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Hey guy, I'm currently thinking about investing in this company, I've watched it since its birth and been in and out of it. I've not kept my eye on it for a while as I have investments else where, can someone explain to me the company position and how the japex partnership is working and most importantly where and what people think is going to happen in the short-term. All opinions and information is greatly appreciated
Mrnaddy,
It is sensible to read the RNS' and make an objective decision on this
Someone's opinion could be subjective
Agreed, have a real of the last 12 month RNS’s. Probably 45 mins of reading.
Take a look at the latest investor calls on YouTube and make a decision.
Re Cove Energy, remember it well from the 9p days as Lapp Platts and sold within 3 years for 240p and a £1.2 billion valuation despite the dilution along the way. Major gas discoveries of Mozambique which were no more than exploration plays in an untested country but had some of these lookalike smaller discoveries already a long way away across a man made border ie Tanzania/Mozambique.
Re todays Hibiscus deal - What value for an early long life production asset as a DRO opportunity for LBE versus the below ?
Or as for Kertang - about 70 km from infrastructure and is a potential 1.5 billion boe recoverable prospect with the possibility of the other 3D covered prospects and shallow water play potentially taking that potential to 2.5 billion boe.
On a 10-20% interest post farmout we could be looking at a net play of 150 - 500 mmboe to LBE. I was using a low $3/boe figure with the potential for $450m/£350m of value for 150 mmboe if successful. Even on 120m shares it's around £3/share for that size.
I didn't buy into being a pure exploration play so picking up a near term producing DRO would be an ideal way to underpin the company.
Todays news - Hibiscus buying Block B, 85 km off Brunei (next door to Sarawak) which is the late life mature MLJ fields from Total Energies for $259.4m.
Production commenced 25 years ago in 1999.
Buying a net 24.2 mmboe 2P and 6.8 mmboe 2C as of 1/1/23 with 7,865 boepd production. (84% Gas).
2P cost = $10.71 per boe or $8.36 per 2P/2C combined and $32,980 per flowing boe.
Presentatation
https://ir2.chartnexus.com/hibiscuspetroleum/docs/Analyst-and-Fund-Managers-Briefing-Deck-Proposed-Acquisition-FINAL.pdf
June 14 2024 Reuters) -French oil and gas major TotalEnergies will sell its Brunei business to Malaysian independent exploration and production firm Hibiscus Petroleum for $259.4 million, both companies said on Friday. For Hibiscus, the appeal is in acquiring a well-established natural gas asset in a stable neighbouring country where the group hopes it can boost output. "We have been looking for the right opportunity to enter the Brunei energy industry for some time and ... the additional volumes from this transaction ... will provide an uplift of nearly 85% to our gas production," Hibiscus Petroleum Managing Director Kenneth Pereira said in a statement.
Hibiscus said it expects the asset to add 7,900 boepd of gas and condensate to the group's total production in 2024, with plans to improve performance over time by cutting operating costs and investing to slow the field's decline.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/TOTALENERGIES-SE-4717/news/TotalEnergies-sells-Brunei-unit-to-Hibiscus-Petroleum-for-259-million-46971804/
Maybe you should let LBE know as I'm not sure they are capable of identifying production opportunities themselves.
Why don't you Ash for all your continuous moaning ?
IIt would give you something else to do with your time and you could share it all with us here.
Would you say they are capable based on the last 5 years performance? Yes I'm moaning but yes i think I'm entitled having been sold a strategy which became a changed strategy that hasn't delivered!
Yes i beleive they are capable - more than capable.
For starters the likes of Petronas don't give over operatorship to companies if they don't beleive their credible. They are a credible team.
No matter what you think of the dissapointment or strategy, all the wells drilled in Norway were with excellent partners who also saw the potential in those wells. That's the nature of the game. If they had of come in alot better we'd be singing their praises. Every companys' presentation and adm doc is full of risk warnings, potential for dissapointment, dilution, change of strategy etc and there for a reason.
We can say all we like about them not finding or buying production assets for whatever reason - cost?, competition?, just look at the hassle/delay with these small two we have (that the other partners held and other partners bought into) with cost over-runs. If this had happened to a larger asset we could well be in a more difficult place right now so who knows?
I'm not usually an investor in out and out exploration companies other than small punts but see better potential this time around as production or near term production with exploration.
I held GKP in Algeria where they had decent production/reserves and they went all the way down from mids 40s float and caught me on the hop when they decided to exit Algeria where success was mediocre and went to concentrate on exploration in Kurdistan and down all the way to 7p and lower to 3p with nothing else to underpin it. I recall being down from 19p buy in prices and continued to add to the lows and got out over £3 while they ran on to over £4.
Cove was mentioned here (9p as Lapp Platts). I bought into them because they had minor production assets with the exploration upside - it ended up being the explo assets that gave the huge 240p payday and no longer needed to concentrate on production. There were investors who wanted them to hold a stake through to the gas production but after being sold in 2012 the asset is only now nearing development. Some of the same team have had little luck in their newer O&G venture.
Imperial Energy from 20-25p to £18 and bought out at 1250p was an exploration success in a hot spot . There were times when it dropped over 50%. The same CEO/owner wasn't able to achieve any meaningful success later in Paraguay/Argentina.
It's all about studying any company making asset such as Block 2A and an underpinning production or near producing asset of quality which i beleive we'll get.
At this price even with dilution, i still see this as extremely cheap and sometimes you have to see the potential from your own perspective, past experience on share price performance elsewhere rather than through the eyes of others who can rightfully feel dissapointed but that shouldn't cloud the potential where it now sits.
Who is “they” exactly? They’ve pretty much all departed. This is Longboat in name only. New personnel, new company, new focus. Are they worth backing at sub £4m mkt cap? Make your own mind up.
If only there was a bulletin board solely for the purpose of allowing AIM investors who are sitting on big losses and want to vent their rage incessantly. I think there'd be quite some demand. How about starting something like that, Ash? I'm sure you could generate some advertising revenue.
Give it a few months and you might be here venting with the rest of us :)
SAVV - I'd personally just sell up and move on to something I believed in. Been there before and managed to claw back every penny of losses and multiples more. I wouldn't waste my limited time on this earth getting frustrated, I'd spend it researching some other company.
Zengas, brilliant post.
I keep coming back to the same question, is this worth more than £4 Million? Kertang which is a world class exploration target at 9 Trillion cubic feet, Discovered resource bids entered with a JV partner, Independent Norwegian JV which will be generating revenue at some stage from 1000 boepd and (regardless of what others think) potential acquisitions of production and development opportunities in Norway.
Can I see this being valued at £0.40p (Mcap £22 million). Without a doubt, and that's why I'll continued to buy tranches as and when I can.
One thing I've been thinking recently is, is it best for LBE to sell down 50% of Norwegian JV? Current estimates based on what JAPEX paid us would be $10 million net paid to Longboat.
JAPEX have ambitions of growing Longboat JAPEX into a 15,000 boepd company, with JAPEX as the 75% stakeholder I'd suspect they would be inclined to push this agenda with more force. This then allows LBE to act more as a silent partner whilst keeping all the benefit of any progress in Norway.
Savv, I'm underwater here - who isn't? But venting and raging accomplishes nothing - it's a waste of time. And I'm too busy doing other stuff to be bothered wasting my time. Happy to hold here because I think it'll come good. If not, I'll move on.
You're speaking to someone who hasn't been venting or raging by the way. Being too negative doesn't help anyone. The same can be said for those who are too positive.