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Have added few more @ £4.8228, not big trade, but will carry on adding
In drips as long as the sp below my current average...current average £4.94
Every time I buy the sp slides, probably my next buy(s) will push the sp to sub 450p....lol
Not worried as long as my next purchases will be below my current average.
Hold about 1500 shares now with the aim to make the total holding around 6k-7k shares.
I am Here for the divi and probably a take-over etccc..IMHO-DYOR
I've held Phoenix for 3 years and 'little brother' Chesnara for 15 (19consecutive years of increasing divis) - and the results and dividends only ever go higher!
I'm happy to hold for the bird in hand dividends rather than over inflated US shares whatever it seems i'm missing!!
@CJ66 - 3 year total returns: PHNX - 11% (yes that is negative) - S&P500 + 31% - this is what you have missed. Forget the emotion: just look at the numbers.
AceOfClubs
Ace - Your response is a little bit mis-leading.
My average SP is around 523 having bought as high as 570 & 590 and as low as 450 and 460.
My capital loss is c. 7% which is easily covered by dividends and I hope will turn positive once the inflation scourge is behind us
Also it's the next 3 years that count
@riskingit - Check for yourself the numbers don't lie
@lardomorp - The divergence in performance has a decades long history - I can't see that changing - can you?
AceOfClubs
Didnt take long to get back to normal
I may not make much by selling right now but if I hold ive got a wacking great big divi heading toward my isa late summer
Last chance to load up under 490, get em while you can
Ace - no doubt if you take one moment in time and buy then hold without adding, the numbers look bang on.
But a lot of investors (myself included) will buy in tranches.
Risk
Ace, you could very well be right, however I feel the s&p could be a bit of a bubble and ftse over sold and an inflection point may be on the cards. As WB said be "fearful when others greedy be greedy when others fearful." I just think s&p high because of greed and investors scared of ftse for reasons which don't bear scrutiny.
Gla
The sp may dip but it won’t crash . And if it does crash we won’t go up . We never do without them.
More likely is the sp will plateau and we will carry on slowly going up to a ftse 100 of 8700 points within 12 months
Isn’t the idea of being contrarian to be, well, contrarian?
I think buyers in here certainly below 5 have timed it pretty well whilst the maddening crowd await more data!
“ Threadneedle Street is expected to maintain UK bank rate at the 16-year high of 5.25% for the seventh-successive meeting on Thursday. It announces the rate decision at midday. Unlike the upcoming meeting in August, Thursday's decision will not be accompanied by a monetary policy report with economic projections, nor a press conference with Governor Andrew Bailey.
For those hoping for a summer rate cut, August, and not the June meeting, is likely to be the best bet.
For the first time since July 2021, inflation returned to target, numbers on Wednesday showed.
According to the Office for National Statistics, the rate of yearly consumer price growth faded to 2.0% in May, from 2.3% in April. The reading was in-line with the FXStreet cited consensus.”
(Alliance news)
Still it’s nice to get +10% yield tax free and still have an average in the blue whilst we wait. Black swans aside PHNX and likes of MNG will imo soon move back to the mid points of their long term trading range and continue to hike their dividends.
There is also a huge upside in AI to come in this space (as mentioned by a bod member here, I posted a while back).
Chatbot’s are now putting keyboard to paper like at DLG and beating the human experience. Where there is human to computer intervention at scale the savings could be huge, and it’s not far off!
But don’t worry there will be plenty of other work for folk to do doing other stuff!
And we have both MNG and PHNX getting their senior notes away recently.
And PHNX delivering their business plan two years in advance and a beat!
Then the GE will be over in a blink removing some uncertainty.
Then if the SP’s don’t catch up to the wider index soon a takeover is very likely. It will only take one in the sector. It’s ripe for consolidation which is really just a lift and shift. After all, have we not done it!
Perhaps now an investment here is no longer as contrarian. The data is there in sufficient quantity for those that look and read it in a wider context. For sure we could go to 440 first of back to 540.
As always timing is everything, hence averaging or out for that matter and en trading the edges can help.
That goes for sell side and buy side.
But now imo it’s buy time with many uk insurers.
Sorry for those that are stuck in at the highs. It’s the same here as elsewhere (like at DEC Ace) but that’s just how it is.
Hold and hug isn’t always the best plan. Then saying how sht the sp has been. Well we know that and those that figured it out may have sold and bought cheaper, are putting in new money, or are happy to hold with a long term view and re-invest their divi’s.
There are few that really think the numbers here point to a huge divi cut. On the contrary, there’s that w
… that word again, …. There is a view that the divi may go up! Especially if the SP recovers!
Usual caveats
Trek
Why do PIs focus obsessively on the super high dividend yield of these UK insurers - Phnx and Lgen in particular - when a cursory glance shows that Total Returns have been negative over a multi year period, during which time even an indexed fund would have been a better choice?
RNS on refinancing is good news imv. Yes paying a rate of 8.5% on the new debt looks a bit pricey BUT it is much cheaper than paying the divi to shareholders! At some point soon the sp will be over £5 imv.
O&W because if you catch the bottom of the channel and get it right you can have both! Then sell the top or hold for yield.
Trek
"Why do PIs focus obsessively on the super high dividend yield of these UK insurers - Phnx and Lgen in particular - when a cursory glance shows that Total Returns have been negative over a multi year period, during which time even an indexed fund would have been a better choice?"
By and large, I don't think they do. Although as primarily income investors they are naturally going to be focused on the income the shares provide. However, the impact over the short term is likely being discounted because they are planning to hold for a very long-term during which they believe the fluctuation in share prices will either have little impact, balance out or improve in favour of the investor (after all past performance is not a guarantee as to how investments will perform in the future). With a solid, growing company, throwing off lots of cash to shareholders the big risk for an investor from the falling share price is probably the risk of a forced sale capitalising those paper losses. On the other hand Falling share prices may provide an opportunity to buy more shares at a level you believe offers value.
In short, I think it is fair to say that there are a variety of reasons why insurance company share prices have been hit over the last 4-5 years and visible drivers that may (or may not!) lead to some rise in prices going forwards. Discussions around Total Return should take those both into account.
Now we know why PIs invest in the likes of Phoenix Group Holdings .... cuz it's fun when the "Professionals get squeezed".
Taken profits.
Thanks "Professionals" - Do come again.