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https://www.tradingview.com/x/CEKbHWYZ/
Low 80s within the next 2-3 months in my view based on the volume profile - the above chart starts from the day when the Pfizer / BioNTech vaccine was announced.
Pattern now broken, mildly bearish now.
Pattern roughly back in play and broken through the oblique resistance again - the past 2-3 trading days were brutal.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/NLlC6FEX/
We're also now above the volume shelf, the next one is in the high 40's, and the momentum indicators are all pointing up. Looking good again.
lejjb
Please don't think I am cynical, but 8 days ago, stock was 39.64 & "going to low 80's", yesterday stock 37.12 "mildly bearish", today stock is 38.14 "looking good again".
Are you for real or just having a laugh ?
Serious question...
Learn about serious TA, bother looking at the charts that I actually posted, read again what I’ve written and then see whether you’ll say the same thing.
When a pattern has been broken, you have to reassess your position. Better doing it asap before it gets too late to preserve one’s capital.
And note that I didn’t give a downwards target when I said « “mildly bearish”, because that bearishness was indeed only mild and the outcome not clear at all.
The large intraday swings of the SP are the reason for my subsequent re-reassessment.
Really ?
Has it made you any money, changing your mind on movements of less than the bid ask spread on the stock seems rather odd to me, & I suspect many others.
If TA was all you cracked it up to be you might find everyone was doing it, then it becomes self defeating.
I roughly ended up at break even (I use leveraged trading.) But my primary concern wasn't to make money on intraday or 1-3 day movements, it was to protect my capital. If that means I might get back in for a deal that's not as good, so be it, at least I aim to keep my losses in check first and foremost.
And TA (good one, so not most of what's posted on Twitter is utter rubbish) does have a some self-defeating aspect like you rightly pointed out: pros and algos tend to go for the strongest signal . So it's a balancing exercise. But one aspect that mirrors what you mention is that many people avoid mentioning their targets for that very reason - or many who do give vastly inflated ones. Or they have several intermediate targets, taking profits along the way.
lejjb
Yes I get the downside protection bit which is probably much more effective than a simple stop loss.
I am just a bit cynical about reading too much into charts, they can be a great pointer or guide at times, providing one is aware that many people are coming to the same conclusion looking at a similar chart.
Sadly pubs & other hospitality shares have so many unexpecteds thrown at them currently, (labour shortage, power costs being just 2), that past performance as on charts has less relevance is what I'm really thinking.
I rarely believe anyone who claims to be a pure chartist and still makes money, but charts are a useful tool amongst others to gauge sentiment.
I just don't overly rely on them and I try to be as exacting as possible with charts, i.e. I want very clear signals or I tend to exit my positions.
Just one more point: pubs are certainly not the healthiest sector right now (as most consumer retail businesses in the UK) but Marston's is in an odd position as its SP is treated as if we were still in the middle of the pandemic, pre-vaccine and pre- Carlsberg deal. And it was explicit that it had some of its energy deals fixed before everything went tits up until 2025. So while margins and demand will be affected by the current events, it is still in a healthy position vs other large pub chains (except maybe Young's that's surprisingly doing well) and its marcap is priced in as if it were still at substantial risk of going under due to Covid.
So it's not a screaming buy, the situation is more mixed but not fully bad. Thus I rely on TA even more here to give me some more basic guidance.
lejjb
Understood, thanks for the conversation, always good to hear a sensible & different perspective than ones own.