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encouraging Pint time Jolly thirsty
I meant, of course In a rush today Jolly busy
Well, I like the exposure to FJET, but really I'm playing my perception of LONR's trading range (c7-8 up to 10p) & it's all underpinn (?min) ed by an interest in African agriculture (so I also have a small punt on AGTA and have played ZAM happily as well)
Brave move - seems in a bit of a down trend at the moment. Have you bought in as a play on FJET but with some downside risk protection from their other operations?
First Class eh.....the only way to travel. B/W
12.5k DYOR/not trading or investment advice
arriving?
....do i detect an Atom of positivity [kibu].... hmm, lets not get carried away...more a Quark :) B/W
The Emirates deal, were it to happen, would bring some respectability and extra business. Chance would be a fine thing. Think Cathay Pacific and Ryanair or Singapore Airlines and Easyjet. Duh? Of greater interest (and faster potential impact) is the deal to take over bust 1time. Not only would this get fastjet into SA where there are no Fly540 operations, it would also give Mr Winter and his crew a market much more likely to benefit from their experience. SA's economy is nine times the size of Tanzania's but with a similar sized population. In Tanzania, about 85% of the population jolly themselves on a daily income of less than $2. Lonrho's talk of the 'expansion of the middle class' largely comes down to Tanzanian President Kikwete's heroic personal efforts. Foreign tourist bottoms should boost PLFs. Also, SA is a significant trading partner for Tanzania. Tanzania's fast-growing Precision Air would be the competitor as they already fly the Jo'burg route. Nonetheless, still looks good potential for fastjet as they seek to buy themselves market share. kibu
yep 8.30 shd get aboard the LONR flight to paradise....
A little more of a drop and I'm in for another helping!
Fastjet in talks with Emirates according to Reuters-- perhaps Lenny can fly!
Nice one Kibu.
Thankfully Lennie's not Lonrho's pilot. While he was in charge, Fly540 had some crashes including fatalities. Fly540 Angola is still officially registered an EU 'banned airline.' As captain, he lost millions of shareholder funds on NorseAir, then Lonrho Aviation, Fly 540 Zimbabwe which never flew, and Fly 540 Angola - 'ready' in 2008 but without a paying passenger till last year. Oh, and then there's all the confusing (and costly) stuff with Fly 530, Don Smith and maintenance crews. Lenigas' grip on the joystick appears far from firm. Lennie's gone? Well, hardly, as anyone familiar with the Lonrho structure would know. David Lenigas has taken a vellum-thick stroll to his new desk. Truth be told, with Dave and Stelios both Monaco residents, he won't get more than ninety days sitting in front of the aforesaid or he'll have to pay tax like the rest of us. Were Stelios to do some heavy mentoring, 'Dave' might learn to fly. Track record shows that it'll probably be 'Dave' giving the skills training on keeping permanently afloat. kibu
If Lenny flies planes like he runs companies he will be involved in a few more crashes
Sage, jollyspeculator is right. Lenny has gone off to get his pilot's license so he can fly lots of aeroplanes.
You really don't like the man....it's quite safe, now..HE'S GONE
Hi Finbarr Agree that Kibu is the beating heart of this board! I suspect that this sp will weaken a little more - and may challenge 8p again (that play has worked for me before) DYOR/not investment or trading advice, of course! Jolly
Strewth, what is this, censorship or the Thought Police? The stars deleting the full URL are uk-analyst and then there's a "com" with a dot between. Er, are there any adults here? ***** Hey, c'mon LSE, what gives? Can't we share URLs anymore?
Two years ago I was fighting a rear-guard action against abusive BB posters who declined any debate about Lonrho's financials. Yet I've called Lonrho spot on (bar the drop to 1.9p) since 2007 and, looking at this article from 2 years ago, http://**************/shop/page-advice/action-advertorial.show/id-130008794, would recommend potential investors read, research and contrast with the bullish views of recent posters. The story hasn't changed much but it would have cost half your stake. kibu
"M, m, m, m, meaningless" kibu 30 November 2012 Lonrho's BOD often quotes McKinsey data about Africa's growth."7 of the top ten growth economies are in Africa."(RNS7350G et al) It also gets trotted out by uncritical and agenda-driven posters on various BBs. fastjet's the latest user of these figures. Delve deeper into McKinsey's statistics, cross-check with UN and CIA data and you will find that DRC's outstanding 7.2% growth has taken wage earners up to the dizzy heights of $6 per week, Zimbabwe - 9% to $9, Uganda - 5.2% to $25 and Kenya - 5% to $30. So every Kenyan can afford a fastjet ticket once a week? No, and that's not fastjet's point. Lonrho and fastjet talk about a booming middle class. Yet that's where the data gets murkier. McKinsey's data, as they clearly state in their report, is arithmetical. True wages for the masses are even lower in those countries with super-annuated elites such as Equatorial Guinea, Zimbabwe and Nigeria. And DRC? If this spectacular growth continues, the second largest African country will have an average personal weekly income, in seven years time, of $9.76. About the price of the 'T' in a G&T at Grand Karavia. Little wonder that Lonrho's business model, with further Central African instability this week and possible war looming, is increasingly high risk. Are the growth rates true? One factor affecting reported growth rates (surprisingly not highlighted by McKinsey) is that subsistence economies, as they grow, have higher transactional visibility. If I give you two dozen eggs in return for six bales of straw, there is no effect on GDP. If we exchange money, there is an effect on GDP. It goes up. This is a feature of developing economies. More transactions are reported. GDP goes up. Truthfully, there is zero growth. Outsiders looking in, beware. Brisbane Boys' alumni such as Lenigas will tout and repeat the most useful statistics available until they seem true. Lonrho's CEO pounds the same figures but, pressed, will turn whiter. Talking about Ghana, he says, "we're building," then when asked more directly by the interviewer, "we're going to build" and, pressed further, "we should have all the concession agreements in place by this August." http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rAV7c6s7spc "The White Rabbit seems to shift back and forth between pompous behaviour toward his underlings ... and ... obsequious toward his superiors." [Lewis Carroll] kibu
Good analysis, Kibu. Also, I think the FT was right on 18 November to suggest that Lonrho's management have to come good on a promise to pay a dividend next year. But stand back from all the micro stuff, and the big story is that many countries in Africa are growing at a fantastic rate as investment and consumption increase significantly. Lonrho is very well placed to benefit. I am taking advantage of the weakness in the share price to buy a few more.
fastjet's maiden flight and the build-up have attracted enormous coverage. The hype is extreme (Daniel Stewart talking of 'profit in 2013' and the figures of '40 planes and $1bn turnover' getting recycled around the journals) and there's no critical analysis. Good news for the share price and investors who are seeing higher volumes and a share price clawing its way back from recent lows. At the present rate it might reach July's placing price by next week. A doubling in the present price would also add about 2p of value to the Lonrho share price - not inconceivable if the weekend press continues the coverage or the stock gets tipped - especially in the run up to Christmas. Not a reason to buy Lonrho but maybe something to put brakes on the present slide which has seen the shares fall 30% since April against a flat FTSE All-share. kibu
Just got back into LONR. Directly invested in FJET, but the LONR investment there should underpin company performance, which is looking good in its food/agribusiness etc sectors
A new era of low cost travel dawned in Africa as Fastjet’s (LON:FAST) inaugural flight took off from left Dar es Salaam's Julius Nyerere airport earlier today.The airbus A319, bound for Mwanza in Tanzania, was almost full to capacity, with over half the passengers paying fares of US$20 a head before taxes and charges. The maiden flight marks the official start of Fastjet's commercial operations in Africa. A second A319, bound for Kilimanjaro, set off later the same morning.Fastjet’s chief commercial officer, Richard Bodin, said: "Today's flights to Kilimanjaro and Mwanza mark the start of a new, revolutionary, smart way to travel for African people, and our first steps towards becoming a low cost, reliable pan-African airline."Ticket sales for flights on Fastjet's first two routes have been very strong since they started just over two weeks ago. Seats are being secured well in advance by passengers with bookings into February 2013, the company reported. Broker Daniel Stewart says that the airline has left it a bit late to show a profit for the current year, but it could be quids in next year."If the operator hits its target of having more than 10 A319s in operation in 2013 and is able to achieve a load factor rate of between 70% - 75% we expect the business should show a healthy profit for 2013 which would imply the stock is currently trading on an attractive multiple in our view," Daniel Stewart analyst Michael Campbell said.An early move into profit would be great news for Lonrho (LON:LONR), which owns around two-thirds of Fastjet, Campbell notes.Daniel Stewart has a 'buy' rating on Lonrho, with a 20p price target. http://tinyurl.com/cthlvsj