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Hopefully we should have these mid July ish
I wonder if manana is now arriving for JLP, well at least in the next month!
I'm sure they will be very busy. Manyana is mainly for us.
Has anyone done a calculation for full year results? My calculations put us broadly in line with last years numbers. I’d been hoping that we would improve on last year but the delays in ramp up at at Roan have squashed that.
Lets hope they make a big thing about projections for next half. They should just have enough info to go on.
Seis, I wouldn’t disagree. I am expecting a small increase but not enough to trouble the scorers. However, i am expecting the last quarter to be a lot better than the first quarter, which bodes well for next year, with Roan and the new chrome modules to kick in.
Did anyone get a copy of the updated broker note after the annoucement earlier this week? Behind a paywall unfortunately so couldn't get access.
Similar opinion to Mikey in terms of results but should be showing an upward curve in H2 in comparison to H1. May also depend on if they have used the third party PGM processing capacity. This may not look great from an accounting profit perspective but might be used from a cash management angle.
ATB
Northern
Mornin All
To be honest this F/Y doesn't really matter because of all the delays, Yes the projections for next F/Y are very important
my fear is that all the new units being put at Monkoyo and other places will suffer the same delays as Roan because of the problem with time lines for production or customs.
I am also a bit perplexed when I look at the buys(if they are buys) yesterday and we go down and down again today for no real reason. Is it the MM's playing games? or are they sells
Mikie, I’m using the bottom end of the revised copper target and assuming that not all of what’s produced will be sold before year end. Pessimistic or realistic… take your pick!
Here it is Northern:
"Project Roan – the large plant capable of feeding Jubilee’s Sable cathode – concentrate plant has been bult and is now being commissioned with full utilisation expected in July 2024. Although delayed this is a perfect test bed for the roll out of similar plants as part of the LG project with Abu Dhabi based IRH – Jubilee’s partner in this project. Jubilee also announces the tying up of two more copper open pit projects to supply copper ore for upgrade with a total of $3.6m being paid by way of the issue of 36.2m Jubilee shares. Project “M” is set to produce 25ktpm grading 3-4% copper (due online in Q3 CY24) – Jubilee will own 95%. Project “G” will produce 20ktpm grading 3-4% copper (due online in Q4 CY24) – Jubilee will own 51%. Both these new projects, together with existing ore sources, should see Jubilee produce up to 25kt/yr of copper in cathode/concentrate. 16kt through Sable (mostly cathode) with the rest, at the moment, for sale within Zambia. This will make Jubilee a flexible producer of scale.
WHI View: We applaud Jubilee’s effort in securing additional feed in Zambia. With its own production capacity due to be filled and some material available for sale, presumably in Zambia, it creates even more impetus, in our opinion, for Jubilee to sort out additional processing facilities so it can secure the value upgrade to copper for itself. We will put all our forecasts under review pending this data as we assess its implications. "
Edzi, I disagree that this years numbers don't matter, the market has yet to appreciate the impact of the Thutse chrome expansion on the bottom line so I think it is important in that regard, especially with two more modules on the way.
Seisnav,
I have this years gross margin slightly better than last year mainly down to the increase in chrome output. Would have had a better idea if they had put some figures out in the 3rd quarter with the gross margin in as I think chrome will have improved for the second half of the year compared to the first half.
It is possibly we might not see the final figures until August as they may want a little more time with Roan to give a better update there.
Interestingly Seis, the share price is in a similar range to end of full year 23. Im guessing from that, the market agrees the figures wont be much different. But this would suggest, there’s absolutely no premium built into the share price for whats about to come! For new investors turning up now, this has to be one hell of an opportunity.
Mikie
Next years expected chrome and pgms will underpin the sp at a higher value than what we are at today. How high will depend on the chrome margin the pgms don't make that much difference with small fluctuations in price.
And then there is copper on top.....
Seis, Northern, that broker note just reinforces they plan to build a refinery at Roan. Makes perfect sense. I wouldn't be surprised if they dont have shovels in the ground by year end.
Gray, i believe, maybe i should say hope, but i think the 4th quarter margin for chrome will increase a fair bit, based on the chrome increases. Obviously this will be restricted by fixed margin contracts, but where Jubes has purchased the reef, i would expect the increase to go straight to the bottom line. Obviously this will result in future purchases/ contracts being more expensive, but must be a sweet spot at present.
Mikie, intuitively my preference would be to update an existing refinery if possible as would shorten the timescales and potentially be lower risk and lower capex. However, a new facility would probably be state of the art and tailored for the required feed sources. Good job we have some good process engineers in the company.
Thanks for posting Seisnav, much appreciated.
ATB
Northern
You would think so Northern, but Roan has the land. More importantly, i believe has the power and water in place. Also transport from Roan would be neglible. Maybe makes more sense than you would ghink?
They will also benefit from economies of scale. I was so disappointed we didn't get any financials with the 3rd quarter output would have given us a much better idea where the margin was. It was $23/ton in the second quarter and I agree would expect it to increase in the third and fourth quarters.
Gray, the results presentation where Leon and Neal presented gave some good indications on toll processing vs own feed percentages and what to expect going forward so maybe a good reference point.
ATB
Northern
I would like to know whether the recent contract renewals for toll processing are at a much wider margin? If not, can’t see the point of wearing equipment out for pretty much nothing?
I saw the presentation at the time so don't remember that much about it now don't recall them putting any numbers to it but I am a bit old school Northern. I like to see actual numbers.
Dont forget the free carry on PGM’s Sumo. Maybe not mind blowing now, but all add up and are predicted to rise in value.
Had another look at it Northern and the only thing I can see which gives an indication of potential margin is the comparison between half year 2023 and half year 2024.
First half FY2023 was $5 gross margin but the split was 31% own sourced/69% fixed margin.
First half FY2024 was $17 gross margin split 41% own sourced/59% fixed margin.
Chrome prices have improved from 2023 to 2024 and the fixed margin should drop to 40% so there is more uplift in the margin to be had but difficult to see predict what that will be without actual figures each quarter. Only thing it shows is fixed margin is very small.
Just to add to my last post own sourced was only 293k tons for the half year when we are producing 2 million tons then 1.2 mill will be own sourced and 800k fixed margin so we should be producing double own sourced we produce now.
We will produce around 800k fixed margin this year so that won't increase as opposed to a significant increase in own sourced material.