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Results make for grim reading. Poor sales, extremely high cash burn, incompetent leadership and statement surrounding the uncertainty of the company being a going concern.
Approximately 250 CiRT tests ordered since January, so circa 50 a month. Slightly better for PSE tests with circa 62 ordered per month. But pretty poor overall, not surprising though, considering the lack of actual large scale clinical trials.
Expect a large dilutive placing late 2024/early 2025. The company themselves state that "the Board has concluded (as it did in the annual reports for the years ended 30 September 2022 and 30 September 2023) that there continues to be a material uncertainty which may cast significant doubt on the Group's ability to continue as a going concern." I.e. They do not believe there is enough cash to sustain the business for the next year.
I did warn on the previous raise, and not another is coming shortly. Not looking good unfortunately.
"Approximately 250 CiRT tests ordered since January, so circa 50 a month. Slightly better for PSE tests with circa 62 ordered per month."
Thinking about it, I could've stood outside my local Surgery and sold MORE of these tests per month to passers-by than this lot have managed with ALL their fundraises......Seriously!
Oh no you wouldn't have, not at the prices they want for something which remains unvalidated by any national health bodies.
Burrows is so stoopid it's not funny any more.
Validate your tests, then sell them. Not the other way around because it just won't happen
Buying a chunk at 5.2p has been fruitful so far, u really don't see it going south of that so each day, each cent up is eating into my loss, if this hit 8 to 9p I will be happy to have recovered enough to make it feel at least respectable loss. And in the mean time, maybe pray 🙏 that some thing out of knowwhere in terms of contracts or deals presents itself, either way I'm in a better position today than I was yesterday as a result
Thought about doing the same but nuts to it, this is just like a slow death spiral. Huge loss but so be it. Going to plonk the few 1000s I got into something like i3e, ukw etc. maybe even sqz (if it survives the impending labour govt. ) All high divis and just has to be better than obd. Really peed off about how I feel I have been conned by you know who.
I see it differently, albeit the buck does fall with the board and the burrows, I hold myself to blame for ignoring the risks presented, in place of excited about the science. And investing with that mindset
I don't disagree, I made the decision to buy in the first place, but did reckon a lot to what appeared to be the science and potential. I was even stupid enough to buy more at around 15p when it dropped from the highs because I still had belief. My age I should have known better.
Fang we are pretty much all in the same boat.
Hope seems to be the only thing left as with the majority of Aim shares. Hoping they'll announce some kind of advanced talks in regards to a partner or allude to it at least
There are some good bits in there, Things do seem to moving on with PSE.
PSE test 274 since the March Update (Feb Numbers) average of around 70 a month divided by the 4 months but clearly on an upward direction as 40 month in Jan so should be pushing around the 100 a month, and new deals have only just come online..
Cirt Flat - but the oborading of the healthCare group is very good news. NHS Cirt Trail is a bit of a carrot, but could be very benficial - nothing on BUPA is dissapointing.
Real cash use is about 2 million a qtr, but there is some traction growing - they will certainly need funding but not till March 25 earliest - What price will 100%depend on the tracition made between now and xmas - PSE is now becoming the focus of ST reveune growth
The 'deals' are all too often nothing more than agreements that episwitch tests may be offered to patients if deemed appropriate.
Shortly after the fanfare of the BUPA 'deal' came the news of a series of seminars that were to be held to build awareness with BUPA contracted doctors. A bit like the CiRT workshops that were held in the USA that failed to generate meaningful sales.
When considering the commercialisation efforts odf OBD my advice would be not to confuse initiatives such as non-binding joint venture agreements with legally enforceable sales contracts.
From ADVFN poster - Discuss
This just doesnt stack as a future viable business, 53 staff in situ paid £2.978m gross ie an average annualised salary of £112,000 & £6m pa in total (R&D is extra!), plus annualised normal admin costs excluding exceptionals £4.4m ie £10m+
12,000 pse target @ £750 ie £9m sales @ 40% margin taken from those accounts ie £3.6m gross profit before admin costs. Add CiRT fwiw.
This can only end with a bigger biotech picking up the IP & shareholders shafted
fang once the ******* truly dropped i just didn't bother buying more, resisted all this time for this time to come, so i could take a sledgehammer to my average. i'm pretty happy with it today, from 5.2 to 6.4p it's recuperating a decent amount each movement. obviously it dips i'll sell and won't accrue more losses from new buy, but if a little rally takes form edging up to the new 12p avg, i may get out of this with a good chunk to invest elsewhere
Wish you luck Dusty.
Broker Coverage today:
Financial performance muted for now: OBD is still relatively early in implementing its plans to maximise the commercial potential of the EpiSwitch platform and we believe that efforts have been highly creditable given current resources. Revenues of £0.33m remain modest although we note that revenues continue to lag sales particularly with CiRT, where the majority of sales are reimbursed by US insurers. Growing sales of PSE should help redress the balance given that 19% of orders are currently cash based and the expectation is that this will increase. For the future, the sheer size and opportunity of the PSE test once successfully commercialised is the key to supporting future financial independence of the company and the company achieves its 1000 tests per month objective. Inevitably, the increased activity generally with increased lab space and additional (more experienced) sales hires as OBD seeks to optimise its commercial business model has led to increased costs and an operating loss of £6.0m. We note that the company bolstered its cash resources by raising £9.9m gross in March 2024 and we look forward to the potential for the company to secure partners for the canine cancer (EpiSwitch SCB) and colorectal cancer (EpiSwitch NST) programmes which could boost cash resources. House Stock
Unfortunately Dusty, this is extremely unlikely to hit 12p any time soon, if ever. While there has been a little recovery after the initial large drop this morning, I expect the overall trend over the next few weeks/months to continue downwards. The Bod have outlined the need for additional funding within the next year and with the share price likely to drift lower and lower, any raise would be highly dilutive, if they can get a placing away at all.
Sales of the test kits has been, at best, pitiful. Cash burn is crazy given where the company is, and talk of any 'deals' was pure fluff designed to get the placing away as I said at the time. Look at the Bupa deal, hardly had any effect on sales or the share price. Also look at the post from ADVFN on reaching the target of 1000 tests per month, even doing so OBD will still be haemorrhaging significant amounts of cash, they need thousands of sales per month to merely break even.
To see any sustained rise in the share price, significant positive news would have to be released, and given where the company are, this is extremely unlikely. Sales would need to increase ten-fold as a minimum or a large pharma licencing deal struck with actual financial payments. Also note the broker report published below, pretty bleak outlook for a house broker who are usually overly optimistic.
Clearly OBD can't fund itself in the near term via sales, so it's all about spending cash raised to keep the business alive, pretty shocking really. Burn rate is frightening and means another cash raise will be needed before year end imo
Sorry you miss my meaning, my avg is 12p now, from 32p, buying low 5.2p.
All I'm looking for us for it to eat into that loss short term so I can get out recuperate as much as possible