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IMO as we all have say.... I very much doubt these to rise till the back end of Q3 which holds many answers. Firstly we need the actual signed JV doc, then we need the RNS on the actual deal to make interest and heads turn, then we need the restriction to the lowest govt setting to allow investment to take place. Those watching these shares to raise this month or next are sadly going to be disappointed. We expect mid Aug to Sept to make these rise and a few more shakes of the tree before true value is seen. I would say "Buy" for a long term but "Sell" if you're you cannot wait 90days ++ These will blossom 2021. Again IMO these will settle throughout summer 49-56p then as we head to Q3 results uplift.
Thank Blawat for the info for me or whoever it is Fiona! You sound like the horses mouth! but we could all say the same after a sober appraisal.
Its trading at these levels near term because of the risk of second wave. Infact most shares in restaurants / hospitality / airlines are. All these shares are trading at or near levels of what they were on 22nd May. Check Mitchell for example.
For Marstons, remember they got cash of c.£250m which equates to c. 30cents per share. Thats why it went up from 35p per share to c.66p per share on the day of announcement. Near term it will surely go up to those levels again subject to second wave not becoming a reality. The news of Leicester lockdown started this with worry of other areas also needing a lockdown after a spike in R factor. With pubs opening, this risk has gone higher. If there is no negative news on this for the next week, i think these will rise again. Anyhow, these are good buying levels.
mint where is the £250m cash you mention?
Carlsberg JV deal £273m
@mint502
So you think that by giving up 100% control of the brewery for a 40% stake that money, when it is paid, will be kept as cash ?
When they have a huge debt pile (one could say mountain) ?
?? Not sure if i said they will keep the cash. Sorry, basic valuation on share price. EV - "Net Debt" = Market Cap / shares = share price. If they get cash, it reduces net debt. Doesnt matter if they keep cash in hand or pay debt. Its Net Debt thats important. Obviously, any company will pay down debt rather than holding it in bank account. BTW, they have not given up 100% control. Its a JV.
mint adding to Barchid's contribution, money coming from Carlsberg will pay down debt which at the end of the last financial year came to c. £1.3billion. We do not know how debt has increased/decreased during the last 6 months.
If you believe the reciept from Carlsberg will add to the NAV, think again as we do not know how commercial property values have been effected by current events. This is not unique to Marstons but to every company within the hospitality sector.
AIMO DYOR
Mint
I am intrigued that you believe owning 40% only of the votes, having sold the other 60% means MARS have not given up 100% control ?
Do you remember Vodafone & Verizon perhaps ?
Verizon just refused to pay a dividend, forcing VOD to dispose of their holding & look at them now.....
Its not only about economic interest, its also actually infact more depends on how board etc is composed. As far as i remember of what i read in highlights of docs from memory, the CEO of the JV will be Carlsberg CEO and Chairman will be Marstons CEO. Rest of the board will also be quite equal. Moreover, in the docs at least, Marstons has reserved a lot of say on how cash can be used including minimum dividend payments. What in reality will happen, obviously no one knows, but going by on the ground facts its structured as a JV, and thats why they call it as such. I am also quite sure, Marstons will fully consolidate results and accounting will not be an equity investment. I am sure Marstons must have delved into Vodafone as case study. They are a smart operator and want to create shareholder value. The timing of the JV was good to get the much needed cash support and the synergies of more than £20m EBITDA, although i am note sure of Carlsberg as a brand in UK.
CMBC board comprises 2 execs from Marstons and 3 from Carlsberg. There are dispute protocols, Carlsberg's history should be researched! The nominated Board members of CMBC will recieve remunerations which are yet to be disclosed. Any disposal of dividends is to be payed under agreed terms. not forgetting costs relating to the consolidation of the various Brewing businesses and distribution centres. The JV predicts savings of £20m in year 3 by which time and using historic sales productions, the combined sales from the brewing business will need to increase by 22% for Marstons to stand still.
The asumption being annual sales will increase by 7+% which has never been achieved in recent times.
If Marstons wish to further pay down debt ( £350m is due repayment in 2023) hands are tied to some degree as they will be in breach of the JV agreement IF more than 50% of the estate is Sold.
It can be argued RF was rushed into a deal after the failure of the Pitcher and Piano sale and transferring a tranche of PUbs to Admiral at a significant discount. These deals or failures encouraged a swift deal with Carlsberg to enable the Group to achieve debt reduction promised especially with COVID 19 on the horizon.
Make no mistake Carlsberg Execs are no mugs!!!
This thread was designed very generously to settle nerves and we could do without the same old iteration from the dynamic duo here. I was going to post earlier that jedclampit was answered in the first post before he asked it. As for mint502, I think he deserves to put his points as a newcomer to the chat and will be disabused as necessary without any help going forward.
"This thread was designed very generously to settle nerves and we could do without the same old iteration from the dynamic duo here."
There is now a mind-reader in our midst! Quite an amusing statement which on the face of it seeks to obscure the financial background that is Marstons.
Looking through rose-tinted glasses may lead in-experienced investors to lose money. After all what is the market used for? .......the transfer of money from one investor to another. Work out who wins and who loses!!
The growth of newbies on many of these boards, since lockdown is quite noticeable. They should be very careful this market has become a casino where the "Poker-players" try to be clever until rumbled, then they vanish to another board and victims.
Anyone who is/has been nervious, should not be investing especially in a Market like this one
Before investing, all newbies should read up on the basics of investing on the Stockmarket, it will save a lot of embarrassment , financial hardship and stop sleepless nights.
So you’re not aloud to invest if you are nervous? (corrected your spelling BTW). That is about the most ridiculous thing I’ve ever seen posted lol. You’re telling me that the likes of Warren Buffet Jim Cramer et al have never been nervous when investing? Come off it!
People who are nervous are doing themselves and their family no good what so ever. Their views can often become obsessive and unrational, never a good frame of mind to make informed decisions which affect wealth. Once a decision is made stick by it and not ponder, if this if that. As for Warren Buffett who makes decisions without pondering. So yes I am telling you these Gurus do not lose sleep over decisions they have or are about too make.
As for ridiculous, lets leave that for other experienced investors to decide.
The very fact you RT, have chosen to react in such a way indicates someone unable to cope with the up's and down's the market can throw our way.
Take a few more valium it will calm your nerves.
You are very special lol. I love fishing for you on here. You never let me down, thank you. Good luck today. Not looking good......
The nervous are allowed to invest!! Corrected your spelling BTW
Not allowed to invest as it's not good for their families? :)