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Kenj,
Owning 51% would make them a Majority Shareholder and they could replace the BoD, re-schedule meetings etc and negotiate direct with the lenders.
I doubt they will go down this route though.
I suspect when the dust settles they may try and negotiate a slightly better deal than the current proposal before voting down the deal and litigation if it came to that.
You are missing the point Feileb,
If the deleveraging plan is rejected by shareholders on 15th March there will be no Interserve. The company will have been pre-packed just like Mouchel.
It is irrelevant if Coltrane hold 90% of the voting shares. They cannot use their votes to deselect the BoD until 26th March EGM. The refinancing will have either been completed by then, or the administrator will have taken over the company.
Kenj - I think you are right, the horse has bolted for Coltrane. The threat of litigation has little teeth if the company goes into administration as there won't be a company to sue. I suppose they could go after the likes of Rothschild. A NY hedgie vs one of the biggest, richest and oldest institutions in the world. Good luck with that one
I think I might sell my current holding and buy in at 15.3p if deal is approved. The risk is certainly too greet here now.
Agree Meta the EGM is irrelevant now, as the the deal would have been voted on way before then.
Even if the deal is appproved the lenders will own the majority shares anyway, so BOD will not be voted out.
Guys can someone please confirm what I loose if I cash out now? As my average is £2 I stand to lower my average by selling out now and using the money to buy back in at 15.3p. As we are already pass the ex date of 26th, what do I loose apart from 90% of my money.
Bill. A £56k loss is way to much. This is AIM and the SP might rise before the meeting
This is one Co that could have litigation issues and from the past so no surprise to myself that this could fold to mitigate the exposure, hearing some issues from employees.
Why the deep analysis of a dysfunctional business - this is pure gambling with Sharks involved.
Gazza- yes it’s a big loss £63k but I don’t see much of a rise between now and then. Even if there is I’ll only be a couple of grand better as my average is £2. This will never reach £2.
If I sell now I get to cash out now at 22p I will get £770. assuming the deal is successful I get to buy 50000 with my £7700.
Add in my initial investment of 70000 my average will stand at £1.4 so 60p lower. Still way to high since this will never go past 40p ever again with 3bn shares in issue.
Or am I missing something?
I
Bill. Flipping eck. I feel for you. You’re not missing anything. I think I would look at selling and researching smaller SP shares to try and recoup the loss.
Kenj
We are asking the question who is buying the shares now. At this moment in time. Today. Tomorrow. Prior to 15th March.
It won't happen (as I said) but the point I made is still valid.
If tomorrow Coltrane increase their holding to 51%, then forget the current deal, forget all planned meetings, forget the 15th March. That is a different future, that would not happen in those circumstances. Coltrane would deselect the BoD at 5pm tomorrow evening.
You are getting mixed up with the current EGM which the current BoD have organised conveniently to be later than the present deal.
But as I previously said (this is all irrelevant) Coltrane will not increase their holding to 51%.
Hopefully you can see the point was not missed.
Gaza- yes hence I would buy in at 15p or 10p even with the money
Bill,
Sorry for the position you are in.
If you are asking for advice for what it is worth.....
In your position I would sell first thing in the morning (take the hit).
In my opinion the SP will eventually drop to 15p or there abouts. Then buy back in lower your average.
Hope a deal gets through then over time you have a realistic chance of the SP doubling and I would sell out totally at 30p looking for different investments where you spread the risk (and in a different sector).
I will probably be totally wrong and never saw the bounce back to 20p plus today coming? So who knows where this goes tomorrow....
But in your position that is what I would do.
Feilb- can I still buy the preemptive rights if sell? Assuming I can since the ex right date was the 26th.
Sorry, i'm not totally sure you would need to check this yourself.
But why would you need to buy preemptive rights in their deal?
If they are going to issue 3bn new shares at 15.3p, I can't foresee any scenario of the Share price being above 15.3p bearing in mind that's 95% of the total shares.
You will still be able to buy as many shares as you want at 15.3p or below.
By selling now at 22p you would significantly increase your holding and lower your average Imo.
"If tomorrow Coltrane increase their holding to 51%, then forget the current deal, forget all planned meetings, forget the 15th March. That is a different future, that would not happen in those circumstances. Coltrane would deselect the BoD at 5pm tomorrow evening."
Feileb,
I suggest that you read my last three posts again, as you still do not appear to get it. What you have said imo is completely wrong. Read my 18:47 post, and then explain to me the process whereby Coltrane can stop this deal.
Bill, As you held the shares on the date the rights were allocated you are entitled to buy them in the OO.
So, yes you are entirely correct you can buy them back cheaper. Further you can leave it to a few hours before the deadline to decide whether you want to or not, so if the price drops below 15.3p you can buy them in the market cheaper.
Kenj, The point of acting as a concert party holding in excess of 51% of the shares, is that the Board are responsible to the shareholders. The Board were asked for an EGM by Coltrane. Under LSE rules, this has to take place within 20 days. The date proposed by IRV exceeds this. Maybe this was with Coltrane's agreement, maybe not. If I were a shareholder I would be quite concerned about the actions of the directors and the conflict of interest which has only been recently declared around their employment contract.
Coltrane's proposal is not that much different to the lenders. One offers £75m cash injection, the other £110m. To reject it out of hand without seeming to fully engage (according to what Coltrane says in the press ) seems odd. All imho you understand.
The questions remains. Who is buying? any why? I don't personally believe it's Coltrane putting a concert party together. I think there's something deeper going on.
Thanks for the confirmation and support to both CC and Feileb.
Kenj
I not sure how to explain this any clearer.
You seem to believe the only date the BoD could be deselected is the date the BoD have set - the Coltrane meeting post deleveraging deal.
If you read the posts from the start you will see that the posts are not discussing Coltrane taking up shares through the current deal.
They are talking about Coltrane becoming a Majority Shareholder and dismissing the BoD.
There would not be a vote!
If you believe in this situation the Lenders would just file for administration without listening to a proposal from Coltrane you are deluded.
Getting bored of this, as it will not happen anyway!
"The questions remains. Who is buying? any why?" I agree it is unlikely, very unlikely to be Coltrane as if they go over 30% share ownership they would have to make a takeover bid at the highest price they have bought shares for in the last 12 months. Potentially 120p. So who else, the volumes we have seen today look more than just PI's. But what II would be mad enough to speculate on a company that has just reported terrible results and put forward an absolutely barking deleveraging plan (complete with a lengthly risk register)? I still wouldn't dismiss it being an II having a punt. Coltrane have stated that they don't believe that the balance sheet to be bad as IRV make out (which is mad) so maybe other IIs are kidding themselves too?
CC2015
Good point about the 20 day Lse rule for the EGM (I wasn't aware of that).
I cannot imagine Coltrane agreeing to put the date back as it is in direct conflict with their interests.
The statement by Coltrane today suggesting litigation also backs this up.
And as stated I agree I cannot see Coltrane buying up 51% of shares. But someone is buying.......
Usually you can see an upside and downside but I just currently cannot see any upside?
Would it suit all the lenders to de-list Interserve. I ask this because we have a mixture banks & emerald?
Could any please clarify the difference between ‘record date’ and ‘ex-entitlement date for open offer’. Is the ex date when the share purchase needs to be settled by?
I purchased shares on the morning of the 25th and been stelled today 27th, therefore would I be eligible for the OO? Thanks
Meta
Coltrane said that Interserve had not let their advisors have any access to information or respond to questions so agree, I cannot see them or any other II having a punt.
A strange thought maybe, but could the Lenders be positioning themselves?
I mentioned the timing of the EGM yesterday. The rules are the date had to be set within 21 days, with the meeting happening within 28 days of the request. This makes it 6th March the latest.
How IRV managed to come up with 26th March is beyond me. Do their £76m advisors know how to add up.
"You seem to believe the only date the BoD could be deselected is the date the BoD have set - the Coltrane meeting post deleveraging deal."
Feileb, yes that is exactly what I believe. Board members are selected and deselected at Board meetings, or at an AGM or EGM. The board must respond to a call for a meeting by any shareholder holding 5% or more of the company shares. Should they choose to cave in when someone waves 51% of the shares under their nose, then that as I understand it, is their choice. However, if they choose to observe due process and call a vote, then that is their right. And IRV have cynically called Coltrane's EGM for after the refinancing EGM.
The other thing to bear in mind is who owns the company. With Net Debt of £631m, and IRV's market cap of £31m, it is the banks and lenders who effectively own the company. I don't like what is happening here either, but when you carry large debt, the banks are the ones who are really in charge.