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No dilution, no dilution, no dilution.... oh... hang on, heres some dilution.
Seems a measured amount, but i dont think the timing is great. If we managed to wait until the letter of arbitration was in, i think we would have diluted less...
Ah well... tis what it is... next news really needs to be positive steps on bhukia for me.
Pk.
I think CEO never said no placing. Just that he understands the impact ( hence looking at strategic options).
I read your observation as he knows it is better to raise after MOA. So there must have been a very good reason foe not doing this.
Not sure therefore the placing is negative!
Roger that @gallmat, and thx for taking the time to respond.
I think the ceo certainly knows what he is doing, and appreciate it is a small raise in the grand scheme. I suspect he has timescales in his mind that he’s working to and this was the minimum he felt he could get away with..
Good luck this pm @prof. I know you have been speaking on positive terms with mark for a good while and please share any info that comes from your call… at least you know now why he was too busy on Friday!
No prob pk.
Time for me to mentally "move on" :). Attempt no 2!
Seems a strange time to be raising funds when there are 2 drivers which should materially affect the SP on the plus side and provide less dilution. Announcing arbitration claim is one, and announcing a claim value is another. They clearly don't think they can do either at this moment in time which suggests to me they were either desperate for cash, or they are in dialogue with India and think there could be a positive outcome. We shall see. I did 1 final top-up on the drop, but due to the spread couldn't get near the 5.25 price. If we don't get any sort of positive update in the next month I think PAT need to submit the NoA as it's just delaying the inevitable.
Jmuk
Clearly the waiting ( not releasing value drivers) had more value than the dilution. For what reason who knows?
Anyway now we are funded we can continue to waiting for whatever was positive. The cost of the wait has now been paid?
Seriously with India it could be anything, that is why we are here!
i am sure the ceo would rather be out exploring. this must be a complete pain in the ****!
managing legal firms, dealing with indian bureaucracy, explaining to your contacts who want to dig about legal arguments.
i have been here 3 months and already going a bit bonkers!. accepting we do not know the whole story is the hard bit here
Possibly Gallmat, but I'm struggling to see what that reason could be. Lets hope it becomes clearer in the coming months. If nothing happens, it might just be management raising to keep themselves busy which is worst case scenario from a dilutionary perspective unless they use that money very wisely. Ideally, I'd prefer to cut costs of PAT to the bone for now, and focus on exploration when the SP is higher and funding more easily achievable.
The delay is puzzling to me too. I assumed LCM would be driving the process and it would be an unemotional decision as to when to file. I was frustrated first thing today as I feel any placing price below the 8.5p that shares opened on the day of the LCM funding is simply too cheap - Mark said the same last August
However, the interesting point is that whoever participated in the December placing at 5p has had no chance to flip their shares & yet they managed to raise a slightly larger amount at a 10% premium. This suggests there is solid demand for PAT shares & that the buyers may in fact be in for the long haul.
My ideal scenario from here is them selling Kalaka / the West African assets for £5m+ which re-rates the shares and removes any near term funding requirement.
Lets see what happens...
The company is raising cash because lcm only cover legal costs.
The CEO knows clearly that dilution from exploring is bad. If he does spend it will be to get a JV
I do not expect that we can guess the reason for the delay but there will be one. In this process we will need to trust, which i think will be the challenge.
Realistically this cannot drag on with no MOA for 3 months, and the people who did put in cash clearly must have view something ok is going on
If indeed this is the last raise as funds are going to be in bound..let's just say from Kalaka..then this could definitely mean buyer are in for the long haul.
No red flags for me just yet due to election.
However, if we are 2 months down the line i will have an issue if we are not at next stage.
We have taken the pain, now hold for the gain :)
Thinking what Shearclass said..'strange no rns on the auction'.
Never really thought about that, but an excellent observation.
Only thing I can think of ..discussions going on behind the scenes & pat not wanting to ruffle feathers
I am not sure why we would comment on the auction when we are not in the inner circle. Anything other than a public result is chinese whispers and its not good to do that and get it wrong ( credibility)
I still think the auction focus is a bit misplaced, our asset was stolen in 2021, it might be interesting to monitor to see if it triggers some engagement. But if it drags on i expect we will not wait for ever.
We probably just waited to monitor it and sadly the elections made that drag on
Good morning everyone and all very good points
Will do a summary of what Mark mentioned yesterday as soon as I am free later today - all good in my view
Professor.
Very much appreciated
In no particular order:
1) Cash raised - are we going to use some towards North Kalaka?
-Only very little. The goal is to be cash flow positive. There will be an update on the progress on the restructuring of the West Africa assets in the course of next few weeks.
2) Any planning on the Shareholder presentation any time soon? / Near term drivers
-a) There is going to be something released next Monday
-b) There will also be release of the information on activities in the next two weeks - AT LEAST AN RNS
3) How long will it be before we give GOI a Notice of Arbitration?
-We are read, legally, to issue one. ONLY MB is holding it up due to PERIOD OF ENGAGEMENT. So it is the judgement of MB when to exercise it. The moment he feels that this is now going to be a waste of his time then the notice will be issued immediately.
4) Will the auction selling price have any bearing on the our claim size AND (B) do we have any fair value in mind and (C) will FV be included in the claim letter
[NEED TO RUSH NOW SO WILL WRITE AT LUNCH]
I suspect they are still waiting for the auction result as it will dictate the amount they want to claim and how they approach the case. It is highly likely that the auction will not fetch fair value for the asset because of the circumstances. Which company is realistically going to pay top dollar for a stolen asset which could be subject to legal action and attention for years to come? A low ball offer will probably be all they get. On the flip side, if it does miraculously sell for more than PAT anticipated claiming for, then they will still argue that the fair price was not achieved and claim even more. I can see why they are waiting, but I think they need to limit the timescales now.
The reasons you highlight is why i think auction is not that important.
A) it is asset with legal claim against it. Our valuation will assume.no issue with asset
B) only local companies, we can argue a major ( non indian ) company would like to bid
C) prices in bidding are based as of today, whereas we need to look at time of expropriation
Hopefully prof has more on this, but my view is the auction is not the golden goose and more a ready herring.
Thanks Prof. Looking forward to seeing the rest of your message and the release on Monday.
Based on what Prof has said, I agree with Gall that I don't think the auction result in terms of sale value is the main thing here. I think PAT's doing 2 things:
- providing reasonable time for the Minister for Mines in this new government to respond.
- waiting for the auction to at least commence (but probably conclude), providing clear proof that further dialogue is pointless.
The silver lining here is that once the claim is released then it will just be a nice sit back and forget.
This is def the worst bit of holding the stock
@ Gallmat..that's assuming 'period of engagement' is not fruitful.
True :)
I always look for blue sky stocks and then try and find the rain clouds.
Always looking at worst case scenario. I feel there has to be a reason for the delay, but these things positive things can always ( and often do) fail.
Good prof had a chat, and some comms should help alot
My apologies, am running late. So catch up in the evening with the rest of the points