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The boats are an emotive topic but mostly irrelevant in the scale of the numbers being discussed. It's a focus because it fits the rabble rousing agenda of a number of politicians appealing to some basic instincts. We should have a look at some data instead.
The working age population in the UK has increased by about a quarter since 1980, from about 33m then to 41.5m now.
Meanwhile the birth rate in the UK is declining by about 0.5% a year on a long term trend, and even with that decline remains one of the highest in Western Europe with only Ireland and Sweden just very marginally higher.
Based on births alone our population would be declining. In the 60s there were 18 births per 1000 people, now there are just 11 and the trend is downward. Do the maths from that. Over a generation population based only on birth would decline by about 20%
Right now we have about 1.5m unemployed people (round numbers). Since 2008 to date the unemployment rate has roughly halved from 8% to about 4%. There are currently around 950,000 job vacancies in the UK. We can argue about what those numbers mean, but they show a trend of the numbers of people available to work compared to jobs to be filled gap consistently narrowing despite ongoing levels of immigration.
The long held trope about British people not wanting to do some jobs is not true. It's just a simple calculation that there are less workers being born here and entering the jobs market than there are jobs available to be filled. That means locally born workers with an advantage in the jobs market are able to choose jobs they would prefer, avoiding things they don't want to do or are not qualified for. We can neither make enough doctors, apple pickers, nurses, or people to work in care.
The availability of those jobs is what is attracting people to come here, and the same is true for almost all of Western Europe and the US. Without immigration our jobs market, care systems, agriculture, and broader economy could not function.
Our economy is predicated on growth rather than managed contraction.
We could take several approaches to this.
1. Have a grown up discussion on how our economy works and what it means to add migrant workers to it.
2. Incentivise the local population to reproduce a lot faster.
3. Migrate to a wealthier economy with the same problem and become part of their solution!
The basic underlying problem is one where the government are not properly managing the consequences of necessary immigration by expanding public services like housing, schools, and healthcare to match the expansion of the population. As a result with services in constrained supply the race card is pulled out and the stress is blamed on a handful of brown skinned people crossing the channel, risking their lives to get here and fill jobs we need them to do.
Pp
Respect Bros
"The availability of those jobs is what is attracting people to come here"..
This is not the case..
We has a city the size of Bristols worth of unemployed from the EU alone all on the benefits.
Student visas from Nigeria 44,195 study visas were issued to Nigerians for the 2021/2022 academic session. But 60,923 dependents with them.
In the care sector lots of arrivals from Nigeria, Nepal, India etc who is doing the CRB checks? Is it even possible?
The notion that we is attracting skilled workers is pie in the sky... What is turning up is low skilled.
Interesting post pp, I do think a part of the reason for the falling birth rate though is that it is measured against all the population at a time when people are living longer. And the people living longer are not adding to the numbers of those reproducing. If you get my drift?
PickedpeckđđŸ
Spot on.
A well crafted post.
PS UK Birth rate is 1.6
whereas 2.1 is the required replacement rate.
Go to an NHS hospital anywhere in the UK and do a head count of staff born here vs staff that have been born elsewhere and have come here since.
In reality it doesnt matter what the skill level is either. We don't have enough natively born workers entering the jobs market to fill roles either with skill or without it. That doesn't make the job need less real.
For technology based companies this has often led to off shoring work as the supply and demand for skills means local workers are very expensive compared to many other locations with similar skills. Offshoring work is far worse for our economy than employing people here who then lay UK taxes on wages and expenditure.
PP
Respect
We were offering medical training placements to overseas candidates because our Govt would not fund the training here.
Foreign aid to India went to the maternity care. Well that work well as India now the most Populus country on the planet. Whilst we watch our own birth rate fall.
Mindset of retiring at 60-65 not helping many can still work and want to into their 80s.
89 still running a bakery and loves it
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g7jJrJULNPc
Work visas (including dependants), up 208,295 (+63%) to 538,887 in 2022
These are issued by OUR GOVERNMENT.
Pickedpexk
âGo to an NHS hospital anywhere in the UK and do a head count of staff born here vs staff that have been born elsewhere and have come here since.â
I believe quite simply it is because it is cost effective to employ people that are already trained and have the skill sets and these are nearly always going to be people not from our shores.Our governments (Tory and Labour) donât seem to want to spend money on training our own indigenous people, I suspect they see it as dead money wasted on a three? year course and non productive.
I also seem to remember that to be a nurse these days you need a degree as in the old days I believe people who had a vocation to be a nurse etc could train and sit exams and then become qualified.
If I have any of this massively wrong I am happy to be corrected.
it's absolutely nothing to do with training. my partner is a senior sister in an nhs itu and part time nursing lecturer at a university.
her department has ongoing critical staff shortages. the biggest problem has been staff retention, but also the ability to recruit. without nurses from 'elsewhere' her department would have to close more frequently than it does at the moment. yep, even now, with philippino, indian, spanish, and african nurses all employed there staffing is often too low to allow any new patients to be admitted to their itu. the next nearest one is 40 miles away. people die every day due to staffing issues, but our collective genius answer is to want to make the problem worse?
i'm a techie. ok, started as a data scientist and mathematician with a physics degree, but ended up as a c level exec running global teams with thousands of staff. i can tell you based on evidence and personal experience that despite offering crazy salaries and running training programs our inability to recruit and retain capable resource in the uk directly led to offshoring work to various other countries including india, the philippines, colombia and prewar ukraine. those were highly paid skilled jobs we were absolutely unable to viably fill in the uk, and the us and germany as it happens.
that last point is worth knowing. this is not a uk problem, it's a developed world problem. the same story is repeating across western europe and north america. it needs a proper grown up, non ******, pragmatic discussion on wtf we actually do about population dynamics in the context of a long term plan for the economy.
and it is still absolutely nothing to do with boats.
Wish people would stop bringing up those tired old NHS clichés.
The UK NHS receives a staggering $200b a year and has an astonishing 2 million staff. It's the 3rd best-funded healthcare service on the entire planet out of 200 countries, and it's the 4th biggest company on the whole planet among a world of 8b people. The NHS is not underfunded and not understaffed in any way whatsoever. Any national or local problems are entirely self-inflicted. Chaotic disorganisation by chaotic senior managers, and a culture of misery and self-loathing (deliberately) whipped up by the red unions.
What's more, UK NHS staff churn typically hovers around 5-15%, which is entirely in line with normal levels for the UK economy, and has been for decades. There is no staffing "crisis" whatsoever. Churn is a perfectly normal part of doing everyday business.
Please stop the tired NHS clichés.
Many nursing and medical students leave university after their 5 to 8 year's degrees, then do a few months placement training and then fly off to Aus or NZ , etc for better pay and lower hours. We therefore have spent all that money subsidising their education and training and they clear off to benefit other countries. Meanwhile we import medical staff (and lots of teachers too) from poorer countries around the world as our pay is more attractive than their countries. This will continue and we will need migrants as our population is ageing. Unless we pay care, teaching and medical staff better and improve their working conditions then home grown workers will choose not to do the work and qualified medics will go abroad for a better life. Also, people seem to be getting very confused between small boat "illegal" immigrants about 46,000 in 2022 as opposed to "legal" migrants given visas by our gov which was 1.4 million. The illegals held in hotels while their applications take years to process cost taxpayers 8M quid a day. The legal migrants are here to work (not claim benefits as is often stated) but the numbers are so high that our infrastructure can't cope - again because of under investment or wasted investment in public services. Anyone remember Dave Cameron back in the day saying we must get net migration down to the tens of thousands ??? But since then after 13 years of Tory government and since Brexit , luckily we have taken back control. LOL. The ambulances, NHS, GPs, dentists, schools, prisons, social care, rail are all a complete mess. Can't see LLOY or the UK economy doing much until all this stuff is properly addressed.
Why have i or we suddenly got so many ads on screen i can hardly scroll down ,had this problem a couple of months ago ,then ok for a while but now nearly impossible to use this site
Gazz
What if all NHS were Hamas sympathisers as a Jew you'd be r.a.cist.
Uncle Doug
âMany nursing and medical students leave university after their 5 to 8 year's degrees, then do a few months placement training and then fly off to Aus or NZ , etc for better pay and lower hours. We therefore have spent all that money subsidising their education and training and they clear off to benefit other countries.â
That doesnât surprise me now. Perhaps terms of the degree course should include a clause that you have to work âXâ many years in the NHS and then be allowed to leave and work elsewhere, be it here or abroad. If they wish to leave earlier than the agreed term of working they have to repay a proportion of the degree/training costs. It isnât difficult to overcome this problem.
Cookoo
If you search on Amazon & alike you let them in.
"why can't we talk about migration like grown ups?".......going on the animated discussion done the pub this lunchtime it seems if you mention a real concern about immigration some people consder you a ******...as ive said before even the most tolerant of people have had enough.....ps ive heard student visa dependents rules are changing jan 24 ..dont know the full details...gla
****** = r a cist
Dorfan
Perhaps terms of the degree course should include a clause that you have to work âXâ many years in the NHS and then be allowed to leave and work elsewhere, be it here or abroad. If they wish to leave earlier than the agreed term of working they have to repay a proportion of the degree/training costs. It isnât difficult to overcome this problem.
My Boss would not let me have my pass certificate that he paid for said if i wanted them i would have to refund him the money . Simple solution