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Updated Potential 2024 Q1 RNSs (04032024]
✅ something else 1 = Collins Aseto - Head of Exploration in East Africa
✅ something else 2 = 60% ownership of producing Manganese mine
✅ Nyorinyori and NyoriGreen additional licences payment agreement
✅Exercise of warrants (unlikely but potentially)
❌ Director / PDMR transactions (unlikely due to closed period)
◦ Updated presentation will be released and will include numbers on both Blesberg and Kinusi - operating/mining processing/admin and revenue streams and margins
◦ Kinusi modular plant completion, transportation, installation and commissioning (February)
◦ Kinusi Phase 2 drill plan/commencement
◦ Kinusi commencement of copper concentrate production
◦ Offtake agreement Copper
◦ Competent Persons Report
◦ Offtake agreement Lithium
◦ Blesberg phase 1 results / JORC statement
◦ Blesberg production initial flow/production stats - (revenue figure?)
◦ Blesberg Airborne survey results
◦ Blesberg Satellite survey results
◦ Tomra COM XRT 1200 ore sorter arrival at Blesberg (January)
◦ Blesberg non Lithium arrangements
◦ Korridor update
✅ EGM - takeover waiver / other updates
✅ Board addition
◦ Listing update NSE
◦ Listing update JSE
◦ Listing update LSE
◦ New Auditors and expanded finance team
◦ Nyorinyori and NyoriGreen phase 1 staged share payment
◦ Nyorinyori and NyoriGreen phase 1 results
◦ Nyorinyori and NyoriGreen phase 2 exploration activities updates
◦ Zimbabwe Lithium
◦ Kenya Copper
◦ Kenya Lithium
◦ Kenya Manganese
◦ Nickel project
◦ Bagamoyo update
◦ Bagamoyo phase 1 staged share payment
◦ Bagamoyo expansion?
◦ 2023 Q4 report
◦ Community engagement updates
◦ More Exercise of warrants (unlikely but potentially)
◦ Indaba information / news
◦ Environmental, Social and Corporate Governance update?
◦ Research / Brokers note
🆕 Further Executive Management growth
🆕 and something else 3 & 4 🫣
Not expected in Q1 2024 but noteworthy
◦ Annual Report up to 31/12/2023 (probably Q2)
◦ Offtake agreement Graphite (guess Q2)
◦ 2024 Q1 report potentially including revenue update
DISCLAIMER - All of the above is a personal view and not company endorsed
Good steady buying this morning, looking for 20p at least when off take news drops.IMHO.
EEE in situ value is literally trillions. The debate is whether it is 2 or 200. Happy to meet you on their board if you want to reopen that discussion.
Back to Marula,
See my list
◦ Updated presentation will be released and will include numbers on both Blesberg and Kinusi - operating/mining processing/admin and revenue streams and margins
This info is outstanding but we are told will be forthcoming as part of news released after the 8th of March EGM and I suspect once they have listed on the nairobi and johnnesburg stock exchanges.
Jason talks about the frustration of wanting to get the figures released in this youtube I linked below, buy you don't watch promotional videos? If so it's hard for me to feed you all the info when it's all in the videos.
https://youtu.be/AQZCprmVBB8?si=B09tzIjPW_-7029E
here is another one for you rainsalot
p/e valuation
if marula can get to a position in the next few months where they are projected to make £40m profit in the following 12 months, and lithium prices continue to rise.
do we see a favourable p/e ratio?
10x£40m would be £400m market cap
20x£40m would be £800m market cap
fully diluted 400m shares, £800mk is £2/share
*****' talked about marula being 20 to 30x undervalued at 10p
Don't call me darling mate. No right. Can we continue this on EEE? I Will post my reply there.
Marula however, here's a path to $100m revenue a year from the Lithium
https://twitter.com/AndrewMathieso3/status/1764622083844161980?t=_kof1UO8lZM_14VbGRRsnA&s=19
I quoted the geo experts assumption that there is a 50MT exploration target.
I then made an in-situ assumption based on the geo experts estimate of 2.5% average grade which was found by taking samples at the mine shafts, along the out crop at surface then at the lower grade edges. They took trench bulk samples and came up with 2.5%.
I calculated $2b using 10MT not 50MT to be conemservative. And used tofays copper price. That's how in-situ figures are made. Yes they usually use JORC data but my data is potentially only 20% of the actual in-situ value.
Conservative numbers, estimates, with the working and sources all supposed.
Do you need me to come round to your house with a pencil and do the calculation for you?
Andii. I wouldnt give him the pleasure of winding you up. It doesnt matter how many facts and figures you throw at him, he isnt interested.All he wants is to disrupt this board, but if ignored he might just go away! We all know that we are on to a winner here and at the end of the day that is all that matters.
The model has been very successful for Q global so I guess when a plant costs less than $2m and the locals have been selling 20% to 40% copper containing Ore for many years, and the geologists can see where they have mined, and what is still to mine, and their lab results confirm high grades on a 1km by 300m strike.
Am i being totally stupid here? There's a high probability of a very fast ROI meanwhile the experts are drilling and air surveying the prospect for phase 2 ramp up.
Spades in the ground now and the total exploration and initial production budget will be repaid quickly from 25% Ore which they have already bulk sampled and tested can be done.
The wider $2b or $10b or $500m or whatever value is semantics. All exploration and perdition is already paid for and will start generating cash.
DSO so all they need is likely power, water and a few operators plus excavators. Stage one is hardly rocket science and costs a few million.
But they didn't do a pfs and a dfs taking 3 years costing $15m!!
But they haven't done 10,000m drill.campaign costing $10m
But they haven't designed a $50m plant based on the DFS results!
But they haven't done an acid Leach copper plant before so it's high risk! They must not be experts!
Let's wait for the CPR report shall we
From Jason the CEO on Friday when I asked him:
"Kinusi was to be a DSO concentrate. But we’ve asked Jana to look at the processing more - she was the ex-GM from Copper 360 in South Africa where they were producing copper cathode and she drove a lot of that.
So I’m due to get feedback from her at the end of next week and that may change the equation a bit.
The copper there at Kinusi is almost 100% acid soluble and as such exceptionally well suited to extraction SXEW to produce such a cathode.
We will update more once we get Jana’s comments and recommendations."
This is all from memory and im no geologist.
If you read the RNS's (i sent a link yesterday to a PDF with all RNS's devided into projects)
Yes they have done test work on the material to design and build the phase one plant.
They have also surely done further testing which confirms the ore is almost 100% acid leachable otherwise how would they know?
No we don't have those official metalurgy results as we are awaiting the CPR report, have mentioned this about 5 times now.
I sent a link over the weekend with the RNS shows you all the steps for the stage 1 plant. They crush, mill and grade into a higher grade output.
The original miners were selling 20 to 40% material so it's definitely possible (phase 1)
We know the surface ore is oxides and deeper down we think its sulphides. We know there is gold and other metal byproducts.
A quick Google will tell you that oxides (the easy to access high grade surface material they will originally target to get the 25% sellable DSO concentrate or whatever) is a low capex easy process to upgrade. Especially when your average grades are (I'm assuming here) well over 2.5% as they target the obvious high grade zones first.
-I don't know the cost of the capex for phase 2
-There was a delay and changes to the plant design around November so there is maybe a slight modification to the flowsheet based on the developing metalurgy/mine plan
-i don't know the names of the minerals or what processing they require
-the initial plant from the photos looks like there are tables maybe wash tables/separation tables of some type so maybe grinding and removing the soluables/mud is enough to get 25% concentrate. Water plus ore gives concentrate right?
Jason has told me that tonnage figures have been released but didn't have time to look them out for me.
Now you know as much as me and I would really appreciate if you started doing your own research and maybe coming back with some useful info and not pet names and cheek please. Sound reasonable enough? OK cool, looking forward to your positive contribution now I won't be replying again.
The PDF with RNS's divided into projects for you (again). Credit to Kev w on telegram thanks mate.
https://mobidrive.com/sharelink/p/3rOAlTRnizcTnUp3YCawr250ZJ66urtJOAKFmlLvgXjg
You are a numty.If you are so hung up on official results go buy rio tinto.
DSO is direct shipped pre.It is graded by partial size and weight???
Excellent post, thank you Andii and Kev W.
I had started creating a 'family tree' of Q Global, GMI, Marula, Muchai, Shuka, NEO, Takela, GIM and more, but this pdf is v interesting and much more detailed than I had developed so far.
Thanks for sharing.
Rains,
I've not asked again. Feel free to message him yourself.
I found info on feed rates in this RNS
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/marula_mining/news/rns/story/w6mp5gx
"The Processing Plant has been designed with up-front crushing capacity of 20 tonnes per hour (“TPH”) with initial milling capacity set at 5TPH and with the capacity to be increased to 20TPH"
The initial target contains visible high grade material but not sure on its average grade.
Let's assume 2:1 ore to product.
5tph at 10h/day x 30 days = 300hours x5tph = 1500t at 2:1 = 750t of copper. $1000/t for 20% copper = $750k/month revenue
At 20tph that becomes $3m/month revenue
No idea on opex but if it's anything like blesburg it should be under 30% so quite a nice profit margin.
$15-20m profit a year? 300%IRR or more?
Hi Rains, this one is for you buddy.
On the 6th March I calculated on a post in this thread that Kinusi would potentially earn $15-20m profit a year from copper sales.
Figures released today show pre tax operating cash flow of $14.9m from next year.
https://twitter.com/JB_MiningAfrica/status/1785587543108440312?t=mNB3RcHUsOW3ZkBkIqu3kQ&s=19
Good revenue on way.I will be happy when seller has gone.Look like 30k day that's just looking at phone though??