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You don't announce a probable listing in Ethiopia later 'this year' without knowing that the project will all get signed off in due course.
Cannot understand the markets reticence here !
Robjm,yes and although we may think not alot happening it is clear that things are moving fast in Ethiopia not only to get TK up and running but the whole sector in the country.Normally miners have to struggle with host governments with nearly everything they do but here with kefi in Ethiopia the government could not be more aligned and helpful.Also some of the worlds biggest miners are actively now looking to come into Ethiopia which means the value of TK and the other licences there will rapidly increase in value and DEMAND.As for the listing in both host countries,it has to be a smart move to be where the money is and the sectors in both countries that will see exponential growth.
By the end of this year Kefi will look a completely different company and i predict will be trading many multiples higher than today.
Thanks Bear. Looks to me that its only a matter of time till kefi lists in both countries hubstar.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1050026/kefi-gold-executive-chairman-on-2023-milestones-and-progress-with-ethiopia-and-saudi-arabia-projects-1050026.html 5.44 minutes in also that Kefi is hand in glove with the Ethiopian government in promoting there stock exchange with a likely listing there sometime later in the year. Obviously the Ethiopian government see kefi and mining as crucial to their economy and was sounds like new money will be able to cover a expanded Ethiopian operation was a mention of bonds connected to listing in Ethiopia.
Some good insight from this interview today :-) Ethiopia is now moving quickly to launch the mining sector and Kefi is at the very heart of the action.To have such strong backing from the Govt on its first major mining operation is something that will bode well.Very important for the country this project gets launched!
Kefi executive chairman Harry Anagnostaras-Adams discussed the significant progress made on the company's projects in Ethiopia and Saudi Arabia in 2023 with Proactive's Stephen Gunnion.
Anagnostaras-Adams highlighted the Tulu Kapi project in Ethiopia, which has both banks, contractors, and local investors lining up for the signing. He also discusses the importance of this project to Ethiopia's economy, emphasising its role as the first industrial-scale mining project and the largest single export generator for the country. Anagnostaras-Adams underscored the socio-economic benefits, particularly in employment generation and trade balance improvements.
In Saudi Arabia, KEFI Gold's advancements are notable despite the different regulatory landscape. Anagnostaras-Adams explained the strategic partnerships and the proactive role the Saudi government is playing to prioritise mining. He mentioned that KEFI Gold has been a pioneer in this region, with over 15 years of involvement and significant discoveries.Discussing potential dual listings, Anagnostaras-Adams provided insights into the innovative steps Ethiopia is taking towards capital market reforms, positioning itself as a new hub for mining investments. In contrast, Saudi Arabia's approach is more conservative but equally promising for the future.
Robjm66,it was nice to see the company put out the figures yesterday on TK with the latest gold prices which equates to $1bn USD net cash flow to Kefi over the 8 years :-) and the possible seeking of a main listing in Saudi . Speaking of Saudi we are due shortly the latest drill results at Hawiah which will likely be a very good read.If we look at the bigger picture now there are large miners looking to get into both Ethiopia and Saudi Arabia,this means we are in the shop window for deals,joint ventures,or heaven forbid even a take over !
Things will hot up here very soon IMVHO
Https://newbusinessethiopia.com/mining/kefi-gold-releases-report-about-ethiopia-saudi-projects/
https://www.timesaerospace.aero/news/airports/ethiopian-inaugural-flight-lands-at-new-nekemte-gudina-tumsa-airport (should help kefi just fly out gold when producing)
https://eastleighvoice.co.ke/africa/51161/ethiopias-council-of-ministers-approves-key-banking-reforms
https://www.ft.com/content/8a3218a0-f02b-44ba-a669-c211eb113dfb (copper)
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/EAST-AFRICA-METALS-INC-49479164/news/East-Africa-Metals-Signs-Drilling-Contract-to-Initiate-the-Mato-Bula-Extension-Drill-Program-Targeti-46986646/ (Ethiopia mining)
https://myviewsonnews.net/ethiopia-gets-billion-dollar-success-in-coffee-exports/ (Ethiopia general)
https://www.miningweekly.com/article/chile-says-saudi-mining-minister-to-visit-lithium-expected-on-agenda-2024-06-18 (Saudi mining)
https://www.mining-technology.com/news/golden-mile-enters-deal/?cf-view (Copper)
Five,the idea of a change of broker and Nomad could be a good one,SP Angel appear to have done very little for Kefi if we are all honest.It is worth looking at a few snippets from today,note the £100m PA net cash flow to Kefi based on current gold and over 8 years that is near $1bn US Dollars :-)
In Ethiopia, with our partners and banks: our focus is now on successfully completing the Early Works at Tulu Kapi so that we can close the $320 million project finance package and launch Major Works in October 2024. Gold production would then commence in mid-2026. Tulu Kapi's projected net cash flow to KEFI's planned 80% beneficial interest is estimated at approximately £80 million per annum. At the current gold spot price of $2,346/ounce, KEFI's planned beneficial interest in the cash flow is estimated to be approximately £100 million per annum; and The end result will be the launch of Ethiopia's first industrial-scale mining project and its largest single export generator and, in so far as environmental, social and governance aspects are concerned, the project is designed to be in compliance with World Bank IFC Performance Standards, creating direct and indirect employment for 5,000 to 10,000 people. Our launch timing is fortuitously coinciding with the improved conditions in Ethiopia and the gold price reaching all-time highs and the S&P Global average analysts' long-term forecast now sitting at approximately $2,100/ounce on 30 May 2024. With a forecast All-in Sustaining Cost ("AISC") of approximately $900/ounce at that same gold price), Tulu Kapi's projected net cash flow to KEFI's planned 80% beneficial interest is estimated at approximately £80 million per annum. At current spot of $2,346/ounce, KEFI's planned beneficial interest in the cash flow is estimated to be approximately £100 million.
In Saudi Arabia, with our partner and bank: Jibal Qutman and Hawiah are enjoying very positive regulatory support as we assess the choices of development plans. Substantial drilling programmes at both projects over the past year have better defined the known Mineral Resources as well as discovering nearby deposits; and Given the expected expansion in resources, the ongoing development feasibility studies are focused on establishing the optimal start-up strategies and ultimate potential scale.
What do you guys think of a change of Nomad and Broker ?? i dont see if anything what the current arrangement has done for us.Would be far happier to see someone more pro-active and perhaps more experienced to reflect the strong position that Kefi now find themselves in.
PS - I really am warming to the idea of getting some sort of main market Saudi listing ,that is the arena where the regional money is and the matching appetite to invest.A Saudi Main listing of even just our Saudi assets would likely be worth more than double the current entire valuation of the whole company on Aim. Food for thought ??
NickE,the key point surely is that kefi have the "options at their discretion" ,there is no current urgent need for funds as they have just conducted a placing.However as i mentioned earlier when you are sitting on potentially more than $2bn of resources you have options on how to maximise value from the current lowly market cap.And also this can be done without being dilutive IMVHO. The other option could be a straightforward sale of say 15% to 20% of TK which is then added to the Saudi assets for say $100m ,this would enable a clear path for the future,pay shareholders a nice dividend,retain a huge percentage of TK,and have free funds to purse growth and even new assets.
To list on the main Saudi index would mean an issue of an additional 30% shares for either Kefi or GMCO to meet the criteria.
On the more NOMU – Parallel Market. it's 20%
https://www.saudiexchange.sa/wps/portal/saudiexchange/listing/become-an-issuer
It would mean significant dilution but they have to resolve the funding gap by some means. I still think it would be worth listing on the main market and perhaps they wouldn't have to issue shares with the AIM share price as the reference but I suspect they would and then potentially very significant share price appreciation should start post listing.
The alternative is to await TK funding sign-off and then do a farm-out which would lead to a decent share price uplift and then list. With a farm-out the funding of ARTAR would be resolved and then the 20%/30% dilution less justifiable. I would prefer the first option of listing on the main Saudi exchange and then Kefi can keep hold of all of the 80% stake in TK and also fund Saudi etc.
Some shareholders won't like either option but, in my view, these are the only two viable options that solve the current predicament. I think they are much more preferable to continued discounted placings on AIM and it's clear HAA recognises this.
Either option that results in a well-funded company with valuable assets and the funds to add to these assets via explorations should ultimately add significant value.
I agree rob,it is the Aim market that is the issue,if Kefi can create a new listing in Saudi with say 10% of TK alongside the Saudi assets they could raise a hefty amount IMO.
Although AMAK are actually producing and have a value of more than $1.5bn,their actual asset base is on a par with Kefi so there is scope here for us to raise huge relative sums and have a listing on a market where there is an appetite for large investments into these countries and sector is very high.The more i think of this the more it makes sense,it is quite possible they have some super rich potential investors wanting to invest but cannot with us being purely listed on Aim.So in essence we can rapidly progress everything much faster and more profitable if we take this route.
Well the company will want to highlight the backing of the Syndicate and any progress on TK think shareholders will appreciate that. As for Aim its dire and has been dire for years. Maybe would make sense to move out of Aim and just list in Ethiopia and Saudi short or long term as Saudi is where the money is and increasingly the mining world. Easier now to trade now on foreign exchanges anyway.
Would expect some news on Saudi before the AGM.
Robjm66,we have just had the fundraise so that is out the way,i noticed in todays statement that they are organising the AGM to time with key meetings in Ethiopia with partners and key financiers in a few weeks time :-) In ref to a potential dual listing it could be a super way forward,we also know that the Saudi,s are now doing deals in the country and have joint governmental agreements as regards business and investments.If we tie all this together is harry giving us a clue that he has some very tasty offers on the table but they do not want it tied into an Aim listing ?? Kefi valuation on the Saudi exchange would be multiples of current cap,that is why i say expect some significant newsflow leading up to and around the time of the AGM in a few weeks time.
Rob - harry could easy put something together for a Saudi listing maybe combined with Artar and it could get quite a high valuation compared to AIM.Have to remember we have 80% of TK that will be valued over $600m once the final bank signs off,and we have 25% of what could turn out to be the top one or two asset portfolios in Saudi Arabia.
Think its got to the stage where the company will have to come off the fence and make some choices as going to have The Ethiopian government on one hand and Artar on the other pushing for faster and faster progress.
I can actually see that happen,if we can get into a market listing on exchange where things are valued correctly we may even see two or three times current listing value ( and pre-production ). I am liking this
The last point is just pure guesswork.....
Robjm,the point is that Kefi have those options and are in a strong position now to do something on those line should they wish,perhaps our chairman has just given the clearest clue yet that he has investors wanting in on our assets and will facilitate some sort of arrangement where they can come in.
There could be something being lined up that takes all our assets up a LEVEL imvho with a rich backer.
I like this RNS today there is nothing bad in there,if they could get some dual listing on a market that actually puts a proper value on things it can only be a positive.And from what i see we have multiple options here,there is much money in Saudi and stands to reason they would put backing behind Saudi based projects.I like this alot !
Rob, I agree that the best scenario by far would be a dual listing in Saudi. HAA did rule it out a few months back referencing that no junior miner was listed there amongst other unspecified complication issues. He also mentioned that it would be much easier to list in Ethiopia and the relevant body for the new exchange and even asked Kefi if they would list.
I wonder if he is revisiting the potential for a Saudi listing via GMCO. The issue will be that there will have to be some stock made available for an IPO and how much would both Kefi and ARTAR have to relinquish to satisfy the market requirements for free float? Secondly, is ARTAR willing to go down that route?
It would be easier if Kefi listed itself and almost certainly the dilution would be well worth it for shareholders given it would resolve funding issues and the stock would get a significant re-rating. Given the wording that the structure of GMCO is being appraised for mutual benefit, that does perhaps imply a GMCO potential listing. That would be a game-changer if that happens. I don't see a farm-out for TK until funding is formalised as anticipated in September as Kefi wouldn't get an optimum price right now, but that would also resolve funding issues.
Well going to be a test Fantasy Hubstar which projects are going to be JVed or have farms in and at what price and with what partners?
Does kefi give away some future revnue from TK for cash now? Does Kefi have one major partner maybe Saudi at company level or just still partners at project level maybe with some exploration help? Might it make sense to list in both Saudi and Ethiopia? There are tax benefits to having a HQ in Saudi and a commitment to dual list in Saudi might help Kefi get one of those exploration grants the Saudis are going to hand out on the other hand the Ethiopian are opening up their markets to foreign investment?
As for Amak i did point out that as it was happening to harrys annoyance.
Robjm,actually when we consider that the market currently offers a zero valuation for our Saudi assets,the possible listing of GMCO maybe tied in with ARTAR on the Saudi exchange would be a smart move.To give an idea of what value can be attained we need look at AMAK who have the closest asset base to us in terms of size (maybe they smaller ) and they are valued at $1.5bn+ . Everything is now starting to look rather rosy to say the least !
HAA can either step up or he can leave.. :)
Hubster while I can see how kefis share price should naturally narrow the gap over time sometimes you have to throw the market and shorter term investors/traders some red meat which is best done in my view by a Saudi Dual listing seeing what happened with Amak.
Think Harrys mindset is bit old fashioned and often gives the impressn he does not understand the traders or want to understand them. Its one of the reasons the share price has such a big disconnect to kefi underlying assets. Most people here are here to make money when Harry thinks he is here to build mines.
Its Ironic that now Harry will have to step up and do some deals and get some headlines so Kefi can transition to a Mid cap miner.