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The only thing that really matters at the moment...
'Cmon Roan.
I now presume we won’t hear about Roan until the July update. Fundamentally it feels as though the parts didn’t arrive on time and this will be hidden in the update because, hopefully by then, they will have arrived and 2025 targets will be announced?
Sumo,
My opinion is they would need to update their year end guidance if Roan was further delayed. This is one aspect of the comms which has improved under Neal and I would expect a communication if there was a material change to end of year forecast production.
I could be wrong of course but hope not!
ATB
Northern
A fair summary sumoskier. Also may see that the placing was really valuable in filling the money at hand gap caused by Roan delay ( don't mention cash flow.I mentioned it once but I think I got away with it). It will all be history soon, fingers crossed.
Hi All
Everyone knows that JLP like making announcements on a Thursday,
I have stated before that I think something big is going on in the background which has meant a news blackout.
I remain convinced that is why RBC was invited to get involved and IRH and JLP are doing a deal either with Chambisi
or Zambia but maybe not SA.If Roan was on track they would say so in an RNS, if Roan was NOT on track they have a duty to say so. They peace is deafening
I take your point Edzi, but remain to be convinced. If there was something big and bad they would have to disclose it, and would have done by now. If something big and good is smouldering in the background (as you suggest), there would be no reason not to give an update on Roan. I was wondering (hopefully) if they are busy concluding another small miner offtake agreement to fill up the remaining 40% capacity at Roan and wanted to package it all up together. But regrettably I suspect this is just frustrating time slippage due to logistic and/or beaurocratic problems which will eventually be sorted.
Edzi,
I know there has been a lot of talk around Chambishi but there maybe another alternative. Horizon Mining who we did the deal with for the tailings at Kitwe apparently own a "refinery that produces LME primary cobalt metal and copper" under Copper Tree Minerals www.zccm-ih.com.zm/investments/mining-assets/copper-trees-minerals-ltd/.
I don't know the capacity etc... but could be an alternative.
ATB
Northern
In the mean time someone (I only hope in the know) is picking up lots of shares at 7p.
There is definitely a buyer for more than 150000 shares which is what is bid
Question is where are they coming from. The mms obviously have a stock of them to sell.
There were 7 mollion ish shares and options. My count of large round numbrr sells is now at 6 million. Can't be sure of the origin of sells. But the last 5 days is aproaching the warrants and options number. Make of that what uou will. Selling pressure soon to dry up?
It looks like it's being managed Kalan.
.......or perhaps not !!
Lots of trading at 7p
Gives a measure of comfort that good news will follow
Good morning everyone,
Roan should have the part fitted, commissioned and well on its way to ramp up to nameplate capacity by now otherwise they would have told us it isn't. Wouldn't they?
Who knows with these lot. If it’s up and running they should be shouting about it. If it’s not then they should let investors know.
So either way, it’s pee poor. Which is the norm
Tg5
This is the constant conversation in my head lol.. If they say in July that there was a further delay and we missed 2024 guidance, but we are now running at full capacity, how would everyone feel.. that's where I think we are
If it was bad news and it isn't up and running then they have a duty to report it. If it was good news and Roan was commissioned on target then they should be shouting it from the rooftops.
As they have done neither my feeling is it is somewhere between the two possibly struggling to get the grades like they did with the tailings fiasco but who knows all speculation as they never tells us which leaves them open to all sorts of conspiracy theories shockingly bad communication as always nothing has changed.
Even the 3rd quarter figures how hard would it have been to put the gross margin financial figures in must be far too complicated for them to work out. IRH deal was supposed to be a fast track with copper modules or is Roan operating part of IRH due diligence.
Investor relations non-existent nobody ever gets a reply must be a permanent bank holiday in that office.
Good job we have chrome.
Since mid May JLP has dropped around 20%. What Leon fails to understand that if he releases an update now saying there are issues ( water, electricity, painting, logistics or which ever excuse he chooses) the share price will probably fall another 20% like last time. Might be short lived but will definitely drop on pure frustration.
So it seems he is taking an alternative route... and that route is to stay quiet. Which in my opinion is not good because we've already had a big drop on no news. He should of just updated the market on the 1st of June and we probably would have started making a recovery
.. but alas.. not to be. The problem is obviously worse than they anticipated . Three weeks now..
HD
A bit like the England game last night, It’s what is commonly known as a s**t s**w
Tg5
Agree Happydays they have previous form for staying quiet when things not quite as they expected.
I think they covered themselves for further delay by saying" on current schedules" so they see no reason to update us at this time. My guess is the parts were delivered after the scheduled time and they will give us a copper production update with the July results. An update now may just say delivery was delayed, fitting being completed, we'll let you know some figures when we've shoved stuff through the updated plant. Not inspiring is it? So better to wait for some figures? All speculation which is everyone's point I suppose. No info leads to gossip.
Hi All
Read all your posts with interest May I say, Leon has never been really interested in the SP,even Colin when I spoke to him said we don't look at the SP as if the business is good it will look after itself. Most CEO's of public Companies are not driven by the SP unless they have a bonus attached to it. We are all surprised with what is going on, there is definitely something going on in the background. Neal when he spoke said the Comms is very important to him now he is in charge which goes against what is going on, maybe they have decided that they have come to a crossroads where they need more help financially to expand at the rate they want to so they need to partner up, or the bloody thing has not worked out like they thought so they must do what every other Company does in that situation, put yourself on the market.
Who knows, just trying to work out reasons for a news blackout as it really does not make sense.
Happydays. When you say JLP has lost 20% of its value since mid May you are correct but we are still tracking the PGM index. If you compare with SLP they are fairly identical, that has lost 15% since mid May. Maybe we have lost a little more (5%) due to speculation and disappointment but we have not had selling that warrants the fall on its own.
Yes its very poor comms. HD summarises the double jeapordy of silence and then bad news. So in July, no matter what good news is in the periodical updates, it will be shoved to one side by headline grabbing delay and misses (assuming we dont update before that)- that could and should have already been released to the market.
You can say its Neal's job to do comms, but this is Coetzers long term weakness and on form, when things have gone well, they RNS commissioning and getting to nameplate capacity throughput -so LTH and the market will interpret the silence as bad news.
I interpret the silence as disdain for JLP owners and a feeling of unaccountability in our BoD that needs addressing at the AGM in more than words alone.
I'm surprised nobody seems to think the power crisis in Zambia might be playing a part here. We know that Jubilee had got themselves on the priority list for power supply but we don't know if they have been affected by the loadshedding that's been affecting the country.
I'd like to think that they learned their lessons from the power crisis in South Africa and have installed backup power at Roan and Sable, but we don't know for sure. If they are having to shut down the Roan plant every day for load shedding then ramp up could take much longer to achieve. I'm not saying this is the case, just throwing out another possibility like everyone else is doing!
One positive I saw yesterday is that Ndola Energy Company has restarted a power plant (just down the road from Roan) which will contribute to the national grid.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/ndola-energy-resumes-operations-boost-zambias-ixm2f/