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Price is gonna rocket back up IMO
Institutional Investors are buying big time as they smell a bargain
£91 million transaction last evening :
30-May-24 16:35:04 843.00 10,786,317 Buy* 836.80 837.20 91m
Bigbadbaz
Thanks, yes...
looking at that ...the 938m extra shares added to the WAV of 3.7bn is plus 25% ...so... in realistic terms ... the DIV could be a static rebase to around 43.5p and if an added inflation element added as they suggest ... yes ..around 45p seems about right ...which would give a 5.1% yield @829p
thanks
Topcat
It’s a really complicated situation,I would assume that if you don’t get the rights,surely you would be entitled to the equivalent of the price of someone selling the rights for you, otherwise no one will hold ADRs of British companies (not even Americans ).
It’s another thing NG maybe should have covered better
Thanks meoryou. That sort of text I have seen before, I thought it was there to comply with US legislation not allowing foreign shares to be offered to US residents. I'm UK resident and hold NGG ADRs in my SIPP (to trade at times without SDRT).
Google says the price of NGG ADRs and NG shares have tracked perfectly (they always do in my experience), to me this suggests the ADRs do have an entitlement to the rights issue. I have also found a spreadsheet from BNY Mellon (the ADR administrators) that suggests a rights distribution on 27th May 2010.
Keen to know one way or the other, as I also hold SHEL ADRs. I always believed Are these are securities backed by NG shares held by BNY - they pay dividends.
I think that 30% dilution isn't correct. If the pre-rights SP was 1128, then the diluted SP should be 1018.94. The actual dilution is under 10%, but of course the SP has fallen a lot lower now, unfortunately.
'Even with the DIV rebase of say 15% to 49p that still gives a yield of 5.9%
Rebased price is 45.34p
"The NAV on the books is 807p/share so at 829p that doesn't even add the value of the earnings and DIV ...so..like others I saw that as a good price ...Even with the DIV rebase of say 15% to 49p that still gives a yield of 5.9% "
I will now review all that in terms of the affects of the new shares being added to then see what that gives post new shares becoming listed ...
I bought yesterday at 829p as others did too....
The NAV on the books is 807p/share so at 829p that doesn't even add the value of the earnings and DIV ...so..like others I saw that as a good price ...
Even with the DIV rebase of say 15% to 49p that still gives a yield of 5.9%
I t seemed inevitable that the Right price would rebound once value was there .....
In areas like New York state and other parts of the US the infrastructure investment has been woefully short and it is now catch up time , with consumers having to realise what that means .... elec prices havent even kept up with inflation over many years so need to rise .... time to decide what is important...energy supply or fanciful consumer goods
just my opinion ..no investment advice
SUFC 'If pre Rights Issue to share prices was around 1000p mark, personally I cannot see me investing here as, I must add the 30% dilution i'' The pre rights sp was 1128p
Johnpwh was right. Jefferies' new TP isn't a downgrade, but it's just the result of dilution after the rights issue.
Anyway, good to see NG's SP starts to rebound after many down days. Long may this continue for I have topped up three times all the way down and I have just broke even. So, I am a bit happier now.
Also the underwriters are allowed, encouraged to support the price of fully paid, nil paid etc during the process.
This may be the reason for today’s move, underwriters shoring up the price. They of course will sell and buy to achieve their aims of keeping the price reasonably stable.
Thanks
As they say
Every days a school day ....lol
Regards underwriters they cannot just dump stock on the market, there will be a lock-in period of circa 3-6 months. This is what they get paid for.
You’re wrong.
Jeffries has 'reduced' their target from 1330p, set in April, to 1150p while retaining a 'buy' rating.
That is not a reduction, because x rights I calc (I think correctly) that 1330p equates to 1175p.
Feel free to tell me I'm wrong
Ted, Thanks for the correction
I just was saying the any shares not taken up under the right issue are sold on the open Market buy the underwriters.
Good to see the share rise today for holders.
I was only looking to buy in around the Rights issue prices as I am trying to re- build a my share Portfolio , looking at todays price 866p I see no Capital gains for new investors
If pre Rights Issue to share prices was around 1000p mark, personally I cannot see me investing here as, I must add the 30% dilution into consideration. after the Rights issue IMHO 700p is new 1000p old money.
I am happy to stay in cash for a few months and wait for better prices on the FTSE 100 stocks
They say 7 days in polities is long time, well; they should buy shares .
Good luck all :-) I wish you all well
The rights that are not taken up are automatically sold and the value of them is returned to the shareholders NOT the underwriters.
If the price is below the issue price, the rights are not exercised and the share not taken up are bought by the UW at the issue price. In that case, the UW would take a loss.
REGARDLESS - they get the £130M fees.
Why pay such a fee for such a deeply discounted issue is an issue for debate.
From what I see it’s not available in US
First link lets you select country
https://www.nationalgrid.com/gridforgrowth/location
Second link suggests you reside in US,but also says
“ Any securities referred to in these materials have not been and will not be registered under the Securities Act or under the securities laws of any state or other jurisdiction of the United States and may not be offered, sold or delivered, directly or indirectly, in or into the United States except pursuant to an exemption from, or in a transaction not subject to, the registration requirements of the Securities Act and in compliance with any applicable securities laws of any state or other jurisdiction of the United States. There will be no public offer of securities in the United States. “
https://www.nationalgrid.com/gridforgrowth/rights-issue/us-disclaimer
I’m not an expert, ( far from it), but I’m assuming it’s a case of not registered for offer in US.
‘No risk”. Depends on what you mean by risk and what your tax situation is. In real terms, for higher rate taxpayers it is not a risk because it is a certainty you will lose purchasing power with cash. 5% gross converts to to 3% net after tax at 40% minus current RPI inflation rate at 3.3% leads to a loss of purchasing power of 0.3%. And with the higher inflation over the last 2 years holding cash has been wealth destroying. NG dividends at least increase by CPIH, and are taxed at ca32% rather than 40% - and there is some possibility of a capital gain taxed at 20%.
Interactive Investor tell me "Unfortunately ADR holders are not eligible to participate in rights issues. As such, our custodian has not informed me of it". This seems unlikely to me, and the ADR price has tracked the share price exactly in the last week.
Anybody with knowledge or information either way?
Although divi has to come off next week. Well done for those who bought over the last few days to get divi.
Anyone know why a bunch of Off Book trades went through at the Rights Issue price, after the close last night?
Date Time Trade Prc Volume Buy/Sell Bid Ask Value
30-May-24 19:08:18 645.00 3,072 Unknown* 836.80 837.20 19.81k O
30-May-24 19:08:18 645.00 3,072 Unknown* 836.80 837.20 19.81k O
30-May-24 19:08:18 645.00 150,010 Unknown* 836.80 837.20 967.56k O
30-May-24 19:08:18 645.00 150,010 Unknown* 836.80 837.20 967.56k O
30-May-24 19:08:18 645.00 63,866 Unknown* 836.80 837.20 411.94k
After hours price equivalent o £9.25 p per share
And you can get 5% in a bank with no risk. Hmmm.