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imo, whatever the ST SP variations, this will rerate soon. you cannot have a spod market in rerate mode and we stay down here.
NAV must rise to the top eventually. Even the most ardent critic must agree. current SP is madness. no ramping just pure raw numbers
clearly mkt thinks different. this SP action lost on me. clearly something afoot I don't know about
if anyone knows something factual feel free. factually spod prices up
40% of trades today automatic trades, many at 21.4 price range earlier. Yesterday had large number of autotrades as well, also at 21.4. Volumes also haven't been low, so doesn't feel like an artificial drop to me. All seems to support what some others have said about there being a persistent seller offloading at these prices, keeping sp down.
Not a shareholder here yet, but I’m watching this carefully and I’ve got to say this is a bargain being overlooked by the market at the minute.
Hoping to get a chance to buy in when funds are free and would be a no brainer at these levels. I would suggest patience to all those holding here, great company with a great resource.
I don't think anything is a no brainer where expending hard earned funds is concerned (I'm just not a fan of the term nothing personal), however I can't see you getting a better entry than this. no advise and GL
Some basic info:
IRR lithium project: SPODUMENE [not lithium carbonate/hydroxide]
Resource Size: 14.5 Mt @1.3% Li2o with "Significant exploration upside" per IRR presentation.
IRR Selling price for spodumene SC6: US$650/t.
Cash US$28m.
EBITDA: US$105m @US$650/t selling price for spodumene SC6
Piedmont JV 50% US$102 Million - Piedmont will pay the FULL CAPEX for IRR +all expenses, technical etc in stages.
IRR info: FAST TRACKING
Mkt Cap: £118m @20.72p
--AUSTRALIAN AUCTION RESULTS FOR SPODUMENE date 14 Sep 2021-
PLS of Australia issued an RNS/ANN to state their spodumene achieved US$2,400/t for SC5 and US$2,500 for SC6. Macquiare reported on PLS and said that PLS*s EBITDA would jump given the last price for EBITDA SELLING PRICE WAS US$900/+ achieved, now US$2,400 SC5 and US$2,500 SC6.
So, too for IRR*S EBITDA - selling price in study US$650/t vs US$2,500 SC6 14.9.21 auction if one follows what Macquarie said for PLS? That could potentially be NEARLY 4 TIMES MORE.?
FINNISH LITHIUM PROJECT, NT,Oz [SPODUMENE, not lithium carbonate/hydroxide]
The co*s share price jumped 27% and then a bit more the next day. The Australian Stock Exchange wrote to the co to ask if there is info that is NOT in public domain. The co replied on 15.9.21 that they are one of the few next lithium producers to come [Reason 1]. Reason 2: Another Oz co*s auction results as above on 14.9.21. Reason 3: The co will make an INVESTMENT DECISION and PRODUCTION could be then END 2 0 2 2 . So, from 15.9.21 to end 2021 is another 3 mths plus and then 1 YEAR. So, for SPODUMENE, the PRODUCTION DATE is not 3-4 yrs as posted on the forum as there could have been confusion over spodumene and lithium carbonate/hydroxide which takes longer. This co*s MKT CAP: A$700 MILLION /£370 Million [Exchange rate £1=A$1.89 currently]. This co*s SPODUMENE RESOURCE: 9.6 Mt @1.3% Li2o vs IRR 14.5 Mt @1.3% Li2o. BOTH SPODUMENE potential producers.
SIBAYNE STILLWATER 50% JV US$490 Million with Ioneer.
Ioneer Mkt Cap: A$1.14 Million on ASX, Australia.
Stage: DFS
Construction 1st half 2022. Financing 6 mths. 1st SHIPMENT 2ND HALF 2024 for LITHIUM HYDROXIDE.
Capex: US$785 Million.
Lithium is in all the news yesterday relating to the lithium auction price achieved by PLS on 14.9.21 and today, the Stillwater lithium JV news today.
Adding to the discussion and providing basic info. The Finniss lithium project RNS/ANN of 15.9.21 is INDUSTRY NEWS as to the time taken to go to production - well known that spodumene capex cost US$60m+ approx and does not have to set up special plants etc which takes more time. Hence, why Stillwater - Ioneer deal is also of interest to show that LITHIUM HYDROXIDE [or even carbonate] PRODUCTION TIMES AND CAPEX is longer and more than just SPODUMENE.
Dyor.
Thur, 16 Sep 2021. Answers to the discussion.
P.S.
--Cant find any co that has had a JV with a large major that included PAYING FOR FULL CAPEX, STUDIES ETC and yet still keep 50% - IRR / Piedmont Deal of US$102m in stages?
--Vincent Mascolo,CEO of IRR in an interview [video] said the govt at the highest level is keen on the project. Public info that IRR*s project will be the first West African lithium project. Also, the govt is keen not to just rely on gold exports. It was reported that Stillwater was keen to do the Ioneer JV lithium deal given the gold price etc [3rd battery metals deal].
--Lithium is in the news. FT reported the Sibayne Stillwater deal and also mentioned the rising prices for lithium carbonate /hydroxide.
-- Per Macquire in reporting on PLS*s auction prices achieved for their spodumene said that from 2025, supply shortages. S & P Global "Cobalt, LITHIUM to move into DEFICIT by 2024, 2025." S & P Global, 28 Apr 2021. So, two sources. To check, type up the S & P Global title.
- GOLD SPIN OUT TO COME FOR IRR.
Current Mkt Cap: £118m @20.72p
Piedmont JV 50% Deal with IRR: US$102m
IRR Cash Position: US$28m.
POST PIEDMONT JV DEAL 50%: 14 Sep 2021 wherein spodumene prices at auction achieved US$2,500 for SC6 [IRR is SC6] vs IRR earlier study US$650 Sellling price to produce US$105m EBITDA [100% of project] so that is NEARLY 4 X MORE.
Swest, you are saying you are not ramping. A few days ago I wrote something and you said that I was deramping. So when you say something it's ok but when others say something then it's wrong lol.
my posts have reasoning i.e spod price - look yourself
Why do you think it will go to 18. Perfectly valid view, but why. Context please. I'm completely open to debate, and to be corrected.
tbh we're likely both more interested in bigger picture.
lets get this demerge done, personally I think the really significant next stage is get this decoupled form the gold and into the pure play market
It is rare to find a miner that;
a). Has a known (plentiful supply of) valuable resource (lithium)
b). Is fully funded to production with a partner who has paid a premium price for shares
c). Will have 50% of production (to sell to whoever they like, into a market that will be crying out for the product)
d). Has a separate gold business which will be spun off (to the benefit of shareholders)
e). Is not under a constant threat of shareholder dilution whilst on the road to production
These are the simple facts, this is an absolute belter of a Company and I have increased my position considerably this week at these bargain prices.
Why? For the very same reason why it went to 19p 3 weeks ago. Just because Piedmont is funding the project and lithium prices going up it doesn't mean the share price will only go up. A lot of people use charts and trade short term and simply cash in after a decent rise so the road to production will be bumpy in terms of the share price. It will do up and down. A lot of people try to find logical sense in the share price behaviour and that itslf is sometimes impossible to do. However I must say the trend for IRR share price is upwards and in a few years it will be much higher than today. It's just it's never that straight forward and there will be plenty more ups and downs.
Baku, you can have a cap doff and a post recommend. You have spoken sense. Fair play. I knew you had it within you.
And to save you the effort of replying, nobody cares Bozi. I know, I know.
A perfectly reasonable post thanks for reply.
IRR has featured unfathomable up and down since I've been in since 2017
Albeit I think the Li market is great atm and we have a secure route to market, those up and down will likely continue. Its mining. Its AIM.
STOP STOP , I KNOW WHAT YOU GUYS ARE GETTING AT. I KNOW THE PRICE GOES UP AND DOWN A LOT AND WE SEEM TO HAVE LOADS OF LOADS OF NEWS BUT IRR NEVER GETS ANYWHERE.
ITS NOT BECAUSE OF ME AND MY RESEARCHERS ITS PROPBABLY BECAUSE OF THE MOON AND THE TIDES.
I KNOW IT LOOKS LIKE A COINCIDENCE BUT ITS NOT ..OK?
TW. utter tosh. garbage