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The naysayer sat on the sideline commenting ridiculous statements of doom and I’m happy with my top ups between 7-7.5p.
‘This is my idea of a very good day out’
Impressive move but what value does high multi tcf target have on a £8million market cap with no cash worries?
Give it a few weeks and I expect this will be much higher
GL
I think this has at least 3x before fair value.
Multiples more once DRO is understood and PSC agreed and a CPR and farm out on Kertang.
57,000,000 states in circulation so £1 is a £57M Mcap to put it in perspective.
Shares in circulation*
On block 2A alone this should be at least 60p ( ie £35 million market cap) compared to peers. Not to mention the new exciting DROs. Looking forward to the agm.
A 100p anyone in a few months?
UPL have £40 million market cap today , they have no 3D, no cpr, no psc, no presentation on their project, less experienced management etc.
This is a steal at £10 Million market cap ( 17p)
Agreed, And I just published a video explaining it. If it doesnt have English subs on by now, they will be there soon enough
[LINK REMOVED]
[LINK REMOVED] how nice of LSE !
add this to a YT link: watch?v=UcisdvDMUdo
Should see 20p+ this week of not today.
The BOD here have a good reputation in that part of the world and am backing them fully having purchased over 600k shares under 10p average.
H2 should be exciting here with the farm out process on block 2A which has attracted the interst of majors and also the new DROs .
Agreed. Really looking forward to hearing Menzie at the investor presentation.
English subs are there
Jungmana
Both Cos offer good upside if successful but i have my cash steered to where it might offer the best returns on a success case plus something to underpin the investment which i've always seen as a must.
Upl 1.33 b shares in issue (with outstanding warrants circa 1.5 billion f/diluted) + $4.6m cash. M/Cap @ 3p = £40m
LBE 57.11m shares + $2.5m cash. M/Cap @ 16p = £9m.
But there's a glaring differential in upside potential for every $100m/£78m (£1/$1:28) of value created.
UPL = 5.87 p per share (5.2p f/diluted).
LBE = 136.5p (will stick my neck out and project us at future 100m shares = 78p).
Both chasing $500m+ worth of future value creation potential on a success case.
LBE have now been awarded a cluster of near term development discoveries (subject to final terms) which will underpin a valuation/fall back option at this £9m m/cap level.
I will love to hold a million shares here . That's my target and hopefully will do so soon once I get more funds by selling elsewhere.
Good post Zengas . I agree LBE has a lot more upside from this level. Also this is well ahead of upl in their projects as having 3D and psc granted.
Excellent opportunity at this level as i have a target of 50p to 100p by end of year.
And cpr due by end of month.
Onwards and upwards
Isn’t Lbe acreage offshore ? Any estimates how much drilling would cost in offshore? $20mn+?
Hang on a minute. Longboat raised £45m from shareholders for its Norwegian adventure and sold it for £2m. 95.6% value destruction. What an absolute shambles. I reckon they’ve done the dirty because Kveikje alone must have been worth more than that.
I hope some of you lot are right about the Malaysian assets - I’m very glad to see the back of Helge Hammer but a bit concerned that Nick Ingrassia remains involved with the new company. He orchestrated the failed exploration programme.
About $40-$50m well estimate.
When your target is 1.5 billion boe in a world class hotspot, this is cheap for the target involved given majors exploration budgets.
Also the CO2 potential is deemed very low given the methane measurements which could make it a much cheaper operated field compared to some that Petronas has with a higher CO2 content and make it highly sought after hence why i beleive the high interest. Shell, Connoco, Total etc among the nearby blocks.
Zengas your bang on the money with the estimate.
To put it in perspective though, Consider the Kjottkate (no idea if that is spelled correctly) well in Norway is targeting 30 million boe. And there are many wells in Norway being drilled at similar resource vs cost.
1.5 billion Boe prospective resource is cheap, cheap! Farm in will likely include cash and free carry if the CPR looks good. With the added benefit that TOTAL have moved into Malaysia with an acquisition and growth objectives to rival shell, I’d hope that would inspire a bidding war particularly since she’ll own the block next door. If they even suspect something interesting straddles the boarder of the block they’ll be wanting to ensure total didn’t get a free ticket into their exploration drill.
Hi Paul,
a failure in Norway for sure, however what if one of those wells had come in big style, then we'd be saying what a genius Nick I is? Equinor, DNO and other big players were invested in these Norwegian exploration wells also, and saw the upside.
The best use of that £45m was, it is turning out, establishing a presence in Malayisa and buying a majority stake in Kertang. This may end happily for you yet.
Comment from the CEO of total following the sale of mature assets in Brunei
‘This transaction fits with our strategy to actively manage our portfolio by monetising mature assets and to allocate our talents to the most promising assets’
They are hunting for monster fields in Malaysia
If anyone hasn't studied the latest Block 2A presentation - the Kertang 9 tcf mid case recoverable prospect is described as an undrilled giant and on slide 5 it is compared as analogous to Lang Lebah 5 TCF and Kasawari 6TCF. LBE include the reference to Lang Lebah - "Unravelling an abandoned giant" by Aquilah (Amir Jamalullail and others- The leading edge 2020)
https://longboatenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Malaysia-license-SK2A-extract-from-EAGE-presentation-January-2024.pdf
Yet in that article, Lang Lebah lay dormant for 25 years after initial drilling and it was only in 2016 that new 3D seismic and reprocessing was carried out and a new well drilled that made Lang Lebah one of the largest gas discoveries of 2019
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/343411866_Unravelling_an_abandoned_giant_in_Central_Luconia_Province_offshore_Sarawak_Malaysia_-_Success_story_of_Lang_Lebah
"Lang Lebah, located in block SK410B in the South China Sea, is one of the biggest gas discoveries off the Malaysian coast.
The Lang Lebah field is estimated to hold five trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of gas in place.
The field was discovered by the Lang Lebah-1RDR2 exploration well, drilled in March 2019 to a total depth of 3,810m. The discovery well encountered 252m of net gas pay in the Middle Miocene carbonate reservoir.
The Lang Lebah-2 appraisal well, drilled in January 2021, confirmed Lang Lebah as one of the biggest gas discoveries in the region. Drilled to a total depth of 4,320m, the appraisal well encountered more than 600m of proven net gas pay in the carbonate reservoir. The well test demonstrated a flow rate of 50 million cubic feet (Mcf) of non-associated gas a day. The Lang Lebah field is expected to come on stream in 2027 and will produce up to one billion cubic feet (Bcf) of gas per day." (165,000 boepd)
https://www.offshore-technology.com/projects/lang-lebah-field-development-sk410b-malaysia/?cf-view
Kasawari - "Discovered in 2011 offshore the Malaysian state of Sarawak, the Kasawari sour gas field is today a symbol of Southeast Asia’s energy challenge.
Petronas is eyeing next year for first gas. By 2025 it hopes to see 900 MMscf/D (150,000 boepd) flowing from the field to its sprawling Bintulu LNG export facility on the Sarawak coast.
The scale of Kasawari, found at a water depth of about 108 m (350 ft), is a result of its ranking as one of the most CO2-laden gas fields planned for development globally. When wells are flowing, it's expected that up to 40% of what will come out will be CO2.
New research from Rystad Energy suggests that the capital inputs required to add CCS to Kasawari will hike the project’s breakeven gas prices from roughly $3.50/Mcf to more than $5.00/Mcf. "
https://jpt.spe.org/what-you-should-know-about-offshore-and-sour-gas-ccs-high-cost-leak-mitigation-and-transportation
"Multiple large companies" in that area, Total, Shell etc
"The Company has recently commissioned ERCE to undertake a competent persons report ("CPR") to confirm the potential size and risk associated with Kertang, believed to be one of the largest undrilled structures in Malaysia. It is anticipated the CPR will be published at the end of June.
Following recent increased interest levels in exploration for world-scale fields, multiple large companies have approached Longboat regarding Block 2A. Having consulted with PETRONAS, the Company now intends to run a farm-out process during H2-24 to identify a suitable partner."
It’s a fair point Whirlaw and let’s hope this is the start of something a bit more exciting and productive.
The well cost is not an issue as those majors and super majors would not be there.
The Offshore players are Shell present in at least 7 blocks. (Also Petronas being Malaysian ). Total Energy in at least 3. Mubadala 2-3. Inpex at least 2, Connoco Philips 1.
They state majors re-entrering the region for big gas to LNG opportunities so on a positive it's good to see UPL state the gas potential.
Around 1 billion boe discovered in Malaysia in 2023 withn an 80% success rate.
25 exploration wells giving 19 discoveries.
More than half of the discoveries made in Sarawak waters.
It's the potential scale of Kertang alone and is an analogue of those two fields (Lebah, Kasawari in the previous post and others).
By comparison to Kasawari, the high 40% CO2 levels lift the break in having to capture/process that to over $30/boe. Kertang if low in CO2 as suggested could be a major prize with major cost savings.
A $50m well turning up 250-500 mmboe is maybe 10c - 50c per boe that's why we're able to get DROs because majors/large Cos aren't interested as they're too small below their threshold to bother.
People talk about offshore being cheaper to drill - yes in cases for wells but that's not the only factor. It's in the make-up/quality of the discovery should it be low or high api oil or condensate, things such as dangerous sulphur content (on land/populations), or gas etc C02 v methane levels and ultimately size as you can see from the output.
If it was so cheap then nobody would be drilling offshore where most of the stuff comes from.
Some offshore fields are substantially cheaper versus land and vice versa when all factors are considered. It's not down to the cost of a well.
There's a gas hungry energy market and absolute vast coal use to displace and Bintulu alone using 1.5 TCF/year.
100p is just 57 million pounds market cap. Imo is very achievable by end of this year even if we double the shares in issue along the way.