Listen to our latest Investing Matters Podcast episode 'Uncovering opportunities with investment trusts' with The AIC's Richard Stone here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
There is very little free float here and with the amount of buying we should start to recover soon. Looking forward to the AGM, dont think there has been a date published unless anyone knowns any different
Zebbo I believe the AGM will be on 27th June
All details should be in your dealing account, HL has a ‘shareholder meetings’ tab on the RHS on desktop site for voting/attending
Alistair Bruce selling imo caused most of the damage here. This should be 20p+( GBP12 million market cap) with the short term financial issues in Norway jv and without that hanging over our head, 60p+ imo would be realistic.
The market cap at GBP 4 million right now is extremely low .
AB has been reducing for a few months so agreed but this last RNS caused panic, personally I think this was an overreaction to a ‘worse case scenario’
SP should recover to better levels in the near term
Share price only recovers properly once its clear the plc is funded... and how much, if any, dilution is required.
Agreed Jungmana.
This was way undervalued even at £0.2 and a Mcap at £10 million.
For the assets we have a Mcap of £20-35 million is much more realistic price for right now. Which would be a share price £0.36-£0.62.
IMO Longboat need to be updating the market with revenue figures from Statfjord. Seen lots of companies release this monthly to remind the market the asset is brining in money.
CPR of Kertang, Farm out partner and drill date confirmed takes this to £50 million Mcap. DRO award in Sarawak is again a massive value propositions based off the DRO’s I’ve seen awarded previously which includes discovered fields and even fields that have current production.
Chicken and egg situation here.
Which comes first, the discounted horrendous placing to bridge a near-term cash deficit, then rally. Or a rally based on some of the asset possibilities that are mentioned here, then a partial knockback from a higher level placing?
I personally don’t see a placing here right now.
I think debt will be used to cover the short term deficit.
Really interested to hear what the board have to say on the 27th.
Worst case scenario (which I don’t foresee btw) is we raise a placing at let’s say 50 million shares. Taking us to 100 million’ish.
At that point, JV is self sustainable and generating gross revenue of approx $31 million a year.
Let’s assume the Mcap of £15 million on rerate (still well below fair value). That’s a share price of 15p or 100% from this abysmal level.
Given that there would have to be a rerate of the share price once funding is sorted and PI’s always get the crappy deal. Id suspect it would be a placing to institutions only and at a premium to the price right now. Maybe 9p-10p?
So 50,000,000 shares raised to provide £5,000,000 cash which in theory would cover the suspected short fall and a share price of minimum 15p.
Again personally I feel any funding will be via short term debt facility but if there is a placing. I’ll try to take part because it’s free money based off the rerate that would have to happen.
It will be an outrage if they go for a rights issue from here. The overspends were alluded to in the accounts when sp around 23p. So if that's what's required should have been done then. At.the very least it should have been tagged to that distress update RNS. A rights issue now after absolutely decimating sp would be disastrous dilution for long termers
If no rights issue, I feel sorry for those frightened into selling following that distress rns, which was low on detail but carried gravely negative vibes
Let's just say the BOD have done *ugger all to create a successful company, only the opposite.
If i remember correctly none of the exploration 'successes' to date has generated a beaming rns, with only Kveikje being one they were positive about but that being more of a satelite development tagged onto other company assets. Perhaps I've forgot one of the golden nuggets but the significant strategy change to primarily exploration all those years ago has been a disaster.
Let's be honest the share price is where it is for a reason!
What do you think the Mcap for a company like this is worth Ash?
Well when i was sold the company strategy and with the BODs experience, I was hoping much much more than what it is now after 5 years!!
Agreed, but just curious what you think we should be valued at right now?
I’d suspect it would be multiples of £4 million?
I thought it was worth multiples of £10m mkt cap before the update. Now, I'm uncertain and concerned. If there's no cash raise and we're not giving up all of jv, then worth multiples of current £4m value. If there's raise at a discounted price, then it's a different story...
Surely any theoretical raise would have taken place a month or two earlier, at around 20p, because the issues highlighted in the recent RNS had already been highlighted in the Annual Accounts Directors report back then.
Strange and damaging tactic by the company if not.
Whirl
I agree, I should have sold when I read . Serves me right , looked forward at production increases expected in June , which fail to materialise.
You could say Company has been deceivingly not be upfront but hiding info within AR instead but still my error for not acting on my gut then
In considering options to cover the working capital shortfall, as I mentioned before, the actual amount of shortfall is unknown to us, but as far as we can estimate, does not appear to be huge. A massively dilutive raise at these levels would be 'for want of a nail' territory imo. And while the major shareholders and directors (who together own a very significant proportion of lbe shares) might shore up their percentage holdings by shelling out for new shares, a placing would essentially write off their current investment. It does feel to me that its the least palatable option. Although I'm prepared to admit that it's most certainly the least palatable option for me, which might be colouring my thinking.
How low can we flippin go!
Nervous couple of weeks. I wish they'd just tell us now
5 pence placing anyone?
Some additional communications from the company wouldn't be a bad idea asap
They said in their last RNS "It is anticipated that Longboat will give a further update to the market around the time of its AGM at the end of June.". So news is coming shortly. The price fell today on apparently strong buying. All players can fold whenever they wish, but we already know we'll get updated before the end of the month.
Thanks Urraca, I'd missed that comment about update towards end of june. Cheers.
Fingers crossed it's positive and things start to look up..