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Has the increase to 0.8%, on the 3rd June, only just shown today? I didn't notice it earlier.
The declared short position arose after passing 0.5%. I therefore suspect that initial short positions were taken earlier in May. The only real foul up was the last position they added to on 31 May as they tried to encourage the share to go lower that took them from x% below 0.5% holding to where they sit above it. At some point they need to buy all those shares back and yes they have to pay whoever they borrowed the shares from 39.12p divi. Tony
Norb
If you were not a shareholder on the 24th May then you are not entitled to rights issue shares at 645p per share.
"so it’s only an additional £30 bln."
It's still £60 Billion over 5 years, or £8 Billion a year in Capex, it's a lot of cash.
NG say "We expect our Electricity Distribution network to invest around £8 billion over the five years to 2028/29 in asset replacement, reinforcement and new connections, facilitating the infrastructure for electric vehicles, heat pumps and directly connected generation"
Reading that I think they're assuming there'll be an increase in demand, due to a move from ICE to EV, and from Gas heating to Heat pumps, but I'd question those assumptions.
Before I get accused of de-ramping, I'm not, I'm just telling you my experience with a heat pump.
My previous house was a renovation job, or as the surveyor described it "a doer up er". The house in question is a 5 bedroom detached, built around 1990 so not particularly old and well insulated with full double glazing; I had solar panels fitted on the roof and a Grant Aerona 13Kw Air source heat pump replacing the Oil fired boiler. The solar panels were great, it was around 2010 and we received the full tariff and allowances for electricity generation, it was even better until our electricity supplier found that the meter was going backward and actually giving a lower reading than the previous reading, which meant a meter change and assessment with some payback to our supplier. The heat pump was a different matter, it was good for hot water in the summer, not so good for heating the house in the winter. Most houses in the UK use 10mm microbore pipe to connect to the radiators, because heat pumps need to operate at low temperatures to be efficient, most houses will need larger radiators with 15mm pipe feeding them to heat properly, or underfloor heating. The problem with microbore is that it has quite a low heat carrying capacity and isn't suitable for low temperature systems requiring larger radiators, like heat pumps, just check out peoples experiences online. My current house also has 10mm microbore pipe feeding the rads, which isn't a problem since I have gas central heating and the water is pumped through at 70 degrees, as opposed to heat pumps that are efficient at around 40 degrees, and less so at 50 degrees. The efficiency of an air source heat pump also depends on the outside temperature, I lived in the South West in my previous home and the winter temperatures weren't nearly as harsh as the North, so that's another issue. Ground source heat pumps are considerably more expensive to install than Air source, so there's that to consider. What I'm saying is that I wont be giving up my Gas central heating anytime soon, unless I'm forced to.
I know people who have EV's, I've avoided them myself, they have range issues due to charging and tyre issues due to the weight, and the second hand valuations for Tesla's are falling through the floor. In the US, motorists are turning to hybrids, don't take my word on this, check it out yourselves, so it'll be a long time before cha
Flec
You are a non shareholder who came to this board, purposely disrupting with a number of de ramping posts and an inaccurate account of the rights issue and other NG fundamentals, which may have had an effect on current shareholders actions and that of any potential new investors. It is of Zero interest to you.
I sold a few days before the announcement and yet still qualify. Seems odd but I'm going to get roughly £800 for not taking up the offer. Equates to £2/share more on the price I sold out at. Happy bunny here as I was exiting all my positions
£60 Hln is a red herring.
They were already targeting £30 Bln over next 5 years , so it’s only an additional £30 bln.
They decided to do £6 bln from the rights issue,as I personally believe they may get a better negotiated return by showing that shareholders are involved,unlike the water fiasco,where div and bonus still being paid as the debt got bigger and bigger.
Just my opinion
Ther are a allowed a rate of return on that investment. That return is factored into the charges the regulator allows them to make.
They have to invest in a number of sub-sea cables to facilitate all the offshore wind. The wind is in Scotland and the North to South flows are not compatible with the current grid and the public doesn't want new lines onland.
The investment is a fundemental part of the business model - whether it is £6B or £60B.
How can Nat Grid invest an unfathomable amount of money into upgrading the infrastructure and still be profitable? It would take a lot to offset such an investment. Essentially the cost of borrowing will more than double as the long term liabilities will more than double. Scary picture.
I'll be doubly happy 🫤
0.5% of 3,967,138,214 = 19,835,691 shares shorted
Using NG's closing price of £8.82 on the 31st May, as Sculptures assumed NG short price, then the value of the short position comes to £174,950,795. Using those figures, Sculpture are currently sitting on a loss of around £6.2 Million, and if they're still holding on Ex Div day they'll have to stump up around £7.8 Million in dividends. I'll happily be corrected if my working out is wrong and will happily be corrected, I've rounded up some of the figures.
Torn
'' the price rally has got them on a squeeze for the next day and a half.''
any 'short' positions of course will have the dividend amount to pay out.
Tried to take up today and on one tranche it says:
Due to restrictions in place you are not able to Apply online. Please contact the shareholder helpline using the details on the Contact us page if you would like to discuss this further.
So, now a nice long wait on the phone - all I did was follow the instructions.
Over 0.5% by one entity. Someone intending to acquire post divi gains price through a CFD short possibly. They took out on 31 May and the price rally has got them on a squeeze for the next day and a half. Unless they get a lower low forming , they made a hash up on that opening short.
No longer oversold on the daily with hourly approaching overbought RSI at 65. Interesting to see how they play this with one and half sessions to go before ex-divi. Buying for the divi made a lot of sense at 830-840p. Less of a bargain at 907p.
The technical selling (people who had to raise money by selling existing shares to finance their rights) has ended. We are in the post issue phase.
The price IS lower in real terms than before the announcement but higher than it was this time last weekn
Now we can concentrate on future business prospects.
Sold the share buy 28th for 905p making about 2% over the 7 days after stamp tax .
The buyers will have the 39p div.
Have the extra rights bought same day for 200p .
In hindsight should of got more of either over the following two days .
Obviously never great see sp drop or bad news in general but worked numbers took my allocated shares luckily with dividends that had come in recently and actually ok down a little & barring anymore F ups manageable in short term & benefit in long
Don't want to bother with politics but I didn't read anything about Sir K's lot possibly putting extra taxes on electric area, NG etc. I did see some press stuff about oil & gas. Anyway IMHO NG et al have nothing to fear from hypothetical tax changes, and in fact, an increased attention to energy transition tec and investment can only benefit NG.
“NG likely to put in a post divi low.”
Think it may bring out some more bargain hunters.
There does seem to be demand and strength.
Thanks for your analysis,seems sensible
Believe I am right. They will not pay and let the Government take action if they dare.
Coming up to resistance around 905p and closing USA chart gap especially as pound has now strengthened against USD. Likely to edge back on USA open as divi dodgers start to make their play. SP drops about 40p on 6th June as go ex-divi and the nil paids are bought and can be traded. NG likely to put in a post divi low.
ROCK ON , grid get back to where you should be £10.00+
You asked this on the day a short was opened..
Citi upgraded National Grid on Monday to 'buy' from 'neutral' and lifted the price target to 985p from 920p as it cited an attractive risk/reward.
"We see an attractive set up with: 1) a constructive political and regulatory outlook; 2) materially improved balance sheet with overhang removed; 3) at an attractive valuation for underlying assets that's meeting its regulatory and financial targets, albeit scope to improve," the bank said.
It noted that National Grid shares are currently trading at a 10% discount to its long-term EV RAB premium of 30%, with a sustainable and growing dividend offering circa 5.5% yield.
"With this combination of factors, as well as potential macro tailwind from rate cuts later in the year and into 2025 from the BoE, we see risk reward tilted to the upside," Citi said.