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"ill-timed 2019 private equity buyout"
that's short hand for a private equity buying a company with a debt that is loaded on the company books, and then COVID happens . Passenger numbers plummet and interest rates rise.....
Private equity firm walks away unscathed and pockets million in management fees. Isn't turbo capitalism great....
I think this will risky mess up the NA sale, look how cheap megabus assets went for - mobico heading for 30s , or lower , or administration
One to filter right here.
This will eventually happen..... but not right now..
Will happen in the 20s.
This is now being engineered by management for the SP to fall as far as possible before they are rewarded behind closed doors.
Low ball offer or taken private.
Management will then move on to a well paid job elsewhere.
What a shame
And more. christ they all come out on a red day don't they. then scurry away when it goes blue.
The sad fact is such a low margin business stifled by all that debt is like having a pillow put over your face.
Market is wary of any debt-laden company atm not making sufficient operating profit
Guys - I have bought and sold this share for over a year now - the recovery here is basically the sale of the USA business - there is no sale otherwise the board would have updated the market in the AGM - the market and the shorts are concluding that there is no buyer for the American business - with future debt to facilitate that puts MCG in big trouble imo as the American sale is/was the solution to counter the debt, and it is why Qube opened their 0.5pct short a few days ago - adverse macro days will hammer this share as there is no other news to consider - positive macro days will give the share some respite as it did yesterday - but the trend is down - the shorts know it, the market knows it and I know it -
gla dyor etc
Another new low!!
I'm about to throw the towel here, better to lose 60% than 100% is my thinking. What an absolute mess, it really puts one off investing, a total casino
Sell now and buy back on the up-turn (if it comes). The trend is your friend.
Jcj
Do you really think you will lose 100% and this will go bust?
Do you not think that if push came to shove and NA schools sale isn't agreed by year end as they stated, that they have a growing business in Alsa which could be offloaded ( probably a queue of buyers) at at least 1.5 billion making MCG debt free?
So many traders on here, trolls entering to disrupt , ask yourself the question, knowing that Alsa is growing, profitable and the Jewel in their crown, do you think they're going bust?
If yes and you feel that mcg is comparable to Cineworld etc then sell, if not just hold and try to forget as I'm doing.
It’s not good to bury your head in the sand.
Buyers would rather wait for MCG to go to the ground and hoover up the assets for peanuts that to offer any ‘market value (that you determine).
The market value is factored into MCG share price and mcap. You are spreading fake news. Of millions and millions of market participants, MCG is worth £300m today.
JG
You make some good points but I just can't understand another 3% drop today, 26% in less than a month from when it was 60p which in itself was or so I thought in bargain territory. Im finding it disconcerting to be frank. I would feel slightly reassured if the BOD at least made a substantial purchase
ALSA is not worth £1.5bn. How have you got to that silly, fake valuation
Buyers waiting to buy the bits of this company when it goes into belly up now.
Why pay a premium for the US part when they can buy it much, much cheaper later ?
If you said sub 50p two years ago you would have been laughed at.
Management will have nice, prosperous lives regardless which is what this is all about at the end of the day.
Hsbc valuation in March.
Lol you believe what an IB says. Like they give you these crazy SP targets, fail to re-rate in the good times, fail to downgrade in the bad.
MCG is simply a massive fraud full of restatements. The new CFO will let you know. Something smells very fishy about MCG.
" MCG is worth £300m today."
yeah right (not).... "worth" is a poor word to use ....
the MCAP is of no interest to the City right now ....none
the only interest is in trading shares in order to make a profit .... and ..after the FED comment the market is sticking with keeping cash where it is.... market now has a 56% probability of a US rate cut in September , only an 8% probability in July
Company guidance is for 2024 Group Adjusted EBIT to be in the range £185m to £205m
Talk of going bust is nonsense and irresponsible ...with nothing to back up comments ... just vague "opinion"
They can service the debt now. They could even service the hybrid converted to debt, however we know that would likely not be possible with current covenants.
Howver is the worst case not the hybrid is kept ans increases +4%/£20m cost? That will hilurt cash flow but give time for further recovery? It feels like this would be the least damaging for shareholders and provide breathing space, unless I have misunderstood.
Jcb
In my lay opinion, we were comfortably around the 60s level either side give or take, until the Berenberg downgrade, couple with poor US data a week ago or so, leading to where we are on sentiment/ short increases only, and as pokerchips says US rate expectations.
I don’t think a company that can cover interest payments from income and with 300mil on the balance sheet will go bust unless it’s by design.
Based on the short attack and sudden increase of
Trolls I think this close to being resolved one way ar the other.
Schmoky
I think if they extend the hybrid it adds 4% making 8.75%, and if they converted the equity part to debt it would be unacceptable covenant level of debt, I think.
JG, that's what I mean. Isnt the worst case (in case of no NA sale) an increase of cost to service the hybrid, keeping as equity? No breach of covenants and plod on with recovery. I am not clear where the route to bust is coming from