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I don't know.
Are we expecting a trading update in July before the interims/half year report in September?
I am not sure I get the logic that to make an acquisition or more ...they would benefit in with holding information on their performance?
the trading update was not great and they were clearly not monetising their current portfolio in any great way.
CS , I'm not saying Novacyt have had a successful H1 , however if you were making an acquisition or more then one.....
Which is possible, would you declare your hand ?
I wouldn't. The company only has to prove it has adequate funds to cover the proposed buy out price.
"Bottom line is can Ncyt actually perform, never mind about Ygen? When will they make any profit post COVID?"
davand - valid point.
I think SH have been more than patient with the company...we lost a year plus with salad man,,,
the acquisition is a move in the right direction but they also need to monetise the existing portfolio
'Bottom line is can Ncyt actually perform, never mind about Ygen? When will they make any profit post COVID?'
Well wasn't it you who said all it will take it trimming some of the fat from YGEN to be instantly profitable? So that's a start. Then there's the ~£65m which will go towards further M&A (potentially another three acquisitions the size of ygen) and finally it remains to be seen if all the work novacyt have been putting in can deliver profit in the months and years ahead.
To eventually end up with say a group producing £10m profit at a PE of 12-15 and hence a 4X - 5X return from here seems a reasonable conservative target to me.
I'm not sure it does CS because we have a counterclaim almost as large as the DHSC claim - so for balance I should probably point out that there could be a serious drop in the share price or a massive cash injection on top of what I already included.
It's a few of Ygens ii that will need to agree, and they will if no other offers come in. They will have to take whatever is on the table as their shareholders won't be happy. Their biggest shareholder has agreed, so the rest will follow imo. Half a loaf better than none!
Harchris..it should be noted..in the interest of balance that should the dispute go against ncyt then there could be a serious drop in sp.
Bottom line is can Ncyt actually perform, never mind about Ygen? When will they make any profit post COVID?
There's a very simple reason why YGEN holders may buy NCYT... if they truly believe YGEN is worth double what ncyt are paying for them then effectively they can today buy novacyt + yourgene + ~£65m cash and all debt wiped out for £31m! And they consider YGEN to be worth about that alone and a lot more with cash behind them.
The risk to buying ygen..is that another offer does not come through and the required number of votes are not met for ncyt offer.
Where would that leave the company?
I suspect if the votes are not met then ygen will say it is that or the company folds. Another placing may not be an option.
In that case the sp could collapse even if only temporary before they went back to ncyt.
The price is too near offer price...so without any sign of another offer ..and there hasn't been. The risk / reward is not appealing.
As for ygen holders moving over to ncyt...tricky one.
Have ncyt shown themselves to be much better at managing things? Ummmm
The new bod additions are hardly a good sign of impending improvement.
However if they feel like many of us on here that there will probably be upside on dispute resolution...then that would be a reason
Obviously I hope that ncyt acquire and get their act together in terms of monetising
We get some traction and then dispute gets resolved.
Fingers crossed
For me Lyn Rees will be staying for a few months to hand the reigns of YGEN to someone that JW selects, then be gone.
He overstretched the finances at YGEN, and is responsible for the companies present state of affairs. That won't be a good enough track record for Wakefield IMO.
Hi harchris ....would you follow a CEO that trashed your investment led the company to a placing that netted himself profit with no apologies or explanation and walked straight onto board of company funding there company's orcastrated absorption ....maybe that's why it's called senti- mental thinking ...
Oh fair enough. My thinking was simply that it's almost certainly going to go through and a 7% gain over a short period is sensible. But yeah with the markets on the move it's no where near enough of a gain to be worth it, would like to think YGEN holders themselves move first and start buying ncyt.
No I meant why would you hold.
Its near the top , the markets really moving.
I would sell and invest elsewhere , rather then tie my funds up in the hope another offer appears.
Kaeren, do you mean tempted to buy YGEN at .49 for an easy gain on the .522 takeover price with the additional possibility of another offer materialising? If so I thought about it earlier this week too but decided against it just in case the deal did end up falling through and YGEN collapsed back to .20
Just to prove warrants aren't always the free money they are believed to be, from one of the ygen Rns's today
Life Technologies also holds warrants over 20,325,204 new ordinary shares exercisable at 24.6p, warrants over 17,094,018 new ordinary shares exercisable at 11.7p, and warrants over 16,913,319 new ordinary shares exercisable at 11.8p (together the "Life Technologies Warrants"). As a result of previous share price performance, the Company is able to request Life Technologies to exercise the warrants or to waive their rights under them prior to their expiry in December 2023. The Company has made this request and Life Technologies have confirmed they do not wish to exercise these warrants. As a result, the Life Technologies Warrants over an aggregate of 54,332,541 new ordinary shares have now been cancelled.
HChris , watching YGEN now. Whilst nothing much happening in the market pi's happy to sit and wait to see if another offer materialises. Will they sit and wait now market is bouncing. Sp near offer , I'd be very tempted to play the rise. Thoughts ?
Exactly, the share price is depressed by at least a factor of 3 or 4 because of the dispute. Anything that gives confidence that the dispute won't go the government's way or may even land in ncyt's favour will bring confidence back here and more steady buying pressure. I mean just look at the enterprise value, usually you're looking for as low as possible but it's never negative. Here it is for novacyt:
Enterprise Value = Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash = £32m + £0 - £87m = -£55m.
Simply unheard of and hence shows what will happen if the dispute goes our way.
Not wisdom Giz, its as a few have said, it seems now, that they havent "ringfenced" the money, as "many" suggested. So shows confidence of a positive Dhsc outcome, which considering how many approvals, Nova have now and the expansion (even though slower than we hoped) is happening?
Just need to see a move from Covid into a more diverse portfolio and a couple of nice regular contracts and this could bouncing back way past a pound, never mind they will have way over 100+ mil still in cash to support them?
Maybe not the heady highs of £10/13, but most certainly £1-4 for the patient, and I think you would agree we have all be more than patient... with the exception of PL 1,000,000 moans :)
Hi valjue ...maybe ..but it will come from a point... if it reaches a £1 from a lower base than the 50p ... the informed make a bigger % on result as there is no other news to hold at the £1 ... personally I see higher but respect your wisdom ....
I see £1 plus personally, each to their own.. and I see a payout coming from Dhsc also imo
dyor imo
Hi harchris ....tread carefully on completion ...cash in bank reductions...wage and running cost increase ...market sees...37 - 55....acquisition....55 - 40 ....30% both ways = 60% = smart ....maybe
Slowly slowly catchy monkey.
The idea of being gazumped seems to have simmered down on the Yourgene board now, not that it was something us ncyt holders thought likely… would be nice to see this steadily rise over the next month before the acquisition is official before Q3 is out.