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Gradual increase or does anyone think this will recede slightly over the next few days?
SP seems to react really well to positive news so hopefully will spike again when oxford vaccine comes and lockdown ends
Thank you for advice all, decided to buy in at 70p today, can see this rocketing to 90 next month if there's no lockdown and then to 100+ as everyone goes out boozing in the post vaccine world.
Yes Dave, I understand that, however the less pubs there are the more the likes of MARS will sweep up those excess customers (similar to airlines or just about anything commercial).
Marstons will not ‘Take the room from smaller pubs that go bust’ - it simply doesn’t work like that!
This made me chuckle as all I could think of was Calgary Cowboy, on the Tesla iron horse but in reality its more like Brain Potter from Phoenix nights.....
FD
Your points that we are sitting on the old NAV now, also the way hospitality must change with likely less pressing of the flesh & overnight stays in future are well made.
Problem is no one knows how things will evolve but really we have to rely on RF & his team to keep losses down & standards up, a tough call but it needs to be achieved as Mars will now be a hospitality house with a 40% stake in a good new brewing co. So these Motels/pubs must pay their way. Some will, for sure, but the Pitcher & Piano's, for instance, will need work done as they are (imo) below the level of competitors like All Bar One & being in city centres will be competing for a significantly lower footfall for a while as people wfh.
However there are plus sides as well, especially Mars locations which often suit long weekends, for instance, admirably, so we must rely on RF getting the balance of costs & services right & identify what to keep & improve & what to lose.
On balance I think he will do it as he comes across as knowledgeable & very pro active. If he does we could all do very well in the sunny uplands post covid.
WRT the Auaussie digger, I think he fancies himself more as a Calgary Cowboy, on the Tesla iron horse ?
We are currently sitting at the NAV, as published a year ago. Annual figures to be published in 3 weeks will disclose where we are at and the as Barchid as stated several times, valuation of the retained Estate. Expect disclosures regarding disposal of under-performing Pubs.
The hospitality side of the business , will need to show resilience both now and going forward, as imo CV19 has created both threats and opportunities. Once the pandemic is well and truly under control and life returns to some state of normality, general belief stay-cation will be the name of the game, maybe too ambitious for these reasons. Many will want guaranteed sun and warmth, some not, many will take short-breaks( long weekends), many will getaway during Public Holidays and Summer. Many Motels/Hotels cater for Business Meetings/Breaks/Stays, which because of home working , zoom-meetings etc are and will be closely scrutinised by Business Managers. In many ways Business use of Motels is their "bread and butter".
As I suggested many weeks ago this pandemic is causing most Businesses to examine their Business Model and innovate. Marstons are at the forefront of change and must embrace it wholeheartly. Pub Businesses have been slowly dying for years, closures testity to the climate. Those who have innovated have survived and will need to further adapt and show vision for the future. I want to see Marstons coming forward with clear and precise plans on how the business will develope, they may need to re-invent and even take on new opportunities.
SC is still active with Capita and Gold mines. Did wonder if his " skills" have been captured by one of the groups who appear regularly in the Outback on Aussie Gold Miners?????
@ LTI.
The market doesn't wait, it is forward looking, and it appears the market is getting more confident by the day that soon, effective vaccines will get Covid 19 under control,hence the current price.
Very true, and good points. Either way, what they think is going to happen, and what actually does happen are sometimes quite different things. At the moment, with these vaccines it is reasoned speculation on what we think & hope will happen. If they work, and the virus is substantially subdued, or better still, totally destroyed, then great. Job done. But as yet, however effective those vaccines are is something that remains to be seen. But fingers crossed.
YoYoMa
I agree with you both (the nocturnaltiming of post was about right), but please don't tempt providence, else we could be back to paragraphs of mumbo jumbo again interspersed with how successful he (or she) is !
Tricky, we are in lockdown and we are hovering around 70 at present, will jump maybe a little when pubs re-open and steady sales pick up, so as yoyoma says 90 to 100 isn’t at all far off, reckon it may get there sooner than a year on
There are so many variables in this question that it's hard to really put a figure on it. In my opinion within a year from now I feel we should be sitting on 90-100p and that's being liberal. Others may say more but I'm taking the worse case scenario as anything over is a bonus.
In your own opinion where do you see the marston share price being in a years time.
Great minds think a like!! I thought exactly the same, the great anti-climaxer hasn't shown his face on here for a while. With a single post and being negative with no substantial evidence to prop him up I think we can comfortably say the poster or obfuscated ditherer is bored.
@4311ACQR Is that you supercharger? A strange first post.
Due for a extended lockdown,not good for sp
This stock has taken me on some wild ride and now i can see hope.
T7
Agree that C19 would have to be well and truly suppressed until we can hope to see a share price well beyond 100p
T7
''we'd have to wait until an effective vaccine has been rolled out ''
The market doesn't wait, it is forward looking, and it appears the market is getting more confident by the day that soon, effective vaccines will get Covid 19 under control,hence the current price.
There are obviously going to be profit takers along the way who purchased at much lower levels, but hopefully not too much of a retrace. I have no plans to sell any whilst still in double figures. I will review at the 100p level.
No, I don't see it doubling. Not considering how Covid has disrupted trading for the past 6 months or so. Don't forget that a major peak trading time (Christmas) is also likely to be affected, dependant on whatever lockdown measures are imposed.
The rise in so over the past few days in my view is a knee jerk reaction to the news of vaccines becoming available. I'd say that we'd have to wait until an effective vaccine has been rolled out & started to defeat the virus & we can all start going out more regularly in a more unfettered manner before we see those kind of figures in the sp
There is also the extra QE which inflates asset prices.
Having the choice of a big chain or an independent is better for everyone but I have to agree with you that the table has tilted favourably for the likes of mars, jdw.
Anyone think this could double in 2021? Esp as it will take the room of smaller pubs that have gone bust?
99% to do with Covid 19 vaccine news.
Good to see a high profile investor highlighting Marston. I imagine he got interested in anticipation of good news on the Covid 19 front.
should soon be rolling out their vaccine which AZN are doing on a non profit making basis
94.5% effective
Here at long last. Long may it continue.
Sorry to hear about your fences, you did make me chuckle re Capt Tom.....