actually understand the free cash flow numbers better than PHNX do. The Board wouldn’t have committed to a dividend strategy that - from the outset - wasn’t supported by the forecast free cash flow.
Think a good reason to sell is that they bought that business at low interest rates and can sell it at high interest rates , very handy for their insurance business.
It’ll provide capital to help investments and cover the dividend. You will recal brokers noted they lacked cash flow to cover the dividend despite stating they were undertaking a progressive growth strategy on it.
This is £5.50 as a new base, all day long given this risk reduction. IMO
There could be two reasons for the sale inmv.To either reduce debt or to make the company more streamlined to facilitate some kind of merger or sale of the entire business..
The remaining shorts can find their coats in the abandoned property locker. Please respect the neighbourhood and leave quietly.
So they acquired Sun Life UK operatoons for £248 million in 2022. Should see a spike up on news that it's now up for sale. Special dividend anyone?
Last post: Daytradenovice, 26 Jun 2024 08:11
Must say that was a surprise.
Lets hope it brings to an end all those pants cheesy 'ive had turnips every way' adverts to an end.
"I imagine the sale info was leaked the other day when we saw the flick up in share price."
So it is already priced in?
I imagine the sale info was leaked the other day when we saw the flick up in share price.
Except this sentence:
“The Board has therefore decided to begin a sale process, having received a number of initial expressions of interest from third parties”.
Strange RNS. There's no mention of any discussions with any third party. This looks a strategem to push the share price up.
Last post: Rupert79, 26 Jun 2024 07:38
I’ve never been in this position with any of my other shares and just wondered what the likely reaction will be on opening and any scenarios that might play out? Any ideas gratefully recieved
Started: 4kandles, 25 Jun 2024 10:51
Last post: AbjectPerformer, 25 Jun 2024 23:34
I own quite a decent amount of shares but haven’t considered their products.
Life ins etc worth it?
Thanks for the 2 mature responses Taverham and shb. The other poster, that self-appointed ayatollah is now filtered. Bye Bye.
I did indeed complain about the process 2 weeks ago but nothing came of it. It's always me having to chase them. I have been told that they have all the documents they need to pay out but they still make excuses and offer only apologies. At least somebody does answer the phone. I won't bore you good folks with the detail but it's pretty outrageous the way they're behaving. It's Ombudsman and invoices for statutory interest next. Hopefully that will focus their minds.
Thanks again for the 2 mature and helpful replies
GLA
4Kandles, I have had 2 policies with this company mature and each time I was paid out promptly and in full. 100% good service in my case.
As someone who works in the industry (not at Phoenix btw) it is 'unofficial' but widespread practice to stretch processes out for the full allowable working day turnaround. Indeed, one of the reasons I hold PHX is precisely this; quick on the in + slow on the out.
However, as SlowNSteady pointed out, complaints departments, even Phoenix's, are generally prompt and efficient (in my experience) and will prefer to solve your problem with a timely recompense (if due) as long as you follow the guidelines.
No need for all that. The proper way is: Make a FORMAL complaint. Wait for their FINAL response. If still unhappy... Refer to Ombudsman.
Started: Market-Dealer, 24 Jun 2024 10:19
Last post: Market-Dealer, 25 Jun 2024 23:02
Yawn !!
Shorts of 0.5 % and above have reduced to 1.21%.
You don’t know how many additional shorts below 0.5% are still in existence, nor what the total is.
Https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00BGXQNP29/
Shorting has been reduced to 1.21%
Biddy74 on ADVFN saying shorts reducing.
"GLG dropped significantly on Friday. Now down to 1.21% from 1.8%"
Won't sell less than 650p...IMHO
Started: SJN1, 21 Jun 2024 15:33
Last post: PanamaPete, 24 Jun 2024 21:41
Riskingit, four years of dividends is very short sighted imo.
650p would be daylight robbery.
Expect to see other shorts heading for the exit.
If this is a precursor to an offer, the recent Tory bets on the election date would pale into insignificance.
Pete - think you'll find a lot of PI's would be more than happy with 650 (me included😂)
A decent capital gain and c. 4 years of fat dividends does it for me
No offer under 850p (6% yield) would be worth considering.
I suggest that shorts are reducing with interest rates lowering.
Punters who did sell last week they are either kicking themselves or trying to get back in this week.
As they say, Penny Wise Pounds fool....IMHO
Good Morning All
Large volume does not just occur for no reason
Someone is coughing up large amounts of capital
I think something is afoot and got leaked out
Door
GL All
Last post: Roofer61, 24 Jun 2024 12:23
Oldbrian , in a forever changing landscape every strategy has its pro's and cons , I prefer the casual approach buy and sell in tranches never in lumps, but with a slight twist all profits kept in shares, just sold a few more ..atb
Sitting on the fence methodology
This share is always going to trade in large range because of its dividend. If you trade with luck you can make some money. However if you hold you have the dividend which appears safe and the prospect of a takeover.
I don't personally think one is going to happen shortly, something would have leaked over the weekend or early today.(happy to proved wrong)
Either way a WIN WIN
Started: Rothers, 24 Jun 2024 10:34
Last post: nicknaim, 24 Jun 2024 10:56
Last week I did warn everyone last chance to buy under 490, steady upto 550 now
May those that didn't buy under a fiver be eternally locked out 😐.
I thought there might be a retrace this morning. Glad there isn’t SP +8.5% in a week but still down 1.8% for the year to date. IMHO this a great investment for the yield, but don’t understand why it’s not trading closer to at least £6 which would still be a yield of almost 9%. The next few months will be interesting to watch. I’m happy to hold for the dividend whatever occurs but a takeover seems unlikely to me. Every now and then the market just spots a company that is undervalued. This must be particularly so for a company yielding over 10% when interest rates are expected to fall especially when that company is likely to benefit from lower interest rates…
Started: Riomaster, 24 Jun 2024 09:19
Last post: sparhawk, 24 Jun 2024 10:11
Hmm, it's not really popping, which is what i would expect if a takeover was imminent just moving higher with the market, be interesting to see if the price picks up when the Dow Jones opens
Well actually a win would have not to have sold any and have a bigger overall return, but hey, each to their own :)
Showing blue so somethings looking good, I only sold a third of my holding Friday as a precaution but on a positive side I've averaged my other 2/3 down. definitely holding from here with an average of around 11% yield, win win situation from here.
Quarterly volume is 250% above average @144m compared with 62m this is relentless accumulation if the SP closes above 539 this 'bird' could spread its wings a lot further IMOO GLA
What research?
Started: richie1132, 23 Jun 2024 08:32
Last post: Svend, 23 Jun 2024 17:44
Maybe someone is quietly building a large holding, spreading the purchases out over several months would make it less obvious.
There was a similar spike up in price and volume on Friday 3 May, which was not quarterly opex. The price then faded in subsequent days. Hence I sold a few on Friday, hopefully buy back below 500 before next dividend.
Gary
If the average is between 2m and 4m then 14.3m is significant as it is more than 400% above the average anyways time will tell if this accumulation is done for now or if there is still more buying to come...
Excellent Corey, thanks. Have lost count of the number of times I've had to explain this and UT volumes to unknowledgeable posters.
Svend - Fridays "volume spike" of 14.3m is not necessarily significant.
Similar trends occurred with PHNX recently, on Friday 3 May (13.5m) and Friday 31 May (16.1m) - note both were Fridays.
In both cases daily volume returned to the average of between 2m and 4m during the following week & the SP declined.
Do we sell & hope the SP declines again or hold on & hope?
Whatever I decide to do I suggest everyone else does the opposite, ha!
Started: b-w-f, 22 Jun 2024 14:26
Last post: upomega, 23 Jun 2024 05:50
I purchased some shares a couple of days before the rise. Thats why it went up. Either that or some spiv reduced its short position . Hopefully many of them will unwind their shorts in lots of small britains compananies, Which i hasten to add is faciliated by large pension funds loaning shares out to enable them to short in the first place.
There was a big uncrossing trade 36 million
There was an unsubstantiated rumour about a takeover bid.
Anybody know why there was a sudden increase of 17p at 3:20 Friday?
Started: Seedcorn, 20 Jun 2024 07:56
Last post: SurreyCarrie, 22 Jun 2024 10:37
These are 3 “black box” stocks paying huge dividends but the underlying business models, actuaries excepted, are opaque and difficult to understand. Hence the sustainability of the dividend payouts and exogenous risks to them is difficult to assess. Key comfort is they are regulated by the PRA and must prove they can survive “black swan” events in financial markets, as explained in their annual reports. The biggest negative is their UK focus, the UK seen by international investors as a no-growth Brexit backwater.
I think IMO the main reason for these type of stocks like PHNX, LGEN, MNG etc being under valued is most investors don't understand the new IFRS 9 & 17 accounting rules. IFRS 17 accounting really skews the EPS hence the P/E figures and actually makes them look over priced rather than under priced.
Hi Olderandwiser, you raise a good point. I hold both plus M&G. I feel all three are sound businesses and have longer term potential. They are in the right space for continued growth I feel, and if we are talking about the SP then it must be in the context of the under pricing of many UK FTSE 100 shares in my humble opinion. Look at the progress that JXN has made in the US. Could it be replicated here? With Phoenix I have experience of using them as a customer over many years and their customer focus is rubbish. They just cannot get anything right and are so frustrating to deal with. I think they are aware of that poor performance and are trying to put matters right recently - but tankers take a long time to turn around! Have a good day.
Started: Market-Dealer, 17 Jun 2024 08:32
Last post: Temple_of_Doom, 21 Jun 2024 15:41
Now we know why PIs invest in the likes of Phoenix Group Holdings .... cuz it's fun when the "Professionals get squeezed".
Taken profits.
Thanks "Professionals" - Do come again.
"Why do PIs focus obsessively on the super high dividend yield of these UK insurers - Phnx and Lgen in particular - when a cursory glance shows that Total Returns have been negative over a multi year period, during which time even an indexed fund would have been a better choice?"
By and large, I don't think they do. Although as primarily income investors they are naturally going to be focused on the income the shares provide. However, the impact over the short term is likely being discounted because they are planning to hold for a very long-term during which they believe the fluctuation in share prices will either have little impact, balance out or improve in favour of the investor (after all past performance is not a guarantee as to how investments will perform in the future). With a solid, growing company, throwing off lots of cash to shareholders the big risk for an investor from the falling share price is probably the risk of a forced sale capitalising those paper losses. On the other hand Falling share prices may provide an opportunity to buy more shares at a level you believe offers value.
In short, I think it is fair to say that there are a variety of reasons why insurance company share prices have been hit over the last 4-5 years and visible drivers that may (or may not!) lead to some rise in prices going forwards. Discussions around Total Return should take those both into account.
O&W because if you catch the bottom of the channel and get it right you can have both! Then sell the top or hold for yield.
Trek
RNS on refinancing is good news imv. Yes paying a rate of 8.5% on the new debt looks a bit pricey BUT it is much cheaper than paying the divi to shareholders! At some point soon the sp will be over £5 imv.
Why do PIs focus obsessively on the super high dividend yield of these UK insurers - Phnx and Lgen in particular - when a cursory glance shows that Total Returns have been negative over a multi year period, during which time even an indexed fund would have been a better choice?
Last post: deepjoy, 21 Jun 2024 15:35
Rumours where?
More rumours of a takeover for PHNX causing a spike to the share price. Let's see if anything comes of this one.
Started: JPDM, 20 Jun 2024 16:17
Last post: Alessandro, 21 Jun 2024 09:02
Thanks Riomaster!
Alessandro,
Because of the IFRS 9 accounting rules. read this link .
https://www.ifrs.org/issued-standards/list-of-standards/ifrs-9-financial-instruments/
Why the assets under administration fell so dramatically in 2023?
If interest rates start to come down quickly, £5.40 is conservative. They were £6.50 in Feb 22, and then base rate started to rise
Afternoon Ladies n Gents
Firstly a thank you to those posting their thoughts and views, my comfort area is historically the oil sector however..... 11% Yield and hopefully interest rate cut coming in August and thereafter has finally tempted me to add this to my ISA yesterday at 487p and targeting a 12 month price of 540p a share.
Good luck to all and kind regards
JPDM
If you use DMA to trade you then realise what nonsense the bought and sold figures shown here are. Every trade is a buy and a sell. I usually buy on the bid so when you sell you do so against my bid. your sell is my buy, And vice versa.
Fwiw trade prices shown on this bb together with some other platforms can be a little misleading. For example an agency cross may have occured. Or in the majority of cases the price achieved for a purchase or sale may have fallen in between the spread. Which unfortunatly can be recorded as a sale when in fact it may have been a purchase. Also this is sets traded so in terms of reporting the trade by a platform such as this can be misleading.
Another excellent day for UK Treasuries. The yield continues to fall as prices rise. Sooner or later Pheonix will adjust accordingly. A nice twenty five basis point cut will propel us inmo.
This is why the big companies are leaving the uk market to trade on the NYSE.
Every trade is a buy and a sell. Price depends on what level buyers and sellers are prepared to trade at. The buy/sell stats shown here are irrelevant and misleading.
Started: TrekMadone, 15 Jun 2024 07:14
Last post: Swatton, 15 Jun 2024 10:27
Thanks Trek
The detail is here,
http://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/5723E_1-2023-6-30.pdf
It’s new money for general working purposes page 260.
The additional notes that weren’t filled were contingency a lower tier (CoCo).
Every so often insurers come to market to raise funds to cover their liabilities and operations which pay interest and are backed by assets.
So as they take on more books they need more cover. These run for 5 years.
Usual caveats
Trek
I don't fully understand what Phoenix have done here. Have they just issued new debt to pay off an existing debt that was due to expire? If so I guess the problem is that the interest rates is higher on the debt they have just issued? A simple explanation would be good if someone can provide one.
Trek .
I think this is whare the problem is in terms of attracting investors .. Inmo. Pheonix is a extremly well run company, but unfortunatly relies on debt to carry its business moduel. So in fairness to Jp morgan they have a point, but inmo once interest rates are lowered then things will change rapidly.
The problem we have is that the us is expanding rapidly due to technology so they do not need to lower interest rates,Unfortunatly we are a basket case of a country which inmo will only get worse after the election. onmo by the way and no ones elses.
This is the easiest explanation I can find. But not sure how being slightly short leaves PHNX. As its replacement I assume the outstanding $350m remains on older terms.
https://www.hymans.co.uk/insights/blogs/blog/restricted-tier-1-issuances-and-other-forms-of-contingent-capital-under-solvency-ii/
Usual caveats
Trek
Last post: DramChart, 14 Jun 2024 16:10
Yep. Topped up just below 480.
I cannot believe I got this under 480 just then ..wow...
I am loading up more at these prices... alongside other financials
It's bad enough the SP tumbling but worse still it will bring the serial nutter Porch out of his hole
Started: Divihunter112, 10 Jun 2024 12:38
Last post: oldbrian, 13 Jun 2024 10:29
...and back down again today!!
I too am hoping to top up around 480 - I've been waiting since mid-May when the SP breached 520.
Nice little recovery today.
Kerching
Delta appears to be almost suggesting it’s “terminal” - 🤭
Wow Delta such insight. Thanks for your wisdom.